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I’ll be riding the Gran Fondo Québec on August 15th, taking on the 122km route.
Gran Fondo Québec is a cycling event on open roads through the Quebec City region, bringing together riders of all levels. It’s not about racing, it’s about the challenge, the experience, and pushing yourself over a long distance.
This year, I’ll be doing it with a purpose.
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https://journeeleucan.crowdchange.ca/112786/page/408050
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MARKET ANALYSIS
$QQQ PRICE ACTION
$QQQ PRICE ACTION
Trend is up and above a rising 21dma-structure, closing 711.23 (+2.34%) on a clean press-higher bar that made new highs and closed at the top of its range. No hesitation, no upper wick worth talking about — buyers in control all session.
Extension keeps building: ATR Dist. 21ema at 4.84x and ATR Dist. 10wma at 8.45x. Both expanded again today. That’s deeply extended on the weekly read and firmly in lockout territory on the daily — information, not a sell signal, but the rubber band is stretched.
The 635.39 shelf that capped this range from November through January broke cleanly in April and has flipped to first real support — it’s now ~75 points underneath. Closer references are the 664.51 / 655.33 stair-steps from the late-April consolidation, and the 21ema itself is sitting near 654.60. Nothing overhead until price discovery takes over.
What I’d flag: the tape continues to refuse digestion. Every attempt at a rest bar gets bought the next session. That’s lockout behavior — characteristic of strong trends, but also where chasing gets punished.
How I’d think about it going into Monday:
Trend posture is unambiguous — long-biased, no question
Extension is the only real friction here; 4.84x off the 21ema doesn’t reward fresh entries
Setups should be hunted on pullbacks into the rising 21dma-structure, not up here
Manage what’s already working — trail stops, don’t add into extension
Let new ideas come to you; the market will offer a rest bar eventually
Trend up, above rising 21dma-structure, deeply extended. That’s the whole read.
BREADTH $QQQ McClellan Oscillator/Summation (MCSI/MCO)
BREADTH $QQQ McClellan Oscillator/Summation (MCSI/MCO)
MCSI UPTREND above RISING 10dma & NEUTRAL. (+0.51σ)
MCO NEUTRAL. (+0.14σ)
Breadth expansion regime intact. MCSI has been grinding higher off the early-April washout, riding the rising 10dma cleanly — that’s the structural read that matters. Z-score sitting at +0.51σ means we’re in the upper half of normal, nowhere near a +2σ trim signal.
MCO at +0.14σ is genuinely neutral — no overbought stretch, no oversold opportunity. The April spike to +2σ already burned off, and we’ve been chopping around the zero line since without rolling over. That’s healthy — breadth holding up while price extends is what you want to see.
What I’d flag: MCSI rising + MCO neutral = the cleanest version of a breadth expansion regime. No divergence yet between breadth and price highs. The +2σ MCO event in April was the buying climax / momentum thrust — typical for that to come early in a leg and then breadth quiets down while price keeps working. That’s where we are now.
How I’d think about it:
Above rising 10dma on MCSI = stay constructive on the tape
MCO neutral = no edge from oscillator extremes right now, no trim/add signal
Watch for MCO push toward +2σ on the next price thrust (potential trim opportunity)
Watch for MCO drop toward -2σ on any pullback (potential add opportunity)
The signal to actually worry: MCSI rolls below declining 10dma while price still making highs = breadth divergence, defensive posture
Simple read: breadth trending up, no extremes, no warnings. Backdrop supports the price action.
360° MARKET VIEW $QQQ TLMM Dashboard
MARKET INTERNALS
CS (SHY/HYG) DOWNTREND below DECLINING 21dma-structure. Risk-on. (1.03)
VIX DOWNTREND below DECLINING 21dma-structure. Risk-on. (17.19)
BTC UPTREND above RISING 21dma-structure. Risk-on. (~81.4k)
All three internals aligned risk-on. Clean backdrop for the price action.
Credit Spreads (SHY/HYG) sitting at 1.03, pinned below a declining 21dma-structure since the early-April flush resolved. Spreads tightening = high-yield credit is bid, no stress in the system. This is the one that matters most — when credit cracks, equities follow. No crack here.
VIX at 17.19, also below declining 21dma-structure. Volatility compressing, not expanding. The March spike to 35 already burned off and we’ve been grinding lower since. Vol regime supports trend continuation, not vol-of-vol.
BTC at ~81.4k, the only one in an uptrend above rising 21dma-structure — which is exactly what you want from BTC in a risk-on tape. BTC tends to lead risk appetite at the margin; it’s confirming the same regime, just from the offense side instead of the defense side.
What I’d flag: the three are telling the same story from different angles — defensives (CS, VIX) compressing, offense (BTC) trending. That’s the cleanest version of a risk-on backdrop. The warning would be one of these breaking ranks: CS or VIX reclaiming their 21dma-structure, or BTC losing its rising 21dma. Right now, none of that.
How I’d think about it:
All three confirm risk-on, no need to fight the tape
Watch CS first — credit cracks before equities do
VIX reclaim of rising 21dma = first defensive shift signal
BTC losing rising 21dma = risk appetite waning at the margin
Until one of those flips, internals support staying long-biased
Backdrop is clean. Internals and price are saying the same thing.
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SECTORS & THEMES
Top 10 Leading THEMES - Relative Strength RANK sorted (W/ Leading & Setting up Stocks)
Top 10 Leading SECTORS - Relative Strength RANK sorted (W/ Leading & Setting up Stocks)
Themes Lab — Beta
Top-down theme tracker mapping ~180 themes by RS. Shows where strength lives before drilling into names.
Leading Themes (RS)
Power Semiconductors — RS 95
Memory — RS 93
Analog Semiconductors — RS 87
Semiconductor Equipment — RS 81
Oil & Gas Refining — RS 86
Semis sweep the top of the board — Power, Memory, Analog, and Equipment all leading with +36% monthly parent-theme momentum.
Top Setups @ 21dma-structure area
$VICR 99 — Power Semiconductors
$AOSL 93 — Power Semiconductors
$CLS 96 — Electronics Mfg Services
$ONTO 98 — Semiconductor Equipment
$AEIS 90 — Semiconductor Equipment
$CRWV 94 — GPU Cloud & HPC
$BE 99 — Hydrogen
$TT 90 — HVAC
$WSO 82 — HVAC
$ALB 92 — Battery Materials
$SQM 91 — Battery Materials
$LITE 99 — Photonic ICs
$AAOI 98 — Photonic ICs
$COHR 94 — Photonic ICs
$RMBS 74 — Memory (trophy carry, only setup tagged)
$ATOM 82 — Analog Semiconductors (trophy carry, only setup tagged)
$INGM 68 — Electronics Distribution (trophy carry, only setup tagged)
$ALAB 74 — Connectivity Semiconductors (trophy carry, only setup tagged)
Takeaway Risk-on tape with Semiconductors running the show — Power, Memory, Analog, Equipment, and Photonics all firing together at the 21dma-structure area. Secondary strength building in Hydrogen ($BE), Battery Materials, and HVAC — watch for rotation broadening beyond semis if it holds.
By: @TradersLab_
LEADERS STALKLIST
Liquid Leaders Universe (top RS)
AXTI, SNDK, WDC, BE, MU, STX, LITE, SATS, MXL, INTC, FLEX, AMD, CIEN, PL, AEHR, APLD, DOCN, ONDS, NVTS, STM, LRCX, RKLB, MTSI, FORM, NVT, DDOG, AMKR, CAT, NBIS, AMAT, TWLO, TTMI, DELL, MKSI, TSEM, ON, VRT, FTNT, AKAM, VIAV, SMTC, GLW, ASML, COHR, TXN, PWR, LSCC, GFS, MRVL, TER
Liquid Leaders sorted by 1-Day Return (top daily RS)
Liquid Leaders Episodic Pivot (EP) sorted by Gap (Potential new Leader/Catalyst)
RKLB, AKAM
Liquid Leaders 21dma-structure Pullback scan (LONG)
BE, LITE, PL, COHR, TER, ENTG, ATI, FDX, ABNB, ALAB, RMBS, LYV, CVNA, BLD, APP, ADSK, ADBE
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
Hey guys!
Powerful day last Friday, with good action in many top groups, while some others are still trying to build their right side at the rising 21dma-structure. Price/Breadth/Internals/LLs are still giving a full risk-on picture, and I’m really trying to focus on my PF action and Liquid Leaders still setting up abundantly at the 21dma-structure area despite that crazy extension in QQQ/SMH. We’ll see what gives, but as long as action remains healthy, and want to stay engaged and add on shakeout days like I did last week.
From here early this week, my goal remains to trim into early strength and lower my exposure.
NER is still at -1.8% % after Friday’s exposure adjustments. Open Heat at -12.8%, with a growing Open Delta of +25.03% on this market cycle. Risk is known and managed.
Cheers HAGN!
Today’s action:
NEW: CRWV
ADDED: GEV
TRIMMED: ONTO (1/3)
OUT: DAL, CLS
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS, GAMEPLAN, and TOP IDEAS 05/10
THE MARKET PICTURE (5-pillars checklist)
1. $QQQ Price Action (risk-on) a. Trend up, above rising 21dma-structure, closed 711.23 (+2.34%) on a press-higher bar with no upper wick — buyers in control b. Extension is the story: ATR Dist. 21ema 4.84x, 10wma 8.45x — deeply extended, lockout behavior, tape refusing digestion
2. Breadth Regime (risk-on) a. MCSI uptrend above rising 10dma at +0.51σ — structural breadth read intact, upper half of normal, nowhere near a trim signal b. MCO neutral at +0.14σ — no oscillator extreme either way, breadth quietly holding while price extends (the healthy version)
3. Internals (risk-on) a. Credit Spreads (SHY/HYG) 1.03 and VIX 17.19 both downtrending below declining 21dma-structure — no stress, vol compressing b. BTC ~81.4k uptrending above rising 21dma-structure — offense side confirming the same regime
4. Liquid Leaders Action (risk-on) a. Semis sweeping the board — Power, Memory, Analog, Equipment, Photonics all firing at 21dma-structure; secondary strength in Hydrogen, Battery Materials, HVAC b. No red flags in the rotation — setups clustering exactly where I want them (pullbacks into rising structure), not extended chases
5. Portfolio & NER Feedback (risk-on, defense-leaning) a. NER -1.8%, Open Heat -12.8%, Open Delta +25.03% — risk known, cycle paying, I already started trimming Friday (ONTO 1/3, out DAL/CLS) — tape is rewarding the book and I’m correctly reducing into strength
THE GAMEPLAN
I’m in a 5/5 risk-on tape with $QQQ deeply extended — textbook lockout trend behavior. Price is 4.84x off the 21ema, weekly even more stretched. That’s not a sell signal to me, it’s information: the rubber band is loaded, and any rest bar gets bought until it doesn’t. Keeping it simple here.
My make-or-break pillar is Internals — specifically Credit Spreads. CS reclaiming its declining 21dma-structure is the first real tell that the offense regime is softening. Until then, breadth and internals tell me to stay long-biased.
Posture: I’m trimming into strength, managing what’s working, not chasing up here. New ideas come on pullbacks into rising 21dma-structure — that’s where the leader board is already clustering. Giveback days are part of riding a trend; I’m not confusing a rest bar with a regime change. Defense kicks in for me if CS or VIX reclaim structure, or if MCSI rolls below a declining 10dma while price still pushes highs.
TOP IDEAS FOCUS LIST
I focus on 21dma-structure buys because extension this deep doesn’t reward fresh entries — my edge is letting leaders come back to rising structure, not chasing the print.
Early-week tell: if we open soft, $CLS re-entry and 21dma backtests on $VICR / $BE are the spots.
$VICR 99 — Power Semiconductors
$LITE 99 — Photonic ICs
$BE 99 — Hydrogen
$ONTO 98 — Semiconductor Equipment
$AAOI 98 — Photonic ICs
$CLS 96 — Electronics Mfg Services
$CRWV 94 — GPU Cloud & HPC
REFERENCES
PT Wiki Is Now Live!!
After weeks of building, writing, editing, and organizing... I’ve finally wrapped up the Free PrimeTrading Wiki. This is the central place where I’ve documented my entire swing trading system — the mindset, process, setups, tools, and how I actually execute.
If you’ve ever wanted a full breakdown of how I approach the market day in and day out, this is it.
What’s Inside:
Alex's Swing Trading System – full framework, entries, sizing, market timing
TradersLab Scans – the exact filters I use to build my Focus List
Trading Psychology Reflections – key mindset shifts and lessons
Glossary of Terms – clear definitions so we’re all speaking the same language
Education Articles – deep dives on Risk Management and Market Structure
Education Sessions – recorded walkthroughs: system, TLMM, process building
Tools – my Trading Journal + TradingView scripts (21dma structure, ATR extensions)
The only piece still missing is the Discord Onboarding section — it’ll be added in the next few days. This project is for you — to help you understand the why, not just the what. Let me know what you think.
https://traderslab.gitbook.io/primetrading
I really hope that you enjoyed it. If you did, please share it & hit the LIKE button so that more folks can be reached and this Newsletter can grow. :)