Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist (paid)

Market update & Focuslist - 07/20

Evening Market Update & Strategic Insights

Jul 21, 2025

∙ Paid

Ride the Trend — Don’t Guess the End

One of the biggest opportunity killers I see — and honestly one of the fastest ways traders destroy wealth — is trying to guess the end of a trend.
Whether it’s short-term or long-term, that urge to call the top or bottom way too early comes from a place of wanting to be right instead of staying aligned with strength. And more often than not, it leads to cutting winners short, stepping in front of momentum, or forcing trades that aren’t there.
The truth is, strong trends usually run longer and further than most expect. Your job isn’t to outsmart the market — it’s to ride the wave while it’s moving in your favor, and manage risk when the structure starts to break down.
Stick with what’s working. Let price tell the story — not your opinion.

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MARKET ANALYSIS

Let’s keep it simple tonight.

Price is still holding above the rising 21-day moving average structure. Breadth continues to expand, but the recent strength hasn’t been enough to turn the MCSI back up — which keeps the Trend Model in pullback mode.

What we need to see now is the broad market catching up to the weighted indices. Starting the week with solid breadth is a good sign, but if this divergence persists, it could start raising eyebrows.

That said, there’s no need to jump the gun. Let’s stay focused on managing our PF positions until the market gives us a reason to shift gears.

As always, the music will stop eventually — but we’re not there yet.