Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist (paid)

Market update & Focuslist - 08/03

Evening Market Update & Strategic Insights

Aug 04, 2025

∙ Paid

Just a quick note to let you know I’ll be on vacation from August 10 to 23. That means there will be no Daily Reports during that time — we’ll pick things back up on August 24.

Thanks for your understanding — looking forward to coming back recharged and ready to hit the markets with fresh energy. 🙌

Alex’s PF performance. - July 2025 📑🛡️

MTD ( +7.4% )
YTD ( +62.1% )
YTD benchmark QQQ (+10.52%)

Hey guys!

I hope you had the month you expected. If not, review your trades to identify what went well and what didn't. Based on that, make sure to define some action to improve your rules for the next market cycle.

Decent performance this month, as I feel I left some profits on the table early in the month, not being able to catch the more speculative stuff, but I closed the month very strong, catching names like ALAB, CRDO, SMCI, and BITX at their 21dma-structure pullback.

My best trading was the last week or so. By the way, I trimmed into strength on these solid trades and avoided new exposure attempts in a late-stage market, unlike before. That's good discipline, and something to reinforce for the next market cycle as well.

I just calculated my monthly seasonality, and it's an interesting picture... May to July is very strong for my style since 2020, Aug to October is usually pretty weak. So I'll make sure to be aware of that statistic going into August. I'll probably be less active and wait for the perfect pitch, knowing it could be a choppier month in general for me.

MTD stats:

A bit too much trades again at 46, so I'll try to bring it down a notch
Highest R of the year, but skewed by very tight ALAB entry.
2nd best RRR of the year, so very good trading mainly caused by high win rate and low average losses.
Kept losses small, with -1.7% average and -4.5% max...that made all the difference.

Overall solid month for the stats, with only the high number of trades, and my average gain being a bit low for my taste.

Next market cycle improvements:

I'll play around with using 1/4 trims instead of 1/3, and adjusting my trimming extensions based on the 21dma only. I am currently testing 2x, 2.5x, and 3x for 1/4 trim each, and a final runner against the 21dma-structure on weakness. That gives me more control and granularity over my trimming process, and easier to scale down gradually positions instead of losing too much size too quickly.

Cheers HAGN!

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MARKET ANALYSIS

MCSI declining below the 10dma (contracting breadth)
Breadth ext. very short-term oversold (stocks>5dma), but ST & MT not oversold yet.
QQQE below declining 21dma-structure
VIX & Credit Spreads both spiked above their 21dma-structure, giving another reason to stay on the sidelines.
TLMM Tend model on Pullback signal. (day #3)

With the current picture, that’s a clear no-trading signal for me going into this week. Something to keep in mind, tho , we are now below the declining 21dma-structure, and VST breadth is deeply oversold...so we could see a snap-back rally into the declining structure early this week. We'll observe a retest of the structure…do we reject and re-confirm the downtrend (more extended pullback)? Or we start to create constructive action with a higher low or a structure reclaim.

Time will tell, one day at a time.