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The Prime Report - 09/25

Evening Market Update & Strategic Insights

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Alex
Sep 26, 2025
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Thought of the day

One of the biggest hurdles for new traders isn’t finding setups; it’s patience.

How are you supposed to hold your winners for multi-week or multi-month moves when every little 2–3% pullback shakes you out? Too often, newer traders dump exposure on normal reactions—even when the trades are still in trend and acting fine—simply because the stress of giving back profits or seeing a red EC day feels unbearable.

The solution? Zoom out. Define in advance what’s normal versus what’s broken. If the trend and structure are intact, a red day is the cost of holding a winner, not a sell signal. Then shift the focus: work on the process, review your setups, and get that damn P&L off your screen.

Patience isn’t passive—it’s discipline.


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MARKET ANALYSIS

Good evening,

  • Price bounced off the rising 21dma-structure.

  • MCSI follow-through on the hook-down today - breadth contracting again.

  • Breadth extensions hooked down follow-through and resulted in very short-term oversold intraday conditions.

  • TLMM Model = Pullback

This market is reaching an exciting spot, with QQQE bouncing right off the 21-day moving average structure, and NQ holding the potential support area we discussed over the last few days. With very short-term breadth hitting oversold levels intraday, that’s pretty much the continuation setup I like to play and engage.

Is this pullback finished? I have no clue, but what I know is that the market is entering a rising 21-day moving average structure. Liquid Leaders are exhibiting some constructive action (for the most part), with higher lows right at their daily structures, and an ‘oops’ reversal-type action today. So that’s my edge, and I need to execute while keeping my risk tight on those new positions.

If the market failed to follow through on that bounce tomorrow, then we might be in for some more weakness and a more extended pullback into next week.

Cautiously optimistic is my mindset here.

Cheers,

TLMM DASHBOARD NASDAQ


MARKET INTERNALS

Credit Spreads (SHY/HYG)

Retest of the daily structure. Good spot for potential reversal. We don’t want to see a reclaim from here.

VIX (Volatility S&P 500)

Tried to breakout above recent swing high, but failed and close weak. Tomorrow is pivotal for either a reversal, or push higher which would indicate potential further weakness and longer pullback.

/BTC (Bitcoin)

Hard rejection of the daily-structure retest. It’s living below the declining 21dma-structure, and lagging the market for a while. Need more time to setup.


SECTORS & THEMES

Top 10 Leading THEMES - Relative Strength RANK sorted (W/ Leading & Setting up Stocks)

Top 10 Leading SECTORS - Relative Strength RANK sorted (W/ Leading & Setting up Stocks)


LEADERS STALKLIST

Liquid Leaders Universe (top RS)

IONQ, NBIS, APP, HOOD, WDC, PLTR, STX, CLS, TSM, TPR, MU, LRCX, WBD, CRDO, GLW, MP, RBLX, B, HPE, INTC, ORCL, AVGO, MDB, AMAT, CEG, GEV, VRT, TSLA, NVDA, ASTS, SHOP, RDDT, ANET, CRWV, TER, HCA, CVNA, VST, DASH, SE, UBER, SNOW, COHR, CRWD, RIVN, CDNS, CCL, JOBY, HIMS, SPOT, DELL, AFRM, RCL, AMD, FSLR, UAL

Liquid Leaders RS Heat Map

A quick visual of daily Relative Strength vs SPY, helping you spot which stocks are leading or lagging on any given day.

That WL is shared as a community WL that you can access in Tlab.

Liquid Leaders DAILY-structure Pullback scan

CLS, RBLX, HPE, IBKR, AVGO, RDDT, ANET, VRT, DASH, HCA, VST, SE, GEV, COHR, ORCL, UBER, HIMS, SNOW, SHOP, SPOT, JOBY

Liquid Leaders WEEKLY-structure Pullback scan

RBLX, IBKR, NVDA, AVGO, RDDT, ANET, VRT, CVNA, DASH, VST, SE, GEV, COHR, UBER, HIMS, CEG, SNOW, SHOP, SPOT, JOBY, CDNS, DELL, ETN, AFRM, AMD

Episodic Pivot scan (Potential new Leaders)


PORTFOLIO UPDATE

Hey guys!

This market is getting to a very, very interesting spot, with QQQE bouncing right off the 21dma-structure, and NQ holding the potential support area we discussed for the last few days. With very short-term breadth hitting oversold levels intraday, that’s pretty much the conitnuation setup I like to play and engage. I was able to get pretty tight entries this morning in a couple of names, along some strength to de-risked at 2R target, so I build some exposure today.

Is this pullback finished? I have no clue...but what I know is the market is getting into rising 21dma-structure, Liquid Leaders having some constructive action (for the most part) with higher lows right at their daily-structures with oops reversal type of action today....So that’s my edge, and I need to execute while keeping my risk tight on those new positions.

Let’s see if we can follow through on that bounce tomorrow and confirm some daily reversal pivot reclaim. (NQ & names like NVDA,ANET, SNOW, AMD, etc)

NER raised at -1.46% with a -9.1% Open Heat and +6.81% Secured Profits on this cycle.

  • NEW: SNOW, AMD, NVDA, ANET

  • ADDED: VRT

  • TRIMMED: SNOW, AMD

  • INTRADAY ATTEMPTS: RKLB (add)

  • OUT: RKLB, GEV

POSITIONS/TRADES LIVE EXPLANATIONS REVIEW (Shared live in Discord):


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