Good evening folks,
Hope you had an amazing weekend, let’s get ready for another week full of opportunities :) !
Let’s go!✌️
MARKET REVIEW
We could not have asked better for Friday action. We confirmed our bullish scenario and closed above recent resistance area (1698-1713$) on above average volume. That area now turns as potential support going forward.
We also closed above recent FED day high of 1755$, which is also, price structure wise, very constructive.
All that being said, we are now sitting right at the 21dma that could act as potential resistance tomorrow. If we breakout of it, I have my next potential level of interest @ 1804$.
This is encouraging what we see right now in the market, as this rally seems to have a broader sectors participation than the previous one that was only Energy related. Also, breadth seems to confirm that move so far as we’ll see later.
One step at a time though, we are still in a downtrend and below the 50dma.
Bullish scenario:
IF:
Close above 21dma
THEN:
Increase long exposure to max 40%
Bearish scenario:
At this point, an orderly 2-3 days PB on light volume would not act as a bearish scenario as I assume we’re on a rally. If we close back below 1713$ on volume though, that would be a red flag and I would switch very defensive again.
IF:
21dma rejection & Close below 1713$
THEN:
Reduce long exposure
MARKET BREADTH
We had 1 month NNH on both the NYSE & NDX Friday. That’s a first step in the right direction. We often see on 1M before 52W, so in the next few days, I’ll want to see NNH on 52w positive as well.
Stocks > 50dma (MMFI) That’s an impressive push off the lows so far. We’ll have to see if this breadth thrust continue. We have still room to go on the upside.
VIX We almost retested the 30$ level Friday before selling off hard by almost 7% down. That’s the kind of action we want to see on the VIX for a continued rally.
BTC/USD We got a rejection off the 10dma this wknd. We’ll have to see more high volume action before analysis anything here. So far, could be a WBPB with a retest of the DTL.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
SECTORS PERFORMANCE
That’s an overall very solid week across the board last week with every sectors up except our past $XLE $XOP $XME & $GDX leaders. That’s the kind of participation we want to see if we want to see this rally hold.
2 next strong sectors showed up last week: Internet & Software. I don’t have any names in these sectors on my Focuslist, but as they’ll come above the 50dma and form proper base, we’ll be able to spot a few leaders if the sectors confirm their strength of course.
BIOTECHNOLOGIES (IBB) This sector is very impressive with a retest of the 50dma area Friday before closing green. That’s the kind of action we want to see off the bottom. We might see some resistance at these levels as we’ve seen on few leaders (HALO HRMY, etc..)
SOLAR (TAN) We are finding some resistance at the LT channel DTL, this is normal… We could see a breakout of that channel this week. I’ll keep an eye on it.
LEADERS LIST
Overall leaders 40/60 (PRIME Score)
DQ,SIGA,HRB,MPLN,LI,PDD,JKS,CALM,CAL,MCK,FLNG,HRMY,HALO,YMM,EXEL,CEIX,SAVE,EVH,EGY,LNTH,
Fundamental leaders (FA Score)
MRO,AMR,HDSN,ARCH,SQM,OXY,LTHM,PLYA,METC,HCC,CPG,PXD,DDL,DINO,MXL,HST,DEN,HP,CVI,GSM,
Technical leaders (TA Score)
DQ,SIGA,LI,PDD,MPLN,HRB,CALM,JKS,YMM,MDVL,EXEL,HRMY,CAL,SAVE,MCK,HALO,EVH,FLNG,CEIX,EGY,
Relative Strength 1 Month (1M-RS)
LI,YMM,DQ,VCYT,QURE,ZH,ABCL,RCUS,PDD,GTLB,SIGA,FGEN,EXEL,CFLT,SAVE,BEAM,DDL,SNOW,S,HRMY,
Relative Strength 6 Month (6M-RS)
NINE,VTNR,BORR,PBF,NEX,AMR,CVI,LNTH,EGY,CEIX,SIGA,HDSN,OXY,DQ,BTU,SQM,GLNG,PTEN,HP,KOS,
PT PORTFOLIO UPDATE
That was a very weird day with a lot of shakeout and big rotations going on with Solar & Biotech being the weakest and Retails & Leisure being super strong. For that reason, I got in a few names that were not able to keep going up and I was stop at a loss. LNTH, GTLB.
New positions:
GTLB - I took the name off the 54.5$ pivot, but got shaken out around noon before jumping back when I saw market finding support & GTLB as well intraday. I got back near my exit price. If we could have closed above the pivot, we would have confirmed the WBPB, but we’ll have to wait at Monday to see if we can do.
Trimmed positions:
Closed positions:
ENPH - I got shaken out of this position, and I make a mistake that I don’t want to repeat as this could cost me a position in a market leader here. I did not respect my SL and closed my 2 positions in this name above every SL. I am so on defensive with market rolling over very fast that I tend to jump my SL lately… will have to fix that.
Alex’s FOCUSLIST
PLAB
That’s the best setup I’ve seen for a while. A perfect BORL setup, but a nice higher low at the support area retest. We then made a HL and if we can take the 20.81$ pivot, then we’ll confirm the BORL setup and a new HH as well. I also see a very nice volume profile in the entire pullback, with down days on low volume compared to big green days when the stock is supported.
Alert - 20.81$
CAL
Retail name building his handle for a couple weeks now and looking like it really want to breakout for this base top area. We’ve been able to stay above the 50dma in this entire consolidation and we also made a HL right below the 21dma. I’ll be looking at 28.74$ pivot for an early entry on this breakout setup.
Alert - 28.74$
CHS
Another retail name setting up out of a tight consolidation near his recent stage 1 base top. We also had a LT wedge breakout recently. A breakout of 5.55 would confirm the WBPB setup.
Alert - 5.55$
LNTH
Recent leading name that seems to being out of selling interest right in that support area. We are seeing higher lows in that consolidation and a clear DTL working & squeezing the price even more. We tried to breakout out of both the DTL & 63.61$ pivot Friday, but were not able to close above it. I will put back my alarm and try a second attempt of that pivot breakout. Setup is still valid.
Alert - 63.61$
REFERENCES
Articles on my system:
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Hello dear
I have a question about choosing the right sector
In the previous days, the energy sector was late, and several sectors preceded it
But today 06-27-2022 moved well, knowing that the performance of the rest of the sectors technically is better as a movement
But there are shares in the energy sector that are technically good
Do you exclude in this case the delay in the sector due to the presence of good stocks, or do you adhere to the sectors that moved?
We hope that you will raise an issue in choosing the appropriate sector and the appropriate industry in the future
thank you my dear