Market update & Focuslist - 09/04
Evening Market Update & Strategic Insights
Thought of the day
Choppy markets can be a slow leak: it drains capital, but the larger cost is conviction.
Your job is not to outsmart a sideways market; it’s to define one and stand aside. Act only when price structure and breadth expansion agree.
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MARKET ANALYSIS
Today was constructive, with many recent leaders breaking out of tight low cheat ranges up the right side. We still need a lot of confirmation for the broad NDX. Still, today proved to be constructive with a follow-through on yesterday’s MCO hook-up (breadth improving), and also breadth extensions having that strong hook-up after VST being oversold.
That’s the typical anticipation market setup I go for, and that’s why I pushed myself to put some risk today.
Now, whether it will follow through on job reports tomorrow is another question. Every new trend starts with an anticipation setup...but not all anticipation setups lead to a new uptrend. That's the mindset a trader needs.
Let’s see if we get that MCSI hook-up, and QQQE reclaiming the 21dma to initiate a potential new leg higher.
TLMM Model: regime = Correction. (but anticipation setup based on breadth hook-up from OS)
Implications: Run lighter, but test the market. Increase exposure if we get MCSI+Price confirmation.
What flips it: A breadth thrust, MCO > 0 with MCSI flattening/reclaiming its 10-DMA, and QQQE back above the 21dma-structure.
TLMM DASHBOARD NASDAQ
MARKET INTERNALS
Rejected at weekly structure.
Rejected at weekly structure.
10Y Bond Yields (TNX)
Downtrend below weekly structure with a potential breakdown in progess.
/BTC (Bitcoin)
Still below weekly-structure, but the base top area holds.
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Sector breakdowns, focus setups with alert levels, fresh scans, my latest portfolio moves, and a look at the week ahead.
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