Market update & Focuslist - 07/14
Evening Market Update & Strategic Insights
Thought of the day
It’s never really about being right or making perfect predictions. What matters is recognizing when the odds have shifted and being willing to adjust without ego.
The best traders aren’t the ones with the highest win rate — they’re the ones who respond well when they’re wrong, who stay objective, and who know when to lean in as the market starts to favor them, or lean out when it doesn’t.
It’s that awareness, not anticipation, that keeps you aligned with what’s happening.
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MARKET ANALYSIS
The market is extended, with long-term breadth remaining high; however, the price is coming into support, while short-term breadth is near oversold. In that case, I want to stay open-minded and focus on how the leading stocks will act in support.
The potential for a pullback to start is here, especially with how Credit Spreads & VIX are looking with structural reclaim. MCSI is still showing that breadth is contracting with a 10-day moving average break today.
Price is priority for me, so if tomorrow we see a bounce in the 10dma-structure, leading stocks are acting well, and setups are there, you certainly don’t want to completely lock you out of the market either. We just need to be more tactical about overnight new risks and the expectations for the move ahead.
QQQ Price Cycle Statistics (Trend > 21dma-structure):
Cycle Count (days): 56
10Y cycle average (days): 19.53
Z-Score: +1.86
ATR Extension from 21 DMA: 1.84 (not extended)
ATR Extension from 50 DMA: 5.18 (extended)
TLMM DASHBOARD NASDAQ (MODEL: UPTREND)
This section gives a full top-down read on the market using the TLMM dashboard. It combines Price action, Momentum, and Breadth to help you understand what’s happening under the hood—not just on the indexes.
The Trend Model ties it all together, signaling whether we’re in a risk-on or risk-off phase. Read this first to stay aligned with the market environment before diving into setups.
MARKET INTERNALS
10dma-structure reclaim. Need to watch closely tomorrow if it follow-through, but it’s a red flag for sure.
Still below sturcture, but potential higher low being made. Another red flag to watch tomorrow.
10Y Bond Yields (TNX)
Powerful bounce on the retest. Looking like rates higher from here.
/BTC (Bitcoin)
First 10dma-structure retest following the breakout. Still healthy action.
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Sector breakdowns, focus setups with alert levels, fresh scans, my latest portfolio moves, and a look at the week ahead.
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