Market update & Focuslist - 07/01

Evening Market Update & Strategic Insights

Thought of the day

If taking a drawdown or getting an EC hit shakes you to the core every time, this game might not be for you. That stuff’s part of it.

What actually matters is what you do after. Do you start forcing? Revenge trading? Or do you take the hit, slow down, and get your clarity back?

You won’t avoid the bumps. But how you handle them—that’s where you either grow or stay stuck.

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MARKET ANALYSIS

The market remains in an uptrend, with prices grinding higher, and the MCSI still improving above the 10-day moving average.

However, with ST and MT breadth ext. being overbought, and price extended from the 21- and 50-day moving averages, that’s not the spot to engage. I want to at least see price coming back in the 21dma area, with a flush in the stocks above their 5dma.

QQQ Price Cycle Statistics (Trend > 21dma-structure):

• Cycle Count (days): 47

• 10Y cycle average (days): 19.53

• Z-Score: +1.4

• ATR Extension from 21 DMA: 1.91 (ok)

• ATR Extension from 50 DMA: 5.43 (extended)

TLMM DASHBOARD NASDAQ (MODEL: UPTREND)

MARKET INTERNALS

Credit Spreads (SHY/HYG)

Downtrend below declining 21dma-structure.

VIX (Volatility S&P 500)

Downtrend below declining 21dma-structure.

10Y Bond Yields (TNX)

Downtrend below declining 21dma-structure.

/BTC (Bitcoin)

Failed to hold the 21dma, but still in structure…let’s see if it can find support or we breakdown from here. No setup yet.

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Sector breakdowns, focus setups with alert levels, fresh scans, my latest portfolio moves, and a look at the week ahead.

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