PT daily Update & Focuslist - 06/21
Good evening folks,
There was some nice move today, but we still have to be very careful and thinking defense fist. Let’s see if we can find some clues of the market direction for tomorrow.
Let’s go!✌️
MARKET REVIEW
We had a nice week open and many individual names show some strength. RTY closed above 1692$ level I talked about yesterday, so we’re officially in the resistance area. We’ll have to keep SL very tight as we have to expect a rollover first before anything else. We’re still in downtrend folks, but we can see some oversold rally or short covering in the next few days as we reclaimed the base breakout level today. Might have trapped some shorts.
RTY did not closed above 5dma, but IWM did though.
I am also looking at that mini-channel / bear flag as a potential trigger to return short.
There was some positive today, but overall I did not see the strength I was expecting at these levels. We’ll wait to see tomorrow for confirmation.
Bullish scenario:
IF:
Close above 1725$ & 1713$ today’s high
Close above 10dma
THEN:
Still keep 20% exposure max. No action yet until we’re below the 21dma
Bearish scenario:
IF:
Rejection of 1725$ OR 1713$
Close below 1692$ & mini-channel UTL
THEN:
Reduce long exposure & open short exposure
MARKET BREADTH
Stocks > 50dma (MMFI) held mid-May 12% low. This is not a big bounce, so we’ll have to see tomorrow if we follow though or undercut.
VIX was able to hold 30$ level today. A close below tomorrow would be very positive.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
SECTORS PERFORMANCE
A bit surprised to see XLE& XOP outperform like that today with CL_F (Crude Oil) being up only 1.5% & Coal flat.
Good day for semis today. keeping notes.
BIOTECHNOLOGIES (IBB) - Showed good strength again today, but found resistance at the 21dma. Rejection or b/o tomorrow?
SOLAR (TAN) - The sector squatted is gains today. Can we take out the 73.82$ level tomorrow or we rollover, that’s the big $$ question.
LEADERS LIST
Overall leaders 40/60 (PRIME Score)
TWI,EGY,PBF,CVI,ESTE,CPG,ERF,NOG,BTU,PTEN,OVV,LNTH,VET,SQM,DQ,WTI,CLR,LPI,CAL,KOS,
Fundamental leaders (FA Score)
MRO,AMR,HDSN,ARCH,SQM,NFE,OXY,LTHM,PLYA,METC,HCC,CPG,PXD,DDL,DINO,MXL,HST,DEN,HP,CVI,
Technical leaders (TA Score)
EGY,BORR,TWI,PBF,CVI,ESTE,CPG,WTI,DQ,PTEN,ERF,NOG,BTU,OVV,LNTH,VET,GTE,SQM,TALO,LPI,
Relative Strength 1 Month (1M-RS)
BKSY,YMM,PDD,LPI,PLAB,EGY,BZ,LI,DELL,ZH,CHPT,CAL,XMTR,SM,ERF,ESTE,FGEN,COTY,TWI,CHS,
Relative Strength 6 Month (6M-RS)
BORR,PBF,VTNR,EGY,BORR,NEX,NINE,AMR,TWI,HDSN,CVI,TWI,CEIX,LNTH,BTU,OXY,SQM,AR,KOS,GLNG,
PT PORTFOLIO update (2 open positions)
Alex’s FOCUSLIST (4 stocks)
PT PORTFOLIO UPDATE
My bullish scenario trigged this morning and covered my TZA position as per my rules. I opened 4 positions as all the Focuslist trigged their entry pivot this morning.
On those 4, I only kept 2, why? (Closed CHS & MPLN intraday)
2 out of 4 squatted below their entry pivot. As per rules, I close the trade EOD.
Had to respect my 20% exposure from my Market Based model. (20% max > 5dma)
New positions:
ENPH - Confirmed his BO50PB today with the recent swing high 191.22$ pivot b/o.
HALO - Confirmed his BORL setup today with the recent swing high 45.2$ pivot b/o.
Trimmed positions:
Closed positions:
TZA - RTY/IWM closed above 5dma
Alex’s FOCUSLIST
PLAB
One of the strongest stock of the past few weeks is finally giving us a proper R/R entry here on the BO level retest. That’s a very nice BORL setup with a picture perfect volume profile on that pullback as well. Notice the selling was on very low volume. That June 16th undercut below the area acted as a shakeout, could be powerful. Alert at most recent swing high.
Alert - 21.12$
CHS
Same setup as shared last night. This one trigged his entry today, but squatted below EOD. I want to keep my alert a bit higher @ 5.76$ which would confirm the continuation of the WBPB setup.
Alert - 5.76$
CAL
Retail name that showed some very impressive strength following ER. I see this little consolidation we’re in as an handle in the bigger base (some could see a cup & handle as well) Recent swing high is the entry pivot.
Alert - 28.74$ & DTL
HRMY
Another bio-tech name setting up nicely. Remember that this sector is leading in the past few days and I’m interested in participating. We are trying a 2nd base breakout after the 1st failed attempt in April. 46.28$ recent swing high would give an early entry. Could use 47.11$ for a big more confirmation.
Alert - 46.28$
REFERENCES
Articles on my system:
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