Good evening folks,
Well, well, well! What a day!
Who was expecting that today…probably not a lot? I can’t say I was expecting it, but I knew we were in an indecision zone and the market has all its chances to sell off last week's bad news. When I saw the early clues at the open I positioned myself very quickly on the long side and it paid off with an EOD bullish scenario triggering.
Let’s go!!✌️🛡️
MARKET REVIEW
After a clear rejection of the 50dma yesterday, the market decided it was time for an epic shakeout. It found support really quickly this morning at the open and after maybe 1 hour of choppy and indecisive action, we rallied hard all day.
We closed the day above:
Resistance area from the last 2 structure highs
12262$ level
50dma
We could not have asked for better action today, now that we trigged my BULLISH scenario from last night. Now we’ll want to see those levels we just broke out hold tomorrow if we get a retest.
Otherwise, remember that despite this big market gain, we have still a lot of resistance ahead of us. This could be a bumpy ride.
📈 scenario:
We are now in my bullish scenario until further red flags or consolidation
IF:
THEN:
📉 scenario:
IF:
CLOSE below 12168$
CLOSE below 50dma
THEN:
Close TQQQ & defense
Alex’s digest:
Let’s look high level at the (+) & (-) of where we stand with today’s action
Leading names held their pivot after yesterday’s squat (+)
NQ closed ABOVE 50dma & resistance area (+)
XBI (biotech) leading sector reclaimed 10dma and BO10PB/BORS setup still active (+)
Market breadth is still breaking out and improving (NNH,>50dma, etc) (+)
Speculative money seems to be waking up (Crypto) (+)
USD & VIX are drifting down (+)
2Y & 10Y bond yield seems to want higher, which would put pressure on growth stocks (-)
Many setups tonight, I had to trim the FL to keep it at a maximum of 10 names (+)
Crude oil (CL_F) getting strong & finding support (-)
More (+) than (-) tonight… confirming the positive action we are seeing on the indices & market breadth
MARKET BREADTH
We had AGAIN big 1M NNH #’s today & 52W NNH on NYSE! (yeah!). We also saw a huge positive Net adv/decl print.
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma) - It was finally a DTL retest yesterday and we followed through on the WB breakout to confirm a breakout in breadth. This is exactly what we wanted to see…
VIX - was never able to reclaim the 5dma and finished near its low. I would like to see a break below 24.33$ pivot tomorrow to really get a final confirmation of a rally from the VIX as well.
USD/CAD - BIG break on USD today, this is definitely helping the equity market. We even closed below the 50dma and right in that support area. Let’s see if we can break below that zone as well.
HYG/IEI - Rejected 1.59$ level & closed below 50dma. This is really good!
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Now a big week on the economic news.
SECTORS PERFORMANCE
The 2 sectors that we follow for a few days/weeks now are showing that they lead the market right now. SMH & XBI are showing positive action at crucial spots.
(SMH) Semis - Semis were able to close above their 50dma & also right in that resistance area. Volume was there as well.
(TAN) Solar is Getting squeezed again against that DTL. Probably be a breakout in Solar tomorrow, watch the ENPH, SEDG, DQ, etc.
(XBI) Biotech Saved the BO10PB setup today with that reversal! Showing that they lead again the market along SMH. I will look to open exposure in the 3X ETF (LABU) tomorrow as this is a leading sector that is set up with one of my preferred technical setups.
LEADERS LIST
Overall leaders (PRIME Score)
CELH,SWAV,CEIX,DQ,LI,AMR,EQT,HP,AMN,QURE,FLNG,CHK,VET,OXY,ARLP,ACET,RRC,SRPT,DVAX,LPG,
Fundamental leaders (FA Score)
MRO,AMR,HDSN,ARCH,SQM,NFE,OXY,LTHM,PLYA,METC,EPR,PXD,CAN,MXL,GSL,HST,HUT,HP,CF,SHO,
Technical leaders (TA Score)
TH,CEIX,CELH,QURE,ARLP,EQT,VET,SWAV,SRPT,LI,ACET,EVH,AMN,CHK,LPG,DQ,OPCH,FLNG,RRC,HP,
Relative Strength 1 Month (1M-RS)
TH,IS,QURE,BEAM,ZLAB,CEIX,RIOT,AHT,AGEN,AMC,CPNG,GTLB,SRRK,AFRM,TSP,GRBK,VET,CELH,PAYO,SWAV,
Relative Strength 3 Month (3M-RS)
SIGA,TH,STKL,LI,DQ,YMM,PDD,DVAX,QURE,HRB,CELH,CD,BEAM,AHCO,ARLP,VTNR,ELF,PLAB,BKSY,CEIX,
Relative Strength 6 Month (6M-RS)
TH,LNTH,SIGA,CEIX,VTNR,HDSN,AMR,NFE,AR,HRB,STKL,CELH,PRCT,EQT,OXY,DQ,GLNG,ARLP,ENPH,SD,
PT PORTFOLIO UPDATE
Alex’s FOCUSLIST
STKL
I really love the big push this one had following the last ER and based for a few weeks which we breakout 2w ago on good volume. We are now consolidating and creating a nice BO10PB setup which we tried to confirm yesterday but came back in. I will use yest’d high to confirm the pattern completion.
Alert - 9.41$
DVAX
One of the strongest biotech names of the past few weeks is now set up for a classic BO10PB after its recent base breakout. When you miss the initial breakout, that’s the kind of good R/R entry I am looking for an entry. I will watch either the DTL or the recent 14.88$ recent swing high pivot for an entry.
UPDATE: We saved the setup today with a gap-up and then retest of the 10dma. I am still looking at the 14.88$ pivot for an entry.
Alert - 14.88$
HALO
Another interesting biotech name that we had in this FL for a while but is now setting up again with this base breakout level retest. We are creating my BORS setup right now and I will be looking at 50.40$ recent swing high pivot first for an entry. We might need a couple of days of consolidation at these levels or we can simply shoot higher as we did 2w ago.
UPDATE: we came back to retest the DTL yesterday and with today's gap up we closed near yest’d high and also very close to my entry pivot @ 50.40. If we gap up above that level tomorrow, 51.14$ can also be used for an entry.
Alert - 50.40$ & 51.14$
GTLB
A software name that a follow and traded for a while is just being supported at every level down and is not really breaking down. I like how we’ve been supported at the 21dma for the 3rd day in a row…RIGHT at the breakout support area. I will watch for the channel DTL breakout or recent swing high pivot for an entry.
UPDATE: I have a position in this name as I entered Friday on the DTL breakout, but the entry pivot is still active.
Alert - DTL + 59.9$
VIR
A biotech name that I had a position on but closed it on that current pullback. We found very good support at the 21dma today and I would look at the initial breakout push high for an entry pivot. (clearer on 65min chart) We are also retesting the stage 1 base breakout area with this pullback.
Alert - 29.68$
CELH
I still think that this one is a TML and I want to re-position in this name if I can after losing my position yesterday. We held the 10dma today, without really leading though. I would still like to play the 76.82$ pivot which I used last week in the Focuslist.
Alert - 76.82$
EVH
A healthcare stock that showed great RS in the recent week and had a good pullback that shook a lot of ppl out last week. We are now seeing a retest of the breakout & DTL area and still within the wedge. I would look at the 33.15$ recent swing high for the entry pivot.
Alert - 33.15$
FLNG
We are still in the base with this one, so nothing is guaranteed, but it has shown a lot of RS recently and just pushed out of his DTL wedge breakout yesterday in a very bad market. I would look at recent consolidation 29.08$ high for a possible entry.
Alert - 29.08$
SWAV
We tried to breakout off the pivot Friday, only to come right back at it yesterday. I had a position but lost it. I would look at the breakout high as a potential entry pivot to re-position in this name.
Alert - 214.44$
LABU
As explained in the sector section, the biotech sector is 1 of the 2 leading sector right now for me. XBI is setting up with a perfect BO10PB technical setup at an important level, so I want to get involved and get exposure in this sector going forward by opening a long position in the 3X ETF LABU. I will be looking at yesterday's high 9.69$ or the DTL for an entry
Alert - DTL + 9.69$
REFERENCES
Articles on my system:
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