Good evening folks,
Another positive day in the market, this is getting interesting as we begin to see the leading sectors and individual names holding their move from recent breakout. Let’s see if we can find other interesting clues tonight!
ps. Sorry if the letter is late tonight, bed time was not easy with the kids :)
Let’s go!✌️
MARKET REVIEW
We just had very constructive action today. We confirmed last night BULLISH scenario with the close > 1692$ & the DTL, which is super positive.
It is very possible that we are at the beginning of an oversold rally, the big question is where & when will it end. Keep in mind that we are still in a downtrend, so there will be a lot of overhead supply and every major MA’s will act as POTENTIAL resistance.
June 16th acted post-FED acted like a nice shakeout below 1692$ and the fact that we reclaim that level is very telling for me, that was a big step in the right direction today.
Now let’s look at our B/B scenarios for tomorrow:
Bullish scenario:
IF:
Close above 1725$
Close above 10dma
THEN:
I don’t plan to add more exposure before going into the wknd. Might be if we have a 2.5/3% move and close above 21dma.
Bearish scenario:
IF:
Rejection & close below 1692$
Close below UTL
THEN:
Reduce long exposure
MARKET BREADTH
Stocks > 50dma (MMFI) Nice follow through today and we closed above our support area. That’s exactly what we wanted to see to confirm a potential move higher.
VIX Pretty much unchanged…but did not retake 30$ important level, which is super positive here also.
BTC/USD Very good action on #bitcoin as well. We were able to hold 20k support area and closed above yest’d high. Tomorrow, if we can breakout of that DTL, that would be super bullish.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
SECTORS PERFORMANCE
BIOTECHNOLOGIES (IBB) That’s EXACTLY what we wanted to see…and even more. We were able to follow through on that 21dma breakout yesterday and we even closed above the 50dma. That’s a very powerful push and this sector is clearly starting to lead even more.
SOLAR (TAN) Had a decent mid-pack day. We are still within that larger channel DTL from ‘21 peak…but we are getting REALLY CLOSE to try another breakout attempt. Might even be tomorrow. If we breakout of that wedge and we can also b/o of that supply zone above I have in red, then this sector can really push higher fast imo.
LEADERS LIST
Overall leaders 40/60 (PRIME Score)
BORR,SIGA,EGY,DQ,PBF,CAL,CVI,LI,PDD,LNTH,CLR,CHS,AMPH,LPI,YMM,PLAB,ESTE,ENPH,FLNG,VTNR,
Fundamental leaders (FA Score)
MRO,AMR,HDSN,ARCH,SQM,OXY,LTHM,PLYA,METC,CPG,PXD,DDL,DINO,MXL,HST,DEN,HP,CVI,GSM,CF,
Technical leaders (TA Score)
BORR,SIGA,DQ,EGY,NINE,PBF,LI,CVI,CAL,PDD,LNTH,LPI,CLR,YMM,ESTE,WTI,SD,AMPH,VTNR,CHS,
Relative Strength 1 Month (1M-RS)
BKSY,YMM,PDD,CHPT,LI,PLAB,AVYA,CAL,DQ,LPI,SIGA,RCUS,NU,ZH,FTCH,GTLB,CHS,CFLT,NOVA,BORR,
Relative Strength 6 Month (6M-RS)
BORR,VTNR,PBF,NINE,NEX,AMR,LNTH,CVI,EGY,HDSN,SIGA,CEIX,OXY,BTU,DQ,SQM,DK,GLNG,AR,KOS,
PT PORTFOLIO update (2 open positions)
Alex’s FOCUSLIST (5 stocks)
PT PORTFOLIO UPDATE
Market really chopped around 1692$ today so I made some trades around it, but overall I traded TZA,TNA & ENPH today. Let’s see the final adjustments.
New positions:
TNA - Opened the position on the 1692$ pivot retake this afternoon right before the big EOD rally. I covered my TZA position when I saw that the UTL held, then opened my TNA position on the 1692$ breakout.
ENPH - I tried to open the position this morning when we tested back the 191.22$ pivot, but closed it for a good profit before the market sold off around noon. I then re-opened it quickly after taking the TNA trade at the 198$ level in anticipation of a 198.73$ entry pivot from last night letter.
Trimmed positions:
Closed positions:
HALO - Closed the position to respect my progressive exposure limit EOD.
Alex’s FOCUSLIST
SEDG
Another Solar name setting up nicely right after ENPH. We have a BORS setup following last week reclaim of the recent support area. We came back to test the level Tuesday & yest’d right at the 21dma and today almost retook recent swing high of 291.77$
Alert - 291.77$ STOP
VIR
A stock in the biotech leading sector that is about to breakout of his stage 1 base. Today would have been a good entry off the 25.37$ pivot retake, so if we get the chance to enter on this level with a limit order it would be ideal…otherwise an entry off 26.81$ base top will be a decent entry playing the base breakout. Of note, look at these fundamentals…it’s simply crazy. 1.28 millions $ in revenues to 1.23$ BILLIONS in 5 QUARTERS. insane.
Alert - 25.37$ LIMIT & 26.81 STOP
LNTH
Recent leading name that seems to being out of selling interest right in that support area. We are seeing higher lows in that consolidation and a clear DTL working & squeezing the price even more. I will be interested in playing that DTL or 63.61$ recent swing high.
Alert - DTL & 63.61$ STOP
GTLB
Also a stage 1 base/wedge breakout on this software name. I see a WBPB setup as we broke out of the wedge on ER 2w ago, then we came to retest the DTL before trying to reclaim recent swing high today. That 54.5$ recent swing high is the entry pivot.
Alert - 54.5$ STOP
BKSY (WARNING HIGH RISK - advanced traders only)
First, I have to warn everyone, this is the kind of setup that I take very small position to adjust the risk involved. Don’t try to play it big, because the spread is wide, very volatile and the overnight gap risk is high.
That being said, the setup is very hard to see on the daily, so let’s look at the intraday H1 chart (2nd)
I see a WB then gap up, then pulling back to kma's on H1 and broke smaller WB around 14:30 today. It’s then a WBPB setup with a 2.53$ recent swing high entry pivot. AGAIN, HIGH RISK but high potential reward.
Alert - 2.53$ STOP
REFERENCES
Articles on my system:
I really hope that you enjoyed. If you did, please share it so that more folks can be reached and this Newsletter can grow. :)
Hi Alex - first occasion to read your letters as a subscriber and I LOVE it.
One question. You decided to sell HALO in order to stay within your exposure limit. Were there other reasons too to weed out this one? To me, it still has a strong profile for a potential move upwards. I went long about the time you did a few days ago.
Hi, thanks for a great service. I got a few questions.
EOD is that a ticker or is it short for something else?
Why is it written "STOP" after some tickers on the focuslist? I didnt see that before.
VIR, is it correct understood that if it goes down to 25,37 it is good entry?
GTLB, isnt it quite extended from it MA10 to be a good entry? It feels like chasing...
Cheeers