Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist (paid)

Market update & Focuslist - 06/24

Evening Market Update & Strategic Insights

Jun 25, 2025

∙ Paid

Thought of the day

Secure Your Gains — Manage Open Heat

One of the most overlooked metrics in trading is your Open Heat — the unrealized profit you’re exposed to if every stop-loss gets hit.

It’s easy to ignore when things are going well. But if you don’t track it, you’ll give back chunks of your equity curve without even realizing where the damage is coming from.

The pros? They manage that heat actively — not reactively.

That means:

Raising stops as trades progress.

Trimming into strength when names hit logical stretch zones (2x ATR from the 21dma, 5x from the 50dma, etc.).

Freeing up mental bandwidth so they’re not hostage to every tick. You don’t need to predict tops, you just need to stop assuming your unrealized gains are safe.

Managing Open Heat isn’t about fear. It’s about staying in control of your equity curve before the market decides for you.

Secure it while it’s yours, and the odds still in your favor.

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I would have killed for such an opportunity when I started trading! 🔥

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MARKET ANALYSIS

Market Cycle Statistics (Trend > 21dma-structure):

Cycle Count (days): 42
10Y cycle average (days): 19.33
Z-Score: -+0.99

TLMM DASHBOARD S&P 500 (MODEL: UPTREND ATTEMPT)

Daily reversal off the 21dma-structure support.

Strong MCSI hook-up, confirming the breadth expansion. Still below a declining 10dma, so we’ll need to see if it follows through.

Short-term breadth is already pretty overbought at more than 80% above their 5/10dma.

Everything looks good for a potential new leg higher into ATH, but keep in mind that ST breadth for your exposure. We’ll have a good confirmation if MCSI reclaim its 10dma as well.

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