Alex's daily Update & Focuslist - 08/09
Stock Market Newsletter
Good evening folks,
Let’s get ready for a very important day tomorrow!
The market lose some short-term important levels today but found support at others lower.
NQ was not able to hold 13108$ & 5dma, which indicates that there might be more pressure going forward as we also rejected and closed below this important resistance area.
We found support at the 10dma which is good in the short term, but we’ll have to see if it holds and we base around it or go lower from here.
Again, this market is waiting for Inflation/CPI data TOMORROW MORNING at 8:30 EST which will decide the next few days/week's directions IMO.
What are the levels I’m watching tomorrow?
On the upside, if we get a good CPI reaction, I want the market to reclaim at least 13108$ pivot and get back into this consolidation area. A close above 13356$ would be very ideal. This would indicate a potential continuation higher.
On the downside, I want to see NQ hold the 12801$ top support level. If we get a bad CPI reaction, we want the market to hold that big support area that will be my trigger for my bearish/bullish scenario.
We are now in my bullish scenario until further red flags or consolidation.
I give some leeway to the market to consolidate in a healthy manner before switching to a bearish scenario. Remember, the market & stocks don’t move in straight lines. We have a rally, watch how we react on the pullback and especially on the kma’s retest.
CLOSE below 12655$
CLOSE below 50dma
Threat this reversal as a potential rollover
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma) - Pressure continued today and we closed below the 5dma, but still above 66.60% level.
VIX - Tried to rally a bit intraday, but did not get passed the 10dma. Clearly waiting for CPI tomorrow, but so far a big selloff is not “anticipated”.
USD/CAD - Finding some support back at the 50dma et support area.
US10Y (US 10Y bond yield) - Same here, will have to see if we can stay below 2.845
HYG/IEI (Credit Spread) - Wedge break on the Credit Spread and reclaim bottom of support… will have to see if tomorrow confirms this move.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin) - Crypto found resistance and closed below Monday's big push low and the 50dma. Not the best look tbh.
CL_F (Natural Gas) - Found good support again today with an inside day right below the DTL. If we breakout off that, we could see a continuation of the previous run-up.
ECONOMIC & EARNINGS CALENDAR
(SMH) Semis - Really tripped today… Big move down and found support at the 50dma for now. We are still above the support area, but I would have liked it to hold better above 232.14
(TAN) Solar - Very strong off the 5dma and DTM retest. We almost closed back above 86.01.
(XBI) Biotech - Came under pressure a bit today, but found good support at the 5dma. This is pretty normal action after the big thrust on volume we just saw in the past few days. Let it consolidate a bit.
In addition to these sectors that lead for a few weeks now, I see for the first time in a long time many big sectors breaking out of stage 1 bases and even retested these areas with success on Friday.
UPDATE: As you’ll see, pretty much all these sectors I was watching last night opened strong but faded the move. We are still well above support levels and we’ll have to see Wednesday's action before taking action on any of this.
(CIBR) Cybersecurity - Stage 1 support area retest
(FDN) Internet - Still above stage 1 base support area
(IGV) Software - Stage 1 support area retest
(XME) Metals & Mining - BORS off the previous swing high. good action
(XRT) Retail - What a failed breakout. Testing the stage 1 base support area so far.
(XLF) Financial - Found support off the 5dma and reclaim consolidation high today. Acting good.
TBH, I see very conflicting signals left & right. I will really wait to see what will be the CPI reaction tomorrow morning before making up my mind on this market.
My levels to watch are well established on which I want to take action whatever the reaction is.
Overall leaders (PRIME Score)
Fundamental leaders (FA Score)
Technical leaders (TA Score)
Relative Strength 1 Month (1M-RS)
Relative Strength 3 Month (3M-RS)
Relative Strength 6 Month (6M-RS)
PT PORTFOLIO UPDATE
Tomorrow’s game plan:
Try one or two positions if CPI reaction is good and wait to build profits on those before putting too much exposure. Progressive exposure especially coming from a near all cash portfolio.
If CELH closes above today’s high (hold the PEP news gap) I intend to add back a 1/4 position to it.
A Oil & Gas play that is setting up well with a channel DTL break today on good volume from the 50dma retest. Natural Gas (commodity) is setting up really constructively and some names have breakout in anticipation today.
Alert - 32.70$
Another Oil & Gas play set up well and in fact, tried to breakout from the entry pivot today but closed lower. A channel DTL breakout from the 50dma as well.
Alert - 43.19$
Another Oil & Gas play with a very similar setup as RRC & EQT. Of the 3, this one had the smaller recent run-up from the lows. So I will prioritize RRC & EQT before AR. But still an interesting setup and it can change following the recent ER.
Alert - 37.95$
A potential True Market Leader, along with the whole solar sector that outperform recently. I have not been able to find a proper entry following the PEG, but now that we are retesting the base support area along being in the vicinity of the 10dma, this will be a name that I will try to position into.
Alert - 298.97$
A health industry that we have been trading in the past couple of weeks had a bad earnings reaction despite reporting pretty good numbers. We are at an interesting spot that would give an entry on the retest of the 34.42$ pivot. Notice how we tested it the first time and tried to rally hard only to be sold into. We again found support at that level and closed above the 10dma. We can see that this level is being defended. So if we can still hold that level and breakout of the 35.70$ pivot, I will be interested to try a position.
Alert - 9.79$
🎖️ = Alex’s highest conviction setups
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