Market update & Focuslist - 06/25

Evening Market Update & Strategic Insights

PLEASE NOTE: THERE WILL BE NO Market update & Focuslist SENT TOMORROW (Thursday, 6/26).

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Thought of the day

Red days are part of swing trading—get used to it. Stocks don’t move up in straight lines, and if you're panicking every time they breathe, you're never going to catch the real moves.

Define your short, intermediate, and long-term structure—whatever fits your style—and once price is trending above that, let it work. Unless your stop is hit or you’re not getting traction on entry, don’t micromanage it.

Track your Open Heat, give your equity curve room to wiggle, and stop trying to control every tick. That’s not trading—that’s emotional damage.

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MARKET ANALYSIS

Market Cycle Statistics (Trend > 21dma-structure):

• Cycle Count (days): 43

• 10Y cycle average (days): 19.33

• Z-Score: -+1.03

TLMM DASHBOARD S&P 500 (MODEL: PULLBACK)

Price failed to follow through on yesterday’s breakout, the MCSI hook-up failed with a hook-down today, and breadth extended got rejected as it became overbought. Not the ideal picture we wanted to see today…

Let’s see tomorrow, as price remains above the 21dma-structure, and despite seeing a lot of fakeouts in the growth stocks today, we haven’t seen real red flags yet. We could still be in the chop market we’ve been in for the past 3 weeks.

With that MCSI hook back down, the TLMM switched back on a PULLBACK signal today. Breadth is contracting, and chop / hard penny market is expected.

MARKET INTERNALS

Credit Spreads (SHY/HYG)

Downtrend below declining 21dma-structure.

VIX (Volatility S&P 500)

Downtrend below declining 21dma-structure.

10Y Bond Yields (TNX)

Retest and rejection, looks like a new downtrend might start?

/BTC (Bitcoin)

21dma-structure reclaim. Long setup engaged…let’s see if it can follow through this time.

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Sector breakdowns, focus setups with alert levels, fresh scans, my latest portfolio moves, and a look at the week ahead.

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