Deep down, do you expect every trade you put on to work?
Most people do, even if they don’t say it. That expectation quietly shapes decisions, it makes normal pullbacks feel wrong, and small drawdowns feel like something broke. But trading doesn’t work that way. Good trades can fail, and average ones can work. The edge is not in being right every time, it’s in executing the same process over and over without needing immediate validation.
Once you let go of that expectation, you stop reacting to each trade, and start managing a series of them.
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MARKET ANALYSIS
$QQQ PRICE ACTION
Daily in a UPTREND ABOVE RISING 21dma-structure. 3.02x ATR-21 ema, so ST extension remains.
Good delayed reaction to FOMC & mega-caps earnings today, with QQQ pushing 0.93% higher into a new ATH.
Lockout trend remains.
BREADTH $QQQ McClellan Oscillator/Summation (MCSI/MCO)
- MCSI HOOKED BACK UP ABOVE RISING 10dma & NEUTRAL. (+0.35σ… lot of runway)
- MCO NEUTRAL. (+0.33σ)
There we had it, breadth coming back in the market today, which was sufficient to hook MCSI back up. We remain in a breadth-expanding regime above the rising 10dma.
360° MARKET VIEW $QQQ TLMM Dashboard
MARKET INTERNALS
Credit Spreads (SHY/HYG)
DOWNSIDE REVERSAL FOLLOWING REJECTION of the declining 21dma-structure - risk-on.
VIX (Volatility S&P500)
DOWNSIDE REVERSAL FOLLOWING REJECTION of the declining 21dma-structure - risk-on.
#BTC (Bitcoin)
BACKTEST of the rising 21dma-structure - risk-on but needs to hold.
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SECTORS & THEMES
Top 10 Leading THEMES - Relative Strength RANK sorted (W/ Leading & Setting up Stocks)
Top 10 Leading SECTORS - Relative Strength RANK sorted (W/ Leading & Setting up Stocks)
LEADERS STALKLIST
Liquid Leaders Universe (top RS)
SNDK, BE, WDC, LITE, STX, MXL, ONDS, MU, SATS, AAOI, CIEN, INTC, AEHR, PL, AMD, STM, CAT, TTMI, NVTS, ON, CLS, TSEM, VIAV, APLD, VRT, NOK, MKSI, FLEX, MRVL, LRCX, AVGO, NVT, MCHP, NXPI, TXN, FORM, NBIS, AMKR, JBL, COHR, ANET, TER, AMAT, GEV, GLW, FIVE, CRDO, SMTC, DOCN, ROKU
Liquid Leaders sorted by 1-Day Return (top daily RS)
Liquid Leaders Episodic Pivot (EP) sorted by Gap (Potential new Leader/Catalyst)
FTAI, VIAV, TTMI
Liquid Leaders 21dma-structure Pullback scan (LONG)
PL, LRCX, FORM, GLW, FIVE, ASML, CAVA, NVDA, CHRW, APH, ODFL, CVNA, CRWD, PANW, DHI
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
What a day & week. Market reconfirmed the trend today, with a daily reversal on QQQE, and a hook-up above an already rising 10dma on MCSI. Breadth expending again, while Internals show a clean risk-on picture with Credit Spreads making a full downside reversal after rejecting the declining 21dma-structure. In short, everything says risk-on, from price, breadth, internals, LLs, and my PF feedback.
I pressed a bit more today at the open after having de-risked QBTS, bringing my exposure just shy of 150% as per my gameplan if the market would re-confirm the trend.
For now, it’s a game of patience. The goal is to position along the pullback, accept the volatility that comes with it, and stay anchored to the structure. Once the market starts to confirm and momentum slowly comes back in, like today, the job shifts. It’s no longer about adding, it’s about managing. That means limiting new exposure, trimming into extensions and at predefined R multiples, and giving the market time to set up again. Let it digest, let the next leg build, then repeat the process. You’ll probably see me a bit less active, and that’s intentional. Staying disciplined in this phase matters more than doing more.
NER is still at 2.6%, but with a good 1.5% cushion on it. Open Heat back above 10%, while closed delta on the current market cycle is still growing at 7%.
I’ll share my April performance update tomorrow, but the highlight is that I’m back green YTD, with my 2nd-best month since 2020/21. We played that one well so far... but still so much work (and patience) to do to NOT fuck this up. It was a pleasure trading alongside you all this month 🙏👊
Cheers HAGN!
Today’s action:
NEW: IBKR
ADDED:
TRIMMED: QBTS (1/3), CAT (1/5)
OUT:
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS, GAMEPLAN, and TOP IDEAS 04/30
THE MARKET PICTURE (5-pillars checklist)
QQQ Price Action (risk-on)
QQQ above a rising 21dma-structure. ST extended at 3.02x ATR from the 21-ema.
New ATH
Lockout trend above the rising structure… keep it simple.
Breadth regime (risk-on)
MCSI back to an uptrend above rising 10dma, and not overbought. Breadth expansion regime.
MCO hook-up after oversold reading yesterday.
Internals (risk-on)
Credit Spreads & VIX both rejected at the declining 21dma-structure, and confirmed a downside reversal.
BTC backtesting the rising 21dma-structure - need to hold.
Liquid Leaders action (risk-on)
Liquid Leaders acting strong, no red flags to report with still groups rotation keeping the LLs basket strong.
Themes we identified setting up at the 21dma-structure pushed hard today.
Portfolio & NER feedback
Good traction in PF.
THE GAMEPLAN
Just like that, back to less is more, back to panda mode. 🐼
The goal is to position along the pullback, accept the volatility that comes with it, and stay anchored to the structure. Once the market starts to confirm and momentum slowly comes back in, like today, the job shifts. It’s no longer about adding; it’s about managing.
That means limiting new exposure, trimming into extensions and at predefined R multiples, and giving the market time to set up again. Let it digest, let the next leg build, then repeat the process.
You’ll probably see me a bit less active from here, and that’s intentional. Staying disciplined in this phase matters more than doing more.
TOP IDEAS FOCUS LIST
Not personally planning to execute those names as pointed out in my gameplan, but I want to keep a fresh FL in case I need to rotate a lagging or failing trade.
Names setting up best: CAVA, CRWD, FIVE, FORM, GLW, LRCX, LUNR, ORCL, PL
REFERENCES
PT Wiki Is Now Live!!
After weeks of building, writing, editing, and organizing... I’ve finally wrapped up the Free PrimeTrading Wiki. This is the central place where I’ve documented my entire swing trading system — the mindset, process, setups, tools, and how I actually execute.
If you’ve ever wanted a full breakdown of how I approach the market day in and day out, this is it.
What’s Inside:
Alex's Swing Trading System – full framework, entries, sizing, market timing
TradersLab Scans – the exact filters I use to build my Focus List
Trading Psychology Reflections – key mindset shifts and lessons
Glossary of Terms – clear definitions so we’re all speaking the same language
Education Articles – deep dives on Risk Management and Market Structure
Education Sessions – recorded walkthroughs: system, TLMM, process building
Tools – my Trading Journal + TradingView scripts (21dma structure, ATR extensions)
The only piece still missing is the Discord Onboarding section — it’ll be added in the next few days. This project is for you — to help you understand the why, not just the what. Let me know what you think.
https://traderslab.gitbook.io/primetrading
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