Good evening folks,
Hope you had a good day. Was not able to get much screen time today, but that might have been a good thing as there was not much to do overall.
Let’s find out if market will rollover or not!
Let’s go!✌️
MARKET REVIEW
We were not able to confirm anything today, but the buying we saw from the lows in pre-market and at the open was a clear change of character for me. This could have been a rollover easily as market retested & rejected 1692$ recent breakout level, but did not and reclaimed it instead. We closed above it.
Tomorrow will be very very important & pivotal imo. We’ll see if we reject again the 1692$ level OR be able to close above it and also above the DTL from most recent price structure.
Bullish scenario:
IF:
Close above 1692$
Close above DTL
THEN:
Still keep 20% exposure max. No action yet until we’re above the 21dma
Bearish scenario:
IF:
Rejection of 1692$ again
Close below UTL
THEN:
Reduce long exposure & open small short exposure (not ideal short setup)
MARKET BREADTH
Stocks > 50dma (MMFI) Gapped down and retested support area low before closing green on the day and almost at supp. area top. I see this as a higher low and also an inverse head & shoulder from June 13/14 low (kinda hard to see) I think this is very positive action here.
VIX closed >4% down on it’s low and more importantly closed below 30$ important level. This is the kind of action we want to see before a potential rally in the market. If we can confirm the close below 30$ & follow through down from here tomorrow, we could have a chance.
BTC/USD I’ll start tracking Bitcoin price action as well here in this letter as I think this is a pretty good risk on/off indication for the overall market as well. I am looking at that DTL & support area as my main trigger point, If we close above that DTL, I think this is very good for the overall market…but below the support area, 19666$ 2018 top and UTL…could mean more pain forward.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
SECTORS PERFORMANCE
Apart Oil, Energy & Metals having a very hard day, overall that was a pretty uneventful day. We continue to see BIOTECH being a leading sector, which now really has my attention.
You discover your leading sectors on days like today…which one are holding best when the market is being tested.
BIOTECHNOLOGIES (IBB) -
last night: Showed good strength again today, but found resistance at the 21dma. Rejection or b/o tomorrow?
We were able to rally hard above the 21dma today instead of rolling over on that retest and gap down. This is really sending a clear signal and it will be interesting to follow that sector in the coming days to see how it react at the 50dma.
SOLAR (TAN) - Did not lead up or down today. We remained in yesterday gap, so I think tomorrow will give us a lot more information. But overall, held good kma’s
LEADERS LIST
Overall leaders 40/60 (PRIME Score)
EGY,BORR,CVI,SIGA,PBF,DQ,HRB,CAL,CPG,ERF,ESTE,CLR,KOS,DK,LPI,CEIX,JKS,LI,NOG,AMPH,
Fundamental leaders (FA Score)
MRO,AMR,HDSN,ARCH,SQM,OXY,LTHM,PLYA,METC,CPG,PXD,DINO,MXL,HST,DEN,HP,CVI,GSM,CF,SHO,
Technical leaders (TA Score)
BORR,EGY,DQ,SIGA,CVI,PBF,HRB,ESTE,CPG,CAL,KOS,LI,ERF,WTI,LPI,DK,CLR,NOG,SD,NINE,
Relative Strength 1 Month (1M-RS)
BKSY,YMM,PDD,PLAB,LI,DQ,LPI,EGY,CAL,DELL,BORR,SIGA,GTLB,CHS,ULTA,COTY,COLD,JWN,FGEN,KNBE,
Relative Strength 6 Month (6M-RS)
BORR,PBF,VTNR,NINE,EGY,NEX,AMR,TWI,CVI,HDSN,CEIX,BTU,LNTH,DK,OXY,SQM,AR,SIGA,DQ,ARCH,
PT PORTFOLIO update (2 open positions)
Alex’s FOCUSLIST (2 stocks)
PT PORTFOLIO UPDATE
No action in the portfolio today.
I adjusted ENPH SL at 183.15 this morning when I saw that we had a small gap down and wanted to protect it with the current price structure and was still within my risk parameter. Notice that support area we had between 183&185. Also, I wanted to let the stock filled that yesterday gap. So SL right below these 2 levels made a lot of sense to protect the trade but not risk too much. So, I was lucky that my SL held on this name because of this change pre-market. Otherwise, I would have been taken out at the open.
That's where I get outside my generic rules sometimes to bend with each situation. It comes with experience and I would suggest sticking with hard rules at the beginning tough. Adjusting it back to today’s low @ 185.52$.
New positions:
Trimmed positions:
Closed positions:
Alex’s FOCUSLIST
PLAB
One of the strongest stock of the past few weeks is finally giving us a proper R/R entry here on the BO level retest. That’s a very nice BORL setup with a picture perfect volume profile on that pullback as well. Notice the selling was on very low volume. That June 16th undercut below the area acted as a shakeout, could be powerful. Alert at most recent swing high.
We held the breakout level today and got ourselves a nice inside day on lower volume. The setup is still very much valid and we can now use yesterday’s high as our new recent swing high pivot entry
Alert - 20.81$
ENPH
If you’re not already in this solar sector leader, we could have a nice BORS setup entry this time with the retest of recent 185$ level breakout. I will be looking to add to my position if we confirm this setup tomorrow.
Alert - 198.73$
REFERENCES
Articles on my system:
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Hi Alex - I have just taken out a subscription earlier today. Can you please tell me when to expect your emails ? Thanks very much
Hi, on the 21st you had HRMY on the focuslist with alert on 46.28. It closed at 47.82 yesterday. As I understand 46.28 is the trigger, thats where I buy. Why is not on your positionlist or focuslist today?