Thought of the day
Superperformance Starts Early — Not at Consensus
One of the biggest differences between reactive traders and those who catch real superperformance is where they choose to engage. Most wait for the long-term confirmation — the clean trend, the obvious breakout, the consensus opinion that “this name is strong.” But by the time that happens, the easy part of the move is often gone. You’re not early anymore. You’re chasing strength that others already positioned for.
What’s worked for me is learning to trust short-term trend confirmation. Not blindly, not with oversized risk — but with awareness. When price structure starts to shift, when early volume comes in, when the character of a name changes — that’s where the edge begins. You don’t know if it will morph into a longer-term trend, and that’s the point. You engage with the possibility, not the certainty.
Sometimes it fades. Sometimes it fails. But if you’re managing risk — trimming into strength, raising stops, staying fluid — the downside is limited. And over time, the upside compounds. Because the best trades, the ones that carry, always start the same way: with a subtle shift, a short-term confirmation, and a trader who’s willing to step in before the crowd feels safe.
That’s the game. Not predicting the future — but aligning early with what’s starting to work, and giving it room to become something more.
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MARKET ANALYSIS
Poor follow-through on Friday, as breadth was poor and didn’t confirm the MCSI hook-up follow-through.
Price remains above the 21dma-structure with still a tight near breakeven day just as it retested the base top area. Traction was good in PF, and with price still above structure, I’ll treat this as a normal reaction in a market having difficulties to flip before FOMC.
As long as the price remains above the 21dma-structure and I have traction and healthy action in my PF, I’m not too worried about the still bad breadth.
TLMM DASHBOARD NASDAQ
MARKET INTERNALS
Below daily+weekly structures - good.
Keep trading below the weekly structure, but with a potential higher low as we can’t push below that support area on the daily. Something to look tomorrow on the CPI reaction.
10Y Bond Yields (TNX)
Below daily+weekly structures - good.
/BTC (Bitcoin)
Excellent action last week as we got out 21dma-structure reclaim…now we can look for natural reaction to retest the area and give a higher low and confirmation that now rising 21dma-structure holds on the backtest. Great add opportunity.
SECTORS & THEMES
Top 10 Leading THEMES - Relative Strength RANK sorted (W/ Leading & Setting up Stocks)
Top 10 Leading SECTORS - Relative Strength RANK sorted (W/ Leading & Setting up Stocks)
LEADERS STALKLIST
Liquid Leaders Universe (top RS)
OKLO, IONQ, APP, WDC, CRDO, NBIS, CLS, STX, ALAB, HOOD, MU, WBD, SE, PLTR, RDDT, NET, AVGO, LRCX, MDB, RBLX, VST, U, CCL, GEV, NVDA, UBER, DASH, ORCL, RCL, CVNA, ANET, SNOW, SHOP, AFRM, CEG, COHR, SPOT, ZS, DHI, TSLA, CDNS
Liquid Leaders RS Heat Map
A quick visual of daily Relative Strength vs SPY, helping you spot which stocks are leading or lagging on any given day.
That WL is shared as a community WL that you can access in Tlab.
Liquid Leaders DAILY-structure Pullback scan
HOOD, NVDA, UBER, MP, IBKR, CVNA, VRT, SHOP
Liquid Leaders WEEKLY-structure Pullback scan
HOOD, GEV, UBER, RCL, CVNA, SNOW, AFRM, CEG, SPOT, ZS, CDNS
Episodic Pivot scan (Potential new Leaders)
RGTI, IONQ, WBD
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
Hey guys!
Another solid day last Friday to close the week, and without seeing strong breadth follow-through, my holdings performed well and allowed me to de-risk 3 new positions and continue that trim into strength process.
We are getting into FOMC week, and my game plan remains the same...trim into strength and be patient to at least see what the FOMC reaction will be on Wednesday. We also hooked back down on MCSI, so I'm less inclined to be aggressive and on margin with a now contracting breadth market again.
NER down at -2.2% with a -13% Open Heat.
ADDED:
TRIMMED: 1/3 OKLO (9/11) @ 10.9%, 1/3 RKLB (9/11) @ 11.3%, 1/3 TSLA (9/4) @ 16.3%
OUT:
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