Good evening folks,
That was a rough day for small caps, but overall the market held surprisingly well. As you’ll see in tonight’s letter, we were able to hold very important levels and there were more setups than I anticipated to be part of my Focuslist tonight. Some stocks start to buck the trend in strong sectors. Let’s see this together!
Let’s go!✌️
MARKET REVIEW
RTY weakness continued today and we went down as far as 2% at some point today. We found good support at both the UTL from the recent rally and also the 1698/1713$ support area from last month's consolidation. This area had to hold and we did.
We are clearly not out of the woods yet, as the trend is clearly down and my short position is working, but seeing this level hold today along the Focuslist having some nice setups makes me think that we might not see a retest of the lows here. What if we make a higher low? I am open to every scenario!
Bullish scenario:
IF:
Reclaimed today’s high @ 1746$ with a clear rejection of the support area
Close above 1755$
Close above 21dma
THEN:
Cover short TZA position & open TNA
Can open long exposure but by respecting progressive exposure
Bearish scenario:
IF:
Close below 1698$
THEN:
Add to my TZA trade
MARKET BREADTH
P/C ratio continues to grind higher here, I’m taking notes as we’re relatively high at 1.24.
Stocks > 50dma (MMFI) another good move down
VIX We were not able to breakout that DTL, but we held all kma’s. Tomorrow should bring more clarity here
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
CPE core data tomorrow morning @ 8:30 EST
SECTORS PERFORMANCE
IBB - Biotechnologies is clearly THE leading group here. We were able to hold the 10dma from that false breakout move yesterday. We’ll have to see if we try another breakout attempt in the next few days. That would make our stage 1 breakout for the group.
LEADERS LIST
Overall leaders 40/60 (PRIME Score)
EGY,NEX,CVI,DQ,CEIX,VET,ARCH,BTU,SIGA,DK,INSW,AMPH,ERF,CHK,PBF,PTEN,CLR,LPG,GLNG,MPLN,
Fundamental leaders (FA Score)
MRO,AMR,HDSN,ARCH,SQM,OXY,LTHM,PLYA,DDL,METC,HCC,CPG,PXD,MXL,HST,DEN,HP,CVI,GSM,CF,
Technical leaders (TA Score)
EGY,NEX,CVI,DQ,VET,CEIX,ARCH,NINE,DK,BTU,SIGA,PBF,ERF,INSW,LI,AMPH,CHK,PTEN,LPG,CLR,
Relative Strength 1 Month (1M-RS)
LI,GTLB,DQ,ABCL,VET,RCUS,METC,AMN,ERF,YMM,EGY,CVI,PDD,AMC,QURE,PFGC,ZH,VCYT,COLD,NEX,
Relative Strength 6 Month (6M-RS)
BORR,NEX,NINE,PBF,VTNR,EGY,CEIX,BTU,LNTH,AMR,CVI,OXY,PTEN,AR,HP,GLNG,DK,DQ,KOS,ARCH,
PT PORTFOLIO UPDATE
New positions:
Trimmed positions:
TZA - Trimmed my position when I saw that we were not able to breakout of that support area intraday. We also had a nice wedge forming that we broke the DTL this afternoon. That’s where I decided to sell my first 1/2 position for an 8% profit.
Closed positions:
Alex’s FOCUSLIST
LNTH
A name that I got out yesterday on the false breakout. It has really helped very well today on that 50dma & 63.61$ pivot that I used to enter the previous trade. I am still seeing a retest of the kma’s after our wedge breaks lower in the support area. If we get a breakout of the 65.92$ pivot we would confirm that setup continuation.
Alert - 65.92$
VIR
Another one that I got stopped out yest’d but held very well at the 10dma & recent pivot. I will be putting back my alert at 26.81$ where we would confirm the stage 1 base breakout.
Alert - 26.81$
CELH
A name that I am watching for a while but we are now making a nice BORS setup at the most recent stage 1 base top area. We tried a first time to breakout last month, but we pulled back to the wedge DTL again last week. We tried again early this week but now testing the level on low volume in a very constructive way.
Alert - 69.91$ or the DTL
AMN
Another stage 1 base breakout retesting the B/O level creates a very nice BORS setup. The recent swing high pivot would confirm the setup & continuation
Alert - 113.71$
GTLB
A name that I got stopped out Monday but set up again right below the most recent swing high pivot of 54.5$. If we could retake that pivot, we would confirm the continuation.
Alert - 54.5$
ABCL
Another stage 1 base breakout retesting the B/O level creates a very nice BORS setup. The recent swing high pivot would confirm the setup & continuation
Alert - 10.71$
UTHR
Another stock that had is stage 1 base breakout a few weeks ago, that had a BORL setup which we broke out on volume and now we are creating a nice BO10PB setup right below the most recent high of 242.52$. If we retake that pivot, we would confirm the setup & continuation.
Alert - 242.52$
REFERENCES
Articles on my system:
I really hope that you enjoyed. If you did, please share it so that more folks can be reached and this Newsletter can grow. :)
Hi Alex,
A question about the Russel 2000. Why do you look at the futures and not the actual index? The history on the RTYU2022 only goes back about 4 months.
I have been struggling many days now to find the right chart in tradingview. Isnt it better to use RTY?
Cheers