Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist (paid)

Market update & Focuslist - 06/29

Evening Market Update & Strategic Insights

Jun 30, 2025

∙ Paid

Thought of the day

One thing every swing trader needs to come to terms with: there’s no such thing as certainty—only calculated risk.

You're never going to have a guarantee. What you can have is a repeatable system, a clear framework, and a process that tilts the odds in your favor over time.

That’s what gives you the confidence to press when the picture is clear. You've seen this setup before. You know how it behaves in strong conditions. The entry, the structure, the market context—it all lines up. That’s when size isn't scary. It’s strategic.

You won’t win every trade, and that’s fine. What matters is that each risk taken is based on positive expectancy—meaning, over a series of similar trades, you're statistically coming out ahead.

That’s what gives you staying power. The ability to say, “If this one doesn’t work, the next one will. And the one after that.” You’re not swinging at everything—you’re swinging at your pitch.

The real edge isn’t just the setup—it’s your ability to consistently execute it with discipline, trust, and the right mindset around risk.

PrimeTrading is an equity SWING trading community to learn & trade alongside experienced traders. It's like sneaking into a trader's POD, where you can see us execute & discuss...but in ours, you can also interact and ask questions.

I would have killed for such an opportunity when I started trading! 🔥

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MARKET ANALYSIS

Market Cycle Statistics (Trend > 21dma-structure):

Cycle Count (days): 45
10Y cycle average (days): 19.33
Z-Score: -+1.12

TLMM DASHBOARD S&P 500 (MODEL: UPTREND)

TLMM Trend Model back on UPTREND for the S&P500. With price breaking out to a new recent high, with MCSI in uptrend above the 10dma, we can be optimistic into next week. The only thing is that breadth is extended, and price remains extended and overbought. However, our job is to follow that trend's re-confirmation, especially with breadth expanding again after four weeks of digestion.