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MARKET ANALYSIS
$QQQ PRICE ACTION (WEEKLY/DAILY)
Weekly in a DOWNTREND BELOW DECLINING 10wma-structure.
Daily in a DOWNTREND BELOW DECLINING 21dma-structure.
We’re getting right into the crunchy & interesting spot in the 21dma-structure, with a higher low made on Friday after a bad red open that got bought aggressively. We also have that potential weekly U&R off the 579$ base area reclaim.
That’s certainly a big change of character, which personally pushed me to test this market to the long side, but a lot remains to be confirmed this week. We remain below both daily & weekly declining structures, and until we reclaim both and act well on backtest, it remains a counter-trend rally.
BREADTH $QQQ McClellan Oscillator/Summation (MCSI/MCO)
- MCSI UPTREND BELOW DECLINING 10dma & OVERSOLD. (-1.61σ)
- MCO NEUTRAL. (+0.25σ)
MCSI uptrend held on Friday, with the 3rd day of breadth expansion. We’re getting right up against the 10dma, which could confirm a potential turn. Key spot.
360° MARKET VIEW $QQQ TLMM Dashboard
The correction is confirmed by broken price structure and deteriorating breadth. The 5-day breadth thrust (+86 GDB) is notable but must be contextualized: it represents a recovery from extreme weakness, not a trend reversal.
For a meaningful uptrend to resume, NASDAQ would need to
(1) reclaim the 50-SMA around 102.03,
(2) see the McClellan Summation Index reclaim its 10-day moving average, and
(3) expand participation back above 40% of stocks above the 50-SMA.
Currently, only 27.7% qualify, which is well below healthy levels. Leadership expansion is stalled (cumulative net highs-lows at 2868 vs 50-day average of 2874.8), confirming that new highs are not driving the market. The 21-day deterioration in all major breadth metrics (participation down 23.8%, ad-net down 48, GDB down 79 points) establishes the corrective trend as the primary regime.
Watch for stabilization at the 50-SMA as a potential inflection point, but confirmation would require breadth expansion, not just price bounce.
MARKET INTERNALS
Credit Spreads (SHY/HYG)
First break of the 21dma-structure - constructive
VIX (Volatility S&P500)
Lower high and potential break of 21dma-structure?
SECTORS ROTATION XLK 0.00%↑ / XLP 0.00%↑
21dma-structure reclaim - constructive for Tech.
#BTC (Bitcoin)
21dma-structure reclaim attempt.
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SECTORS & THEMES
Top 10 Leading THEMES - Relative Strength RANK sorted (W/ Leading & Setting up Stocks)
Top 10 Leading SECTORS - Relative Strength RANK sorted (W/ Leading & Setting up Stocks)
LEADERS STALKLIST
Liquid Leaders Universe (top RS)
SNDK, LITE, SATS, WDC, CIEN, PL, ONDS, TSEM, FIVE, STX, FSLY, VRT, MTZ, DOCN, BE, GEV, TER, NBIS, MRVL, CLS, COHR, MU, GLW, NOK, MKSI, LUNR, ATI, DELL, PWR, LRCX, NVT, INTC, CAT, APLD, JBL, STM, AKAM, MTSI, KLAC, KEYS, HPE, AMAT, ASTS, XPO, AMD, RKLB, TPR, JCI, DAL, NET
Liquid Leaders sorted by 1-Day Return (top daily RS)
Liquid Leaders 21dma-structure Pullback scan (LONG)
SNDK, WDC, VRT, AAOI, GEV, TER, NBIS, COHR, PWR, NVT, CAT, JBL, STM, MTSI, KLAC, KEYS, XPO, NET
Liquid Leaders 21dma-structure Pullback scan (SHORT)
None
