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MARKET ANALYSIS
$QQQ PRICE ACTION (WEEKLY/DAILY)
Weekly in a DOWNTREND BELOW DECLINING 10wma-structure.
Daily in a DOWNTREND BELOW DECLINING 21dma-structure. Reclaimed the 21ema today.
We’re getting right into the crunchy & interesting spot in the 21dma-structure, with a higher low made on Friday and that potential weekly U&R off the 579$ base area reclaim.
We confirmed a potential weekly & daily reversal pivot reclaim, along with a 21ema reclaim today… there is some constructive in that, but it remains to be seen if we can push above that structure and confirm at least a daily-structure reclaim.
BREADTH $QQQ McClellan Oscillator/Summation (MCSI/MCO)
- MCSI UPTREND ABOVE DECLINING 10dma & OVERSOLD. (-1.53σ)
- MCO NEUTRAL. (+0.80σ)
MCSI reclaimed the 10dma today. Could we push and sustain a trend from here?
360° MARKET VIEW $QQQ TLMM Dashboard
The rally is occurring on deteriorating breadth fundamentals.
While advancers are leading and volume is upside-dominant on a 1-day basis, the 5-day and 21-day context reveals the underlying weakness: participation has contracted 11 percentage points over 21 days, and leadership expansion has turned negative.
The price structure (above 21-EMA but below 50-SMA with both moving averages flat) is characteristic of a bounce within a downtrend, not a new uptrend.
Key watch: whether MCSI can reclaim its 10-day moving average; failure to do so would confirm breadth deterioration is persisting. The 'tail_risk_upside' flag suggests some extreme positioning, but this should not be confused with structural health.
Monitor whether participation can expand back above 40% and whether leadership metrics stabilize above their 50-day averages—these would be necessary conditions for the rally to transition into a genuine recovery.
MARKET INTERNALS
Credit Spreads (SHY/HYG)
Follow-through on the break of the 21dma-structure - constructive.
VIX (Volatility S&P500)
Lower high and potential break of 21dma-structure?
SECTORS ROTATION XLK 0.00%↑ / XLP 0.00%↑
21dma-structure reclaim - constructive for Tech.
#BTC (Bitcoin)
Failed to hold the reclaim. Failed & new low…or another shot on the 21dma-structure reclaim?
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SECTORS & THEMES
Top 10 Leading THEMES - Relative Strength RANK sorted (W/ Leading & Setting up Stocks)
Top 10 Leading SECTORS - Relative Strength RANK sorted (W/ Leading & Setting up Stocks)
LEADERS STALKLIST
Liquid Leaders Universe (top RS)
SNDK, LITE, SATS, WDC, CIEN, PL, ONDS, TSEM, FIVE, STX, FSLY, VRT, MTZ, DOCN, BE, GEV, TER, NBIS, MRVL, CLS, COHR, MU, GLW, NOK, MKSI, LUNR, ATI, DELL, PWR, LRCX, NVT, INTC, CAT, APLD, JBL, STM, AKAM, MTSI, KLAC, KEYS, HPE, AMAT, ASTS, XPO, AMD, RKLB, TPR, JCI, DAL, NET
Liquid Leaders sorted by 1-Day Return (top daily RS)
Liquid Leaders 21dma-structure Pullback scan (LONG)
WDC, FIVE, TER, NBIS, GEV, MKSI, ATI, CAT, NVT, JBL, AMAT, KEYS, AKAM, JCI, ON, NET
Liquid Leaders 21dma-structure Pullback scan (SHORT)
MU, LRCX, RKLB, FTAI, ENTG, HL, TKO, CHRW, NRG, B, ANET, AVGO, CCL, CRDO, RCL, EMR, NCLH, ALAB, NXPI, CRWD, PATH, PDD, HPQ, EFX, UBER, ACN, TOST, DKNG, HUBS, PAYC, PAYX, FISV
