Good evening folks,
Hope you had a good day and enjoyed the FED & Jerome Powell show. Now that FED drama is behind us, let’s focus to see if we will get a rally or more selling ahead.
Let’s go!✌️
MARKET REVIEW
Independent of what the news was today, market traded in a volatile way following the news at 14:00 and until the end of day. When you have such big news, you want to keep out of the market or trade very small until the volatility resorb or you make yourself at risk of getting chopped.
That being said, market did not sold off, but did not rallied either, it leaves us in the same indecision area we were for the last 2 days. We
Held 1709$ level on the downside
Not able to breakout of the 1744$ pivot
Still below 5dma
Tonight though, we’ll be able to establish Bullish/Bearish (B/B) scenarios depending on tomorrows & next few days action.
Bullish scenario (🐂):
IF:
Close above 1755$ (today’s high)
Close above 5dma
THEN:
Put back 20% back long exposure if good setup trig
Cover short position
Bearish scenario (🐻):
IF:
Close below 1709$
THEN:
Add short exposure
MARKET BREADTH
Stocks > 50dma jumped a bit today and now back at 18% along 1500 net advances, which is some positive. NNL across the board, but that’s what we see on choppy day. Tomorrow will give us more indications.
VIX crashed following FED, this is a pretty big divergence that we have to take not of. We closed the day strong and held 28$, but that was still a big drop. (-10%)
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
SECTORS PERFORMANCE
Some strength across the board today outside of Energy & Oil wish commodity put pressure on. Clean, Solar & Internet being the leaders. Solar continues to show RS.
Crude Oil (CL_F) selling continues and now at the 21dma and right into the support area. We’ll have to see if it’s a BORL setup or we fail again tomorrow and continue lower. Note that lower Oil prices will be good for the economy and equities. That’s a good sign for the market that Oil pressure getting off.
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
Still managing my TZA position right now. If my bullish scenario trigs tomorrow, I will cover it, otherwise still keeping it as we’re below the RTY 5dma.
Tried to day trade CHS for a small gain and also took 2 b/e trade on TZA in trying to add to my position.
New positions:
Trimmed positions:
Closed positions:
DAILY FOCUSLIST
7 names in the Focuslist tonight
We begin to see good R/R setup in names that showed RS in the last few days. If the market has to bottom here, those will be the first one to offer good entries. For me to take those trades, remember that my 🐂 scenario will have to unfold first.
Sectors & Industries distribution of Focuslist
Also want to remember you that with the 20$/m premium membership comes a SLACK channel access that you can join to chat with me directly & the community of people trading the PT trading system. Enjoy it while it last, because this private access will not be this cheap as the community grows.
PREMIUM PAID MEMBERS SECTION BELOW 🔒👇
EGY
40% run that led to a pullback as the market was correcting. We are now looking at a retest of the base breakout level which offered very good support today from the 21dma. I will be looking at the DTL or pivot to confirm the BORL setup.
Alert - DTL & 8.19$
ENPH
Strongest solar name and currently the potential leader I’m looking at. We found support for 3 days at the 50dma with higher lows. We can see that we created a retest out of our larger wedge and also a retest of the 185$ish support area.
Alert - DTL & 192.9$
HDSN
Sometime you need multiple try to get in a name. That might be the case with HDSN that never was able to breakout due to market weakness weight. I will be looking at the same pivot I used 2w ago for an entry.
Alert - 10.29$
CHS
Showed big RS in the last 2 days and was not able to hold the trade EOD due to exposure rules. I will be looking at today’s high for a potential re-entry. We are dealing with a potential stage 1 breakout here on this retail name.
Alert - 5.76$
HALO
Biotech name that his setting up nicely after a 25% run. We just had a 2 legs pullback to retest prior breakout area & 50dma. I’m treating this setup as a BORL setup and looking at the DTL & pivot for confirmation.
Alert - DTL & 45.2$
CAL
Went on a huge run post-ER only to find resistance top of base. Now it is digesting it gains and letting kma's catch up while it consolidate right below resistance area. Support at 21dma and huge RS yest’d. I also see last 2 days being a shakeout below recent swing low.
Alert - DTL & 29.16$
CVI
One of current Oil name leader that is setting up for a potential BO10PB with higher lows. Note that Crude Oil (CL_F) have to stop his pullback for me to consider getting some Oil exposure back. But if I do, this would be the name.
Alert - DTL & 41.56$
RELATIVE STRENGTH
I’ll start tracking top fundamental stocks with highest 6 months Relative Strength, holding up the best short term. (40% 1M-RS + 60% 6M-RS ratio).
During market correction, you want to keep track of these names as they will be the one to watch when conditions improves.
Relative Strength 40/60 - TOP 20:
CVI,WTI,EGY,PBF,BORR,ESTE,CPG,TWI,HDSN,NOG,SM,VET,LPI,OVV,ERF,TALO,MTDR,SIGA,AR,DINO,
Relative Strength 1 Month - TOP 20:
PDD,BKSY,LPI,SIGA,LI,YMM,BZ,PLAB,ESTE,CHPT,SM,ERF,ENPH,WTI,CVI,NOG,SEDG,NNDM,EGY,OVV,
REFERENCES
Articles on my system:
I really hope that you enjoyed. If you did, please share it so that more folks can be reached and this Newsletter can grow. :)