Good evening folks,
Just a reminder, if you did not switch to Discord yet, you can refer to that write-up to get the access link.
Let’s go!✌️
MARKET REVIEW
First, you’ll notice tonight that I will follow more closely the NASDAQ market instead of the RUSSEL.
NDX stocks starting to lead off this potential bottom and I always want to follow the leaders, always. Market review & scenarios will now be based on this index going forward.
Overall very constructive day as we tested back the 5&10dma along the 11794$ support level. We were able to hold these levels even after FOMC minutes. We had a pretty good push this afternoon before pulling back before the close. We closed above the 21dma, but not by much.
Tomorrow will be very important to see if we can follow through from this support area retest or not.
I am looking at this larger wedge from the last 2m consolidation forming right below the 50dma. If we can break that DTL, this is really GO time…
We are still below 50, defense first 🛡️
Bullish scenario:
IF:
Close above wedge DTL (1.3%)
Close above today’s high of 11974$
THEN:
Increase exposure in leading sectors if progressive exposure allows me
Bearish scenario:
IF:
Close below 11689$
THEN:
Defense - close long exposure & open SQQQ
MARKET BREADTH
Breadth confirmed nothing today, so we’ll have to see tomorrow for more clarity
VIX This is a potential BIG CHANGE and could mean a real rally in the next few days/weeks. If we can CONFIRM the break below UTL & 26.83$ pivot, I think it will be risk ON and we will be able to press the gas. BUT, tomorrow will be important to see if this will be a shakeout of not.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
SECTORS PERFORMANCE
IBB - Biotechnologies found resistance at 122.8$ resistance level. We’ll have to see if we continue higher on strength, or we retest the 5 or 10dma before going higher. Still leading sector with all the names that make new highs in this group.
TAN - Solar Still working in that wedge.
LEADERS LIST
Overall leaders 40/60 (PRIME Score)
HRB,LI,SIGA,HRMY,STKL,DQ,YMM,CF,HUM,EGY,EVH,PPC,WWE,CLR,MCK,MPLN,AMN,CALM,HALO,ELF,
Fundamental leaders (FA Score)
MRO,AMR,HDSN,ARCH,SQM,OXY,LTHM,PLYA,DDL,METC,HCC,CPG,PXD,MXL,HST,DEN,HP,CVI,GSM,CF,
Technical leaders (TA Score)
SIGA,STKL,HRB,LI,HRMY,EVH,HUM,MPLN,YMM,FUTU,MCK,EGY,CALM,WWE,ELF,DQ,HALO,CNR,INSW,POST,
Relative Strength 1 Month (1M-RS)
CPNG,VCYT,ABCL,ELF,HIMS,STKL,RCUS,ME,HRMY,ACET,SIGA,ZTO,LI,MD,AIV,SQSP,COTY,AMN,HUM,AGEN,
Relative Strength 6 Month (6M-RS)
SIGA,LNTH,VTNR,DQ,CEIX,HDSN,OXY,HRB,SQM,PBF,EGY,AMR,NINE,JKS,STKL,CELH,CVI,AR,BORR,LI,
PT PORTFOLIO UPDATE
Tried a couple of positions intraday, but EOD I needed to reduce exposure and closed them all. ENPH, HRMY & TQQQ.
New positions:
Trimmed positions:
Closed positions:
SWAV - SL hit
GTLB - I will probably regret closing it, but I really needed to reduce exposure EOD. This one lagged the entire day and was not even able to rally this afternoon on market strength. Might look to reenter higher.
Alex’s FOCUSLIST
ABCL
A biotech name that I have a position in, but might give a second entry on a second BORS setup at the stage 1 base breakout support area.
Alert - 10.71$
ENPH
Leader in TAN leading sector. That’s a name that I tried to position a couple of times now if you've been following me for a while. We are now at that base top area again and got a nice retest of the 50dma with a nice reversal of that support area. We are still that larger wedge, but I would be interested to try another entry on last week's pivot of 198.73$. I see an inverted H&S pattern and a series of higher lows working up as well.
One day I’ll get it right… 😅 (if you know, you know hahaha)
Alert - 198.73$
SWAV
I got stopped of it today, but it has held the support area which we are building our BORS setup on. Setup is still valid on the same entry pivot. Always put back your alert ;)
Alert - 199.88$
POST
Working on a nice BO10PB setup on that base-on-base setup at ATH. Not the strongest fundamentals, but this stock is making a new ATH while the market has not bottomed yet, this is a clear signal.
Alert - 84.06$
ARLP
Strongest Coal name on my scan and I really like how we are shaping up at the 50dma here. I will be open to playing the DTL that would confirm the WB setup or 18.78$ pivot for a safer & more conservative entry. I have an interest in coal stocks also because the commodity itself is showing constructive action with 3 weeks tight right at the 10wma. this is an interesting group.
UPDATE: Held the UTL & kma’s AGAIN today and probably made a nice shakeout today. Setup is still valid with a lower recent swing high pivot at 18.78$. FOCUS for me tomorrow.
Alert - 18.78$ + DTL
DLO
A name with strong fundamentals in a potential leading group is trying to breakout from his stage 1 wedge. We tried last week, but came back in to test the 24$ ish support area and found great support. We are trying to breakout again from that wedge, which the recent swing high at 30.73$ would give us confirmation of the WB.
UPDATE: We came back a bit today by back both the DTL & 5dma. This is a good thing because now we have a lower recent swing high to play against. It’s good because our entry could be lower in the base with a better R/R profile.
Alert - 29.42$
REFERENCES
Articles on my system:
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