Good evening folks,
Market just put a very classic selloff day following FED attempted rally. Nasty move…
It was a big day today, I’m up since 2.am this morning, so please excuse my typo’s tonight! :)
Let’s go!✌️
MARKET REVIEW
I guess that was not the bullish reversal that many people expected today, specially after a spark of hope yesterday. That’s why you always have to be prepared for both scenario and bend with what the market is telling you.
We trigged last night bearish scenario this morning right at the open. It was not hard to play the short side or stay on the side line when you’re ready to take action when a certain situation happens.
RTY down more than 4.65% in a very controlled selling all day. I don’t sense any fear or climax for now, so we’ll have to be careful as the probability of a meltdown scenario increasing here.
I’m looking at a couple levels from pre & during coving rally of 2020 for potential support.
1651$ (today’s close)
1594$ (3.3%)
1527$ (7.5%)
Bullish scenario:
IF:
Close above 1698$ (3% move)
Close above 5dma
THEN:
Put back 20% back long exposure if good setup trig
Cover short position
Bearish scenario:
Already in bearish scenario
MARKET BREADTH
Everything’s bad tonight. NNH, Net Adv, Stocks > MA…McClellan -250 and even P/C ratio not spiking and still below 1 @ 0.7.
VIX found support at the 30$ level and gapped up this morning. We tested Monday’s high and close in the upper half of the day. This chart really worries me and this is setting up for a possible meltdown scenario if we breakout of this 37/38$ area. A possible bottom will need a spike above 40 and even in the 50’s imo.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
SECTORS PERFORMANCE
Everything got sold into, expect for gold miners, which make sense with the current inflationary story going on.
Crude Oil (CL_F) was able to hold 115/116$ support area today with a big reversal (no volume…), BUT, we opened down below that area on the futures. Will be interesting to see if selling pressure continues tomorrow or we can reclaim that support area.
HIGH RELATIVE STRENGTH LIST
Tracking the top fundamental stocks with highest 6 months Relative Strength, holding up the best short term. (40% 1M-RS + 60% 6M-RS atio).
During market correction, you want to keep track of these names as they will be the one to watch when conditions improves.
Relative Strength 40/60 - TOP 20:
EGY,CVI,PBF,ESTE,ERF,SIGA,NOG,CPG,WTI,CLR,ARCH,LPI,SM,TALO,MNRL,VET,MTDR,CEIX,DK,OVV,
Relative Strength 1 Month - TOP 20:
SIGA,PDD,LPI,LI,RLX,YMM,PLAB,EGY,ESTE,ERF,GTLB,CHPT,BZ,CLR,CVET,NOG,COLD,CRWD,CVI,STAA,
PT PORTFOLIO update
Alex’s FOCUSLIST
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