Disclaimer: This newsletter is not financial or investing advice. The information is for education purposes only and reflects only my own operation.
To say the least, itโs very disappointing action today. I talked a lot in the last few days that we were only in a reaction rally, and we could roll-over anytime, but a >4% move right from the openโฆI was not expecting such short lived rally.
It clearly tells us that this market is not yet ready and that we will probably see more pain before we have a meaningful rally to play for a swing.
Ok, now letโs watch the levels of interest.
Iโll be first looking at 3858$ level which was last Thursday low. So TECHNICALLY, the rally is still alive above that level. (yeah rightโฆloll)
Then, in order, these levels might act as support on the downside:
3832$ (2% move)
3722$ (5% move)
3675$ (6% move)
For now though, weโre back BELOW ALL KMAโS, so this is a full RISK-OFF market for me right now
We pretty much erased every yesterday gains, and then some.
VIX spiking above 30, this is a red flag.
P/C ratio still not spiking, so no real fear in this market yet.
McClellan ratio back in negative and now HAVE A LOT OF ROOM on the downside.
Nothing of importance tomorrow.
Thatโs like a complete switch from yesterday. Not one single sector green today.
Honestly, Solar & Clean Energy really impresses me being almost flat on such day. Iโm taking notes here and weโll let these stocks build bases, but they might be sectors to watch when selling pressure comes off eventually.
Retail & Consumer lead the move down today following WMT earnings. Also, interesting to see Staples being one of the big loser as normally we see this sector being strong in recession type of economy.
Iโll be completely transparent, I went too heavy on this reaction rally and was expecting a few more days up being able to trim & close positions for a couple days swing. I was not expecting such a rug pull like that today. I still make mistake, but I use them to hone my craft and reinforce system rules.
Thanks to my progressive exposure rules, I had SL in places, so I only lost my unrealized gains and not any capital. But still, it sucks.
Tonight, youโll see that I add a new section in my Portfolio section here. The MAXIMUM exposure rules (Market & Portfolio based) that will calculate automatically based on both the market health & my progressive exposure (open profits which allows me to finance new risk).
This will keep me accountable and retain me to increase exposure too fast based only on my progressive exposure rules.
Ok, back to businessโฆ with my ass on both my hands ๐คฃ Seriously, weโll now have to wait that another opportunity, which we donโt know when for now.
New positions:
Trimmed positions:
Closed positions:
Only 1 name in the Focuslist tonight. As progressive exposure rules requires, could only be a quick day trade for me.
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