Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist (paid)

Market update & Focuslist - 07/28

Evening Market Update & Strategic Insights

Jul 29, 2025

∙ Paid

Trying to time the exact bottom or top is a fool’s game — one driven more by ego than edge. And sure, every trader wants to be the hero who nails the reversal candle to the tick. But the truth is, you don’t need to be perfect to trade well. You just need to recognize when the odds are starting to shift in your favor.
That’s where real edge comes from — not guessing the turning point, but stacking the evidence until the picture becomes clear enough to act with conviction. For me, that edge is built on three pillars: breadth extensions, price action in the major indices, and the behavior of Liquid Leaders. When those align, it’s not about prediction anymore — it’s about probability.
This is the core of my system. I’m not trying to be the first in. I’m trying to be early enough, with size, when the setup starts to lean in my favor. That’s when you take calculated risk — not out of hope, but because the tape is starting to confirm the turn.
The best part? You don’t have to catch the exact bottom to make serious money. If you’re consistently stepping in near inflection points where the odds tilt back toward strength — especially after a washout — that’s more than enough.
So stop obsessing over precision. Stop trying to be the trader who calls every top and bottom. Focus instead on recognizing when the environment is shifting, when risk-reward is resetting, and when it’s your turn to press.
Because in the end, it’s not about being right at the extremes — it’s about acting decisively when the evidence is finally on your side. That’s how you survive the chop and catch the turns that matter.

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MARKET ANALYSIS

Price above the rising 21dma-structure
Breadth is expanding (MCSI uptrend > 10dma)
ST & MT breadth extension is not overbought, and stocks above the 5-day moving average cooled off today.
Momentum 5-day ratio hook-up.
VIX & Credit Spreads downtrend below declining 21dma-structure

The market remains in a solid uptrend, with no red flags present, although it is still extended in both price & time above the 21-day moving average structure. Until we break that structure or raise some red flags in Liquid Leaders, there is no need to anticipate the end of that trend.