Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist (paid)

Market update & Focuslist - 06/15

Evening Market Update & Strategic Insights

Jun 16, 2025

∙ Paid

Thought of the day

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MARKET ANALYSIS

That Iran/Israel war is the wild card, and certainly adding a lot of noise right now. I’ll try the most I can to keep that noise out of my process, and focus on price action only.

We are currently slightly above the 10Y average, so still early in the larger trend. With the price right in the 21dma-structure, the liquid leaders stocks acting well, and short-term breadth extension getting oversold, I continue to stay engaged and execute at the 21dma-structure in the leading stocks of my universe.

If the QQQs are breaking down below their 21dma-structure, then I’ll look for a longer pullback, but so far we are above a rising structure, so the trend is still in place.

With MCSI back in a downtrend, I will look to be less aggressive until we reconfirm the hook-up.

Market Cycle Statistics (Trend > 21dma-structure)

Cycle Count (days): 36
10Y cycle average (days): 33.32
Z-Score: -+0.09

BREADTH

MCSI (McClellan Summation Index) - MCSI hook-down and retesting the 10dma line. Breadth contracting, so might be more choppy or even point to a longer pullback if price confirm the structure breakdown.
short-term breadth extension is getting oversold.