Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist (paid)

Market update & Focuslist - 06/16

Evening Market Update & Strategic Insights

Jun 17, 2025

∙ Paid

Thought of the day

There was a point where I stopped chasing those 300–400% YTD returns.

Yes, they’re impressive. And I respect the few who can hit those numbers — it takes serious skill, discipline, and guts. But let’s be honest… it also comes with a ton of stress most people don’t talk about.

To sustain those kinds of returns, you have to size up aggressively, push your edge to the limit, and live with the emotional weight of massive swings — both up and down. You’re constantly in the fire: glued to screens, reacting fast, barely disconnecting. It’s not just a strategy — it becomes a lifestyle. One that can quickly burn you out if you're not wired for it.

Over the years, I’ve learned to respect not just my strategy, but my own psychological bandwidth. I know the kind of risk I’m comfortable with, and what allows me to stay consistent, clear-headed, and in control.

What excites me now is doing 50–100% returns, year after year, with clean risk management, trading liquid names, and avoiding the tail-risk blowups. That’s how I stay in the game, outperform most funds, and live a life I actually enjoy outside the charts.

That’s not a step down — that’s a sustainable edge.

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MARKET ANALYSIS

The market appears to confirm the uptrend's re-confirmation here, with the QQQs confirming a daily reversal off the 21-day moving average structure bounce. Despite overnight war volatility, the setup remains. We'll have to see overnight if something happens in the Middle East to spook the market, but so far, that's what we have, despite the futures pullback of around -0.5%.

We have BTC breaking out from same setup with a higher low structure.
Credit Spreads/VIX looks good
MCO hooked back up.

Market Cycle Statistics (Trend > 21dma-structure):

Cycle Count (days): 37
10Y cycle average (days): 33.32
Z-Score: -+0.12

BREADTH

MCSI (McClellan Summation Index) - MCO hook-up, but MCSI still in downtrend now below the 10dma.
short-term breadth extension hook-up from Friday’s oversold tap.