Thought of the day
Respect the Downside — Survival Is a Position
In this game, ugly can get uglier. Never assume it can’t go lower, faster, and harder than you expect.
That’s not fear — that’s respect.
Preserve capital. Protect your peace, because survival is a position.
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MARKET ANALYSIS
Good evening,
Price right in 21dma-structure (potential higher low structure with today’s low)
MCO hook-up follow-through remains negative. MCSI hook-up was attempted today, but failed EOD.
Breadth extensions solid hook-up from oversold condition is still active.
TLMM Model = PULLBACK
The market setup remains, with MCSI attempting to hook up through breadth extension. Powerful bounce off oversold condition, and price is trying to find support in the 21dma-structure with a potential higher low structure being made.
Despite that, we still have that China/USA situation on our hands, so even if I tend to block the noise/news, I can’t ignore that this situation is making the market very nervous, and moving it as well.
So, I’m trying to keep an open mind about that market picture, but manage my risk and exposure differently than I would usually do, without the trade war. Protecting my capital is job #1.
Refer to the Situational Awareness (SA) section for more information about my game plan for tomorrow.
TLMM DASHBOARD NASDAQ
MARKET INTERNALS
Broke down the right side, but still above a rising 21dma-structure.
Retest of multi-month structure, let’s see which side it moves.
/BTC (Bitcoin)
Potential higher low structure being made, but still trade below a declining 21dma-structure.
SECTORS & THEMES
Top 10 Leading THEMES - Relative Strength RANK sorted (W/ Leading & Setting up Stocks)
Top 10 Leading SECTORS - Relative Strength RANK sorted (W/ Leading & Setting up Stocks)
LEADERS STALKLIST
Liquid Leaders Universe (top RS)
OKLO, NBIS, HOOD, IONQ, AVAV, RKLB, ASTS, CIEN, MP, PLTR, CLS, MU, VRT, TSM, WDC, CEG, CRDO, SNOW, AMD, DDOG, NVDA, GEV, AVGO, AMAT, INTC, ZS, CRWD, DELL, SMR, LRCX, TER, B, VST, TEM, STX, SMCI, CRWV, APP, ARM, RBLX, HPE, ANET, ORCL, JOBY, SHOP, ALAB, WBD, TSLA, SE, MDB
Liquid Leaders RS Heat Map
A quick visual of daily Relative Strength vs SPY, helping you spot which stocks are leading or lagging on any given day.
That WL is shared as a community WL that you can access in Tlab.
Liquid Leaders DAILY-structure Pullback scan
HOOD, PLTR, RBLX, JOBY, SNOW, AVGO, APP, HPE, VST, TEM, SHOP, CRWV, ORCL, SE, KLAC, ANET, HIMS, MDB, CVNA, COIN, SPOT
Episodic Pivot scan (Potential new Leaders)
NVTS, INDI, ORLA, PII
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
Hey guys!
That trade war backdrop is back with some news at the end of the day. Things were looking solid with a price 21dma-structure reclaim and MCSI hook-up. That anticipation and near confirmation of today is not yet dead, but some concerning action starts to pile up. Actions like ALAB & CRDO are a bit concerning, NVDA breaking down from the 21dma-structure, and overall hook back down of MCSI below the 10dma. As I said, this setup is not dead, but my job is to ensure that I protect my capital. There was a possibility is would have been behind us, but now we’re back into escalation mode on the news front.
Put yourself in a situation where you can protect your capital first, and also in a position where you are happy either way. If we stabilize, it’s easy to push back to full exposure, but not taking a considerable risk overnight, given the backdrop of the trade war and the potential for a China response overnight.
I am staying very near EC ATH, so it’s an easy spot to push in again if things calm down later this week.
I tried to put back exposure intraday, but given the close, I’m back to my cores, with JOBY de-risked (ish) added to PF for 55% exposure. NER is back down at -0.13%, with a -8.20% Open Heat and +12.56% Secured Profits on this cycle.
Cheers!
NEW:
ADDED:
TRIMMED: JOBY (1/3)
INTRADAY ATTEMPTS: TEM add, SNOW add, CRWV, PLTR,
OUT: HOOD add, CRDO
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FOCUSLIST 10/14
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