PrimeTrading daily Update & Focuslist - 05/13 🖊️
Trend is still down, but positive action! - FREE PREMIUM CONTENT PREVIEW 🎁
Disclaimer: This newsletter is not financial or investing advice. The information is for education purposes only and reflects only my own operation.
Today was an interesting and positive day as we had a good rally right before close, while every breadth indicator was at or near extreme levels and with VIX crashing after trying to breakout on the upside.
It’s a step in the right direction, but we’ll have to see tomorrow if we follow through (futures look good so far) or not.
In order to play this bounce, I want to see:
SPX close above 3964$
Close above 5dma
bonus: close above channel DTL
These 3 points, plus individual names setting up and breadth improving intra-day.
We STILL live below all kma’s, meaning it’s RISK-OFF environment for me currently, but it can change quickly if we have a good day and holding above these levels of interest.
Maybe we’ll have a small ST rally here without conviction to close the week, or we really get our final flush that would bring breadth at extreme levels along a spike on VIX above 38. Keep an open mind.
We’ll see if we get that small rally as I was talking tomorrow to close the week. If we close above 5dma & DTL though, I would not qualify it as “without conviction” tough loll
Overall decent day for breadth considering the flush this morning. We had green Adv/Decl. I specially liked the VIX crash to close the day where we were really at the verge of taking off above 35. Expected volatility down, this is good!
Tomorrow 10:00 we get the consumer sentiment report which can move the market. Not the biggest release, but still have to be aware.
Except for Miners & Metals, we just had a pretty un-eventful day with a pretty large participation. We’ll have too see if some sectors firm up in the next few days, but Home Builders catch my eye as being almost green MTD. Only one this close apart for Energy.
CL_F Making a new attempt to breakout of that wedge. Some Oil names setting up well at their 21dma and I have 2-3 names in tonight FocusList. We could have a nice push if Crude futures are taking off from here.
No new positions today. I remain 100% in cash and wait for the market conditions to improve.
New positions:
Trimmed positions:
Closed positions:
8 names in the FocusList tonight. This is also positive for the overall market health along today’s action.
If alert trig and we have good market action, I might take the trade but treat it as a day trade only, unless we close above the 5dma, 3964$ or DTL AND I have a cushion on the position.
If you take the trade before market as reached the 5dma, be on guard when we get there, as it can reject the market and your positions can come back in quick.
CC - trigged yesterday’s alert today, but came back in the channel once the market came under pressure. Still above 10dma and acting super strong. If we can get decent market action, watch for yesterday’s high as being a nice entry on this name. The DTL can also be played for a more aggressive entry.
INSW - A bit of a hiccup today, but still holding above his breakout level & 21dma. 22.98$ pivot is still the weekly entry from this wknd weekly newsletter edition, but I see a nice wedge forming with the DTL being the alert level for tomorrow.
AMR - with a nice reaction also today from the 21dma retest again.164.69 level is my entry pivot to confirm the breakout level retake. Coal futures still very strong.
VLO - One of the current Oil leader, and never gave too much on this market sell-off. We were able to print 3 very tight days following Monday ugly action. I like that double bottom at the 10dma with tightening action. DTL is the aggressive entry or you could play 127.64$ pivot for a weekly entry as well.
CVI - Another Oil name setting up very well at his 10dma for tomorrow I like the HL and recent retest of the breakout level. 31.45 pivot is my alert level.
AN - I played the recent breakout out of his recent larger WB. We pulled back on the recent market sell-off but held the breakout level very well. The DTL is my alert level from this BORL setup.
MAT - Pretty much the same setup as AN. 25.77 pivot is my alert level.
PBF - Another Oil name that I played recently but held very well his most recent failed breakout with a higher low at the 21dma.
I’ll start tracking top fundamental stocks with highest 6 months Relative Strength, holding up the best short term. (40% 1M-RS + 60% 6M-RS ratio).
During market correction, you want to keep track of these names as they will be the one to watch when conditions improves.
Relative Strength - CHART OF INTEREST:
AVT, SIMO
Relative Strength 40/60 - TOP 20:
VTNR,VLO,LNTH,CVI,DK,MDVL,CVE,SIMO,CTRA,LPG,MPC,ARLP,SBLK,DINO,AMR,XOM,OXY,MCK,VAL,WTI
Relative Strength 1 Month - TOP 20:
MDVL,VTNR,AVT,AN,VLO,SIMO,DINO,MAT,CVI,DK,WTI,CAL,R,CC,ATEN,CVE,LPX,PSX,SNDR,GRBK
Articles on my system:
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