Prime Report — Tue. Oct. 6th
📌 Today’s Highlights — Tuesday, October 6
Google signed a 20-year power deal with $CEG to bring 890 megawatts of new nuclear capacity onto the PJM grid through upgrades at six existing plants, with Constellation committing more than $4.3B to the build-out. The stock rose as much as 15% and pulled independent power producers like $VST up with it.
The trade deficit widened to $105.6B in August against $102.1B expected, the largest since March 2025, as imports hit a record. Capital goods led, with semiconductor imports posting a record monthly jump on the AI buildout. Goldman cut its Q3 GDP tracking to 3.1%.
$MRVL rose about 8% after its investor day lifted the 2028 revenue target to $20B, from $18B in August. Chips carried the tape as yields and crude eased after a G7 reserve release, and the S&P 500 closed at a record for the first time since August.
🗓️ Tomorrow — Wednesday, October 7
A data-light Wednesday built around the September minutes, with a 10-year reopening an hour before them.
⛽ [10:30 AM ET — EIA Petroleum Inventories]
The first weekly read since the G7 committed 100M barrels of reserves over four months, front-loaded with diesel. Focus: distillate stocks after US diesel topped $6 a gallon in September, and crude with Brent near $98.
💵 [1:00 PM ET — $39B 10-Year Note Reopening]
September’s reopening cleared 4.834% on strong demand; the 10-year now sits near 5.28%, close to its highest since 2002. Focus: the tail and indirect takedown at these levels.
📕 [2:00 PM ET — FOMC Minutes, September 15–16 Meeting]
The Committee hiked unanimously to 3.75–4.00%, with the projections penciling in one more move this year. October hike odds fell to about 23% after September’s 29K payroll print. Focus: how many participants backed an October follow-up, and the language on energy pass-through.
📊 [After Close — $LEVI Levi Strauss Q3]
Consensus: EPS ~$0.36, revenue ~$1.62B. Call 5:00 PM ET. Focus: tariff costs in apparel margins and the full-year guide.
Also: $STZ reported after today’s close; the call is at 8:00 AM ET.
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LAB REPORT - 10/6
Growth Cycle
The risk gate is the 10w structure: an EMA10 of the growth/value ratio's weekly highs and lows. A close above the band turns risk-on, a close below turns risk-off, and inside the band it keeps the last side, which cuts the whipsaws. The cycle usually turns counter-clockwise: Risk-off → Probe → Ramp Up → Trim or Hold → Reload → back down.
Leaders Map
50 of the strongest names in Liquid Leaders Scan by RS Rank · 50 above the 10-week SMA, 7 of those stretched more than +4 ATR · 9 in the buy area · 41 above the band · prices are the Oct 6 session
Setups
4 in the buy area, 4 on weakness · 15 names clear every check · 9 in Leading themes, 4 untagged · ranked by RS Rank, one per theme, two per group · prices are the Oct 6 session
In the buy area
TEAM — Workflow & Automation
Buy 180.98–194.74. Stop 180.98 (−6.7%), target 219.98 (+13.4%). RS Rank 58, earnings in 23 days.
RNG — CRM & Sales Software
Buy 73.30–78.29. Stop 73.30 (−5.2%), target 85.27 (+10.3%). RS Rank 125, earnings in 27 days.
MU — Memory
Buy 1,012.27–1,077.43. Stop 1,012.27 (−3.2%), target 1,112.13 (+6.4%). RS Rank 150, earnings in 78 days.
TWLO — DevOps & CI/CD
Buy 264.08–287.34. Stop 264.08 (−5.8%), target 312.53 (+11.5%). RS Rank 231, earnings in 23 days.
On weakness — wait for the level rather than chasing
NET — CDN & Edge Computing
Wait for 330.16–354.35. Stop 330.16 (−4.6%), target 377.64 (+9.1%). RS Rank 152, earnings in 23 days.
ZETA — Marketing Automation & CDP
Wait for 30.07–32.29. Stop 30.07 (−4.7%), target 34.48 (+9.3%). RS Rank 234, earnings in 28 days.
PLTR — AI Platform
Wait for 180.66–189.83. Stop 180.66 (−3.2%), target 198.33 (+6.3%). RS Rank 282, earnings in 27 days.
AXTI — Analog Semiconductors
Wait for 72.17–82.27. Stop 72.17 (−8.2%), target 91.61 (+16.5%). RS Rank 347, earnings in 23 days.
Educational content, not investment advice.
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
1. Price Action (QQQ/NQ)
NQ remains firmly in an uptrend above a rising 21dma structure and has now pushed cleanly above the recent range.
The main change tonight is that price is getting more extended short-term, so I’m less interested in chasing here and more interested in seeing whether this breakout can hold while the 21dma continues to rise underneath.
For now, the structure is still healthy:
breakout above the recent range
higher lows intact
rising 21dma structure underneath
no meaningful loss of trend
So the read stays simple: trend is intact, but short-term extension is building. I’d rather let existing exposure work and wait for the next clean stress-test / pullback than press aggressively up here.
2. Breadth Regime (QQQE / Nasdaq MCSI / MCO)
QQQE: Above a rising 21dma-structure.
MCSI: Expanding regime - 10dma crossover holds
MCO: Uptrend and back being overbought
3. Internals
Credit Spreads: Above a rising 21dma-structure - Potential exhaustion gap?
VIX: Below a declining 21dma-structure - RISK-ON
Growth: Above a rising 21dma-structure - RISK-ON
Bond Yields: Potential false breakout?
Crude Oil: Big breakdown now below a declining 21dma-structure - GOOD!
Bitcoin: Above a rising 21dma-structure - looks soooooo good.
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
Hey guys,
A bit more mixed today. The bigger trend is still constructive, but we did see some divergence / weakness underneath, while QQQ is starting to get a little extended on the daily. Nothing broken, but not exactly the spot where I want to blindly press everything either.
I added to MU this morning on the potential higher low into its rising 21dma structure. Semis remain a leading group on the larger timeframe, and MU is one of the stronger names within it. I also took another planned 2R trim in PANW.
Later I tried INTC on the weakness / 21ema tap setup, but didn’t like the close and cut it. SNOW also hit my time stop, so I moved on.
I finish around 148% gross exposure, with -1.98% NER, +1.27% NEP and -0.70% NEΔ. Open profits remain around +15.5% versus -11.8% Open Heat, so there’s still a decent cushion.
Today’s action:
ADDED: MU → 23% @ $1,051.33
TRIMMED: 1/3 PANW @ $431.14 (+15.19%, 2R)
OUT: INTC -1.1%, SNOW -1.1%
Still constructive overall, but with QQQ getting a bit extended and some weakness showing up underneath, I’m happy to reduce a bit of exposure/NER and stay selective from here. 👊
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Themes Lab — 10/6 🧪
Top-down map of 180+ themes: where the strength lives, where it’s cracking, where rotation is building.
LEADING THEMES (RS)
• CRO + AI — RS 93.22 (#1)
• Life Sciences Tools — RS 89.11 (#2)
• Oil & Gas Refining — RS 84.46 (#3)
• Genomics — RS 84.36 (#4)
• RF Semiconductors — RS 81.48 (#5)
Healthcare tools own the top of the board: Genomics +31% 1M / +50% 3M, Refining +45% 3M. Biggest 8-week RS jump is Foundry (+37), with Connectivity Semis (+35) and Memory (+33) right behind. No theme is tagged Fading or Breaking Down right now, so leadership is intact and just rotating.
TOP SETUPS @ 21dma-structure area
$MU 100 — Memory [Leading]
$SNOW 98 — Database & Data Platform [Leading]
$TEAM 97 — Workflow & Automation [Leading]
$ARM 97 — AI Infrastructure [Leading]
$IOT 84 — AI Platform [Emerging]
$CRWV 60 — GPU Cloud & HPC [Leading] (trophy carry)
THEMES SETTING UP (full breadth)
Watch the themes where the whole leadership board is coiling at the 21dma-structure area together — that’s where the cleanest follow-through tends to come from:
• Workflow & Automation — $TEAM, $NOW all setting up (2 of 5 leaders)
TAKEAWAY
Healthcare tools and semis lead, nothing cracking at the top. Rotation is building in Design & Engineering Software and Semi Equipment. $IOT is the rotation setup to watch.
LEADERS STALKLIST
Liquid Leaders Universe (top RS)
AMD, LITE, SNDK, FTNT, CRWD, P, RBRK, DELL, HPE, MXL, OKTA, PANW, NTAP, DDOG, TEAM, ANET, AVT, S, SMTC, RNG, MRVL, FORM, MU, NET, GTLB, TER, FROG, ENTG, VIAV, SN, TWLO, W, ZETA, BOX, SNPS, MTSI, SNX, CAKE, PLTR, META, TENB, ALAB, GME, AXTI, SHOP, TSEM, SIG, VEEV, CGNX, SNOW, U, NTSK, ESTC, NBIS, LSCC, ANF, DOCU, SWKS, INTC, COHR, IOT, FSLY, SYNA, CDNS, SAIL, HPQ, SKHY, CIEN, CRDO, CLS, VSAT, DBX, MTN, AAOI, DOCN, AEHR, GM, ASO, CROX, KMX, MHK, BBY, LTH, LRCX, ARM, STX, VSXY, MDB, M, CART, FLEX, ETSY, RCL, SMCI, CDW, AMAT, GAP, STM, CRM, Q
Liquid Leaders 21dma-structure Pullback scan (DAILY)
TEAM, RNG, W, CAKE, SIG, ANF, DOCU, ARM, GDDY, NOW
Liquid Leaders 10wma-structure Pullback scan (WEEKLY)
SNDK, DELL, TEAM, RNG, MU, TER, FROG, SN, TWLO, W, ZETA, BOX, SNX, CAKE, PLTR, TENB, AXTI, TSEM, SIG, CGNX, SNOW, U, ESTC, NBIS, ANF, DOCU, SWKS, INTC, COHR, IOT, FSLY, SAIL, HPQ, SKHY, CRDO, AAOI, DOCN, ASO, LRCX, ARM, FLEX, SMCI, CRM, Q, MCHP, TTMI, QCOM, GDDY, IT, NOW, GLW, GWRE
REFERENCES
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An extended QQQ tells me little by itself. The real test is whether memory, software and connectivity leaders hold their rising 21dma on the next pullback. Multiple failures alongside wider credit spreads would make me cut exposure faster than an index break.