Everybody wants a pullback, until it shows up.
In theory it feels like opportunity. In real time it feels like something is wrong. That’s where most decisions shift from process to emotion. A big part of it comes from being too focused on the short term, especially the P&L. As soon as things turn red, the attention moves away from structure and execution, and toward how it feels.
But the P&L is just the byproduct, not the signal.
A pullback doesn’t change the plan, it tests it. The focus should stay on the bigger picture and on executing the process correctly, not reacting to every fluctuation.
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MARKET ANALYSIS
$QQQ PRICE ACTION
Weekly in a UPTREND ABOVE RISING 10wma-structure.
Daily in a UPTREND ABOVE RISING 21dma-structure. 2.73x ATR-21 ema, so ST extension remains.
There is no stopping this market… QQQ re-confirms the trend today with a daily reversal off yesterday’s high, and Futures are +1% following the mega-caps earnings. That will probably bring that market into a new ATH tomorrow… and extend it extremely again.
One day dips & stress-test is all we get since the lows were in, this is a lockout rally.
BREADTH $QQQ McClellan Oscillator/Summation (MCSI/MCO)
- MCSI SIDEWAYS ABOVE RISING 10dma & NEUTRAL. (+0.31σ… lot of runway)
- MCO NEUTRAL. (-0.25σ)
With the open weakness, we saw an oversold reading on MCO, which acted as a great buy signal on that pullback. Breadth has been contracting since April 17th, digesting the move from the lows, and today was the day we tapped some capitulation right before FOMC & MCs earnings.
Let’s see if MCSI can flip back up to resume its uptrend above a still-rising 10dma.
360° MARKET VIEW $QQQ TLMM Dashboard
MARKET INTERNALS
Credit Spreads (SHY/HYG)
RETEST & REJECTION of the declining 21dma-structure - risk-on.
VIX (Volatility S&P500)
INSIDE DAY below the declining 21dma-structure - risk-on.
#BTC (Bitcoin)
BACKTEST of the rising 21dma-structure BACKTEST - risk-on.
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SECTORS & THEMES
Top 10 Leading THEMES - Relative Strength RANK sorted (W/ Leading & Setting up Stocks)
Top 10 Leading SECTORS - Relative Strength RANK sorted (W/ Leading & Setting up Stocks)
LEADERS STALKLIST
Liquid Leaders Universe (top RS)
SNDK, BE, WDC, LITE, STX, MXL, MU, INTC, SATS, ONDS, AAOI, TTMI, PL, CIEN, AEHR, AMD, STM, VIAV, ON, APLD, NVTS, FLEX, NOK, NBIS, CLS, AMKR, VRT, TSEM, NXPI, LRCX, CRDO, MCHP, AVGO, MRVL, NVT, COHR, GEV, ANET, TXN, DOCN, ENTG, AMAT, DELL, FIVE, SMTC, GLW, HPE, ALAB, XPO, ROKU
Liquid Leaders sorted by 1-Day Return (top daily RS)
Liquid Leaders Episodic Pivot (EP) sorted by Gap (Potential new Leader/Catalyst)
MXL, STX
Liquid Leaders 21dma-structure Pullback scan (LONG)
CIEN, AEHR, APLD, CLS, VRT, SMTC, BA, DHI
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
Alright, FOMC & Megas earnings day! I hope you had fun.
Gameplan remains the same...playing this pullback as an opportunity to get myself into good exposure for a potential re-confirmation of the uptrend. Again, it’s not about prediction, but when I see an historical uptrend from the lows, I am a buyer of the first initial pullback by targeting the leading names & groups at their 21dma-structure. It can fail, but with price still above a rising 21dma-structure on QQQ, breadth going sideways and MCO hitting oversold this morning, internals VIX/CS rejected at declining 21dma-structure, I want to keep a bird-view on this trend and engage in this opportunity.
Mega-caps earnings are coming soft post-market, so this could change that picture, and in which case I played the odds in front of me, and I will manage risk tomorrow. That’s the game.
NER at 2.5%, and will allow myself to push up to 3% tomorrow if the setups are there. OH at 8%, and Still have a good +14.38% cushion on this market cycle, allowing me to see this pullback as an opportunity and not as a threat.
Let’s see if we can get stabilization after today’s initial momentum, but I like both Credit Spreads and VIX action below their declining 21dma-structure, along with ST breadth that really cooled off in the last few days. Let’s see! day by day.
Cheers HAGN!
Today’s action:
NEW: QBTS. LUNR, ORCL
ADDED:
TRIMMED:
OUT: TER, ONDS
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS, GAMEPLAN, and TOP IDEAS 04/29
THE MARKET PICTURE (5-pillars checklist)
QQQ Price Action (risk-on)
QQQ above a rising 21dma-structure. ST extended at 2.73x ATR from the 21-ema.
Another weak open, but QQQ closed decent in reaction to FOMC.
Likely gap up bringing extension even higher.
Breadth regime (risk-on)
MCSI now mostly FLAT after today. Current look might suggest only digestion.
MCO went oversold this morning and snapped back. Could this be the fuel to resume the trend higher? MCO topped 17th, then digestion started since then.
Internals (risk-on)
Credit Spreads & VIX both rejected at the declining 21dma-structure today.
BTC backtesting the rising 21dma-structure - need to hold.
Liquid Leaders action (risk-on)
Liquid Leaders acting strong, no red flags to report with still groups rotation keeping the LLs basket strong.
SOOOO many setups at the 21dma-structure.
Quantum, Photonics, and Space themes are on watch this week for potential rotation. (scan is filled with those)
IGV Software names are really setting up as a group. An ideal scenario would be to see semis-to-software rotation to keep that trend strong.
Portfolio & NER feedback
Good traction with BE, giving me the patience needed to weather that pullback.
Mixed action in the rest of the PF today.
THE GAMEPLAN
Gameplan remains the same for me, look to engage in this pullback, and with the amount of LLs setting up at their rising 21dma-structure, I like more and more the look of this market with a continuation higher.
CS/VIX rejection at their 21dma-structure, and MCO oversold tap after 2 weeks of digestion.
First, I want to de-risk and trim my new exposure, then if NER gets down, I’ll look to continue engaging as we’re pretty early on a continuation if it happens.
TOP IDEAS FOCUS LIST
AEHR, APLD, CIEN, CLS, DOW, IBKR, KEYS, LUNR, ORCL, QBTS, SMTC, VRT
REFERENCES
PT Wiki Is Now Live!!
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What’s Inside:
Alex's Swing Trading System – full framework, entries, sizing, market timing
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what settings do you use for the mcsi and mco
IGV is almost 20% below the 200 day MA. How is that a setup?