Don’t Let a Lockout Trend Build You Bad Habits
Right now is not a normal market. $QQQ is 4.84x ATR off its 21ema. Leaders are 3-4x extended. Someone buys a stock at 3+xATR off the 21ema today, and it pays. Someone chases an extended breakout, and it pays. Someone adds to a name already up 30% on the month, and it pays.
That’s worth sitting with, because it’s where bad habits get built.
This tape is rewarding behavior that in a normal market doesn’t work most of the time. You’re not learning in the average environment — you’re learning in a lockout trend, the rare regime where the rubber band keeps stretching and rest bars get bought before they develop. It’s helpful if you were already positioned. It’s a problem if it starts shaping how you enter trades going forward.
The risk isn’t today. The risk is what you carry into the next tape — the normal one, which comes back eventually.
If this market convinces you that 3xATR entries are fine, that chasing works, that pullbacks into rising 21dma-structure are optional — you’re building habits that won’t hold up when the regime shifts. Credit Spreads will reclaim structure at some point. VIX will expand. MCSI will roll. When it does, traders who drifted from their process during the easy phase are the ones who give back the cycle’s gains.
So the job here isn’t just to make money. It’s to make money without changing the playbook. Before each trade, a simple check: would I take this in a normal market? If not, size it like the exception or pass. Trim into strength. Let setups come on pullbacks into rising 21dma-structure. Don’t add into extension.
When experienced traders trim and talk about extension as information — that’s not bearish posturing. It’s protecting the playbook. They’ve seen this cycle.
Discipline isn’t really tested when it’s hard to make money. It’s tested when it’s easy. This is the easy phase. The process you keep in place now is what carries you through the harder one later.
The market pays for discipline across cycles. Worth deciding which trader you want to be in two years, and trading like that trader today.
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MARKET ANALYSIS
$QQQ PRICE ACTION
market remains impressive. finally got that give-back today, but same story as the last few weeks: sellers pushed it, buyers stepped right back in and closed it near the highs. 707.24, down less than 1%, high 710, low 696. that’s not a sellers’ bar to me, that’s a dip i’m buying.
extension is still real — 3.59 ATRs off the 21ema, almost 8 off the 10wma. so i’m not chasing green bars up here, i want my adds on these intraday flushes instead.
underneath, 675.97 is the shelf i’m watching first. below that, 664 and the 655 zone are the stair-steps. the rising 21dma-structure is down at 662 — if we ever actually get a real pullback that deep, that’s a gift, not a problem.
is today day one of a larger pullback or another small shakeout? honestly don’t know. doesn’t really change what i’m doing. trend is up, every dip since the april low has been bought, and i’m leaning into that until the 21dma-structure actually breaks.
buying weakness, not chasing strength.
BREADTH $QQQ McClellan Oscillator/Summation (MCSI/MCO)
BREADTH $QQQ McClellan Oscillator / Summation (MCSI/MCO)
MCSI FLAT on 10dma & NEUTRAL. (z: 0.42, 10dma: 0.42)
MCO NEUTRAL, rolling. (z: -0.63)
Regime in transition — expansion stalling at the highs.
MCSI: Sitting right on the 10dma at 0.42, both lines flattening after the April-to-early-May climb. The push off the April low has lost its slope and the 10dma is curling — not contraction yet, but the expansion regime isn’t intact either.
MCO: At -0.63 after fading from the early-May thrust near +2σ. Softening but not washed out — fewer names participating each session, which lines up with the MCSI flattening.
What I’d flag: Fewer and fewer participating into this stall. MCO worked off the thrust and is leaning oversold-ish — the question is whether that’s enough to hook breadth back up tomorrow, or whether MCSI rolls under a declining 10dma and confirms contraction.
How I’d think about it:
MCSI flat on 10dma — regime in limbo
MCO neutral, fading from thrust, not yet at -2σ
Add signal: MCO tagging -2σ with MCSI holding the 10dma
Trim signal: MCO bouncing weakly while MCSI rolls under declining 10dma
Divergence watch: price holding up while MCSI breaks lower = breadth deterioration confirmed
Breadth losing participation at the highs. Either MCO hooks and pulls MCSI back up, or this rolls into contraction. tbs.
360° MARKET VIEW $QQQ TLMM Dashboard
MARKET INTERNALS — Credit Spreads / VIX / Bitcoin
MARKET INTERNALS $SPY Credit Spreads / VIX / Bitcoin
CS (SHY/HYG) DOWNTREND below DECLINING 21dma-structure. Risk-on. (1.03)
VIX DOWNTREND below DECLINING 21dma-structure. Risk-on. (17.99)
BTC UPTREND above RISING 21dma-structure. Risk-on. (80,913)
All three aligned risk-on — and they just passed a stress-test.
Credit Spreads at 1.03, pinned below declining structure. April widening got retested and rejected — credit got a chance to crack and refused. This is the one that matters most.
VIX at 17.99, same retest-and-reject behavior below declining structure. Vol popped, came right back in, compressing in the high-teens.
Bitcoin at 80,913, above rising structure and pressing the highs. Offense-side confirmation.
What I’d flag: the retest and rejection on CS and VIX is the read. Flip signal is simple — either one reclaiming declining 21dma-structure is when the tone changes.
How I’d think about it:
Regime: risk-on, stress-tested
CS pinned below structure, no cracks
VIX mirrors the credit read
BTC trending = risk appetite intact
Flip: CS or VIX reclaim of declining structure
Three panels stress-tested, three held. Backdrop is clean.
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SECTORS & THEMES
Top 10 Leading THEMES - Relative Strength RANK sorted (W/ Leading & Setting up Stocks)
Top 10 Leading SECTORS - Relative Strength RANK sorted (W/ Leading & Setting up Stocks)
Themes Lab — Beta
Top-down map of ~180+ market themes ranked by relative strength. Shows where the leadership lives and which names are setting up inside those themes — so you fish where the fish are.
LEADING THEMES (RS)
01 Power Semiconductors
02 Memory
03 Semiconductor Equipment
04 Analog Semiconductors
05 Foundry
Semis sweeping the top 5 — Power and Memory anchoring at +33% monthly. Risk-on tape.
TOP SETUPS @ 21dma-structure area
$ASML 99 — Semiconductor Equipment
$ARM 98 — Analog Semiconductors
$AEHR 97 — Semiconductor Equipment
$ONTO 96 — Semiconductor Equipment
$FORM 95 — Semiconductor Equipment
$LSCC 95 — Analog Semiconductors
$AMKR 94 — Analog Semiconductors
$ALB 92 — Battery Materials
$ALGM 91 — Power Semiconductors
$AVGO 88 — AI Infrastructure (trophy carry)
$JBL 99 — Electronics Mfg Services (trophy carry)
$LITE 100 — Photonic ICs (trophy carry)
$CRWV 87 — GPU Cloud & HPC (trophy carry)
TAKEAWAY Leadership is concentrated and clean — Semiconductor Equipment is the deepest setup bench on the board, with Power Semis, Memory, and Analog confirming the broader chip cycle bid. Watch for rotation extension into AI Infrastructure ($AVGO) and Photonic ICs ($LITE) as second-derivative plays. Oil & Gas themes still ranking but excluded — trend rolling.
By: @TradersLab_
LEADERS STALKLIST
Liquid Leaders Universe (top RS)
AXTI, SNDK, BE, WDC, LITE, VSAT, STX, MU, CIEN, MRAM, MXL, PL, HUT, INTC, AEHR, APLD, DOCN, AAOI, AMD, FLEX, LASR, VICR, RKLB, WULF, TSEM, CAT, WOLF, LGN, TTMI, STM, VIAV, VRT, COHR, MTSI, LRCX, DDOG, NVT, PWR, BTSG, SMTC, CNC, SSRM, CVE, LBRT, FCEL, MKSI, IREN, TXN, AKAM, VSH
Liquid Leaders sorted by 1-Day Return (top daily RS)
Liquid Leaders Episodic Pivot (EP) sorted by Gap (Potential new Leader/Catalyst)
None
Liquid Leaders 21dma-structure Pullback scan (LONG)
SATS, PL, AEHR, WULF, LBRT, AMKR, CENX, ALB, TER, FTI, WFRD, SLB, ASML, AVGO, VLO, KLAC, GEV, ATI, AA, CHRD, HXL, ENTG, ALGM, BKR, ARM, VOYA, DOW, VIST, PSX, ALAB, FANG, MGA, RMBS, FTAI, PII, DAL, LYB, MP, TFX, XYZ, SWK, FLY, MAS, PKG, ENPH, CARR, LOGI, APP, SWKS, AFRM
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
Hey guys! There you go, we had our red day...is it the start of a larger pullback/consolidation, or a couple days affair once again. I have no idea, but I liked enough what I saw in the liquid leaders today to add back some epxosure and adding to some names of my PF. LLs were supported at 21dma-structures, base structures, recent swing high pivots, shakeouts below structures...are with strong close in daily range.
We’ll see tomorrow if that was the right move, but as I said multiples times in the last few weeks, my focus is first on my positions and the liquid leaders, top themes and groups. And they acted well and strong today, so that’s the information I was seeking to get today. Pair that with good rejections of declining 21dma-structure on Credit Spreads and VIX...and we have the potential for a continuation higher, however crazy it might sound.
NER is up 0.78%, with a 12.1% Open Heat and a +16.50% Closed Delta on this market cycle. Risk is known and managed.
Cheers HAGN!
Today’s action:
NEW:
ADDED: GEV, ONTO, ARM
TRIMMED:
OUT:
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS, GAMEPLAN, and TOP IDEAS 05/12
THE MARKET PICTURE (5-pillars checklist)
$QQQ Price Action (risk-on) a. Trend up, closed 707.24 near the highs after a give-back day — that’s a dip i’m buying bar, not a sellers’ bar b. Extension is real — 3.59 ATRs off 21ema, almost 8 off 10wma. Not chasing green here, want adds on intraday flushes
Breadth Regime (neutral) a. MCSI flat on 10dma at 0.42 — expansion stalling, regime in limbo b. MCO neutral at -0.63, rolling off the early-May thrust — fewer names participating each session
Internals (risk-on) a. Credit Spreads (1.03) and VIX (17.99) both downtrending below declining 21dma-structure — retest-and-reject behavior held b. BTC at 80,913, uptrend above rising 21dma-structure — offense-side confirmation
Liquid Leaders Action (risk-on) a. Semis sweeping the top 5 themes, Power and Memory anchoring at +33% monthly. Setups clustering at 21dma-structure — $ASML, $ARM, $AEHR, $ONTO, $FORM b. Trophy carries ($AVGO, $JBL, $LITE, $CRWV) still trending — no red flags in leadership
Portfolio & NER Feedback (risk-on) a. NER +0.78%, Open Heat 12.1%, Closed Delta +16.50% on the cycle. LLs supported at 21dma-structures with strong closes — added GEV, ONTO, ARM into the flush. Tape paid for engagement today
THE GAMEPLAN
Red day, and that’s OK — part of the game to ride a trend. What I saw in the liquid leaders is what mattered: supported at 21dma-structures, base structures, shakeouts holding, strong closes in daily range. That’s the information I was looking for, and I got it. Paired with the rejection of declining 21dma-structure on Credit Spreads and VIX, the backdrop stays clean. Opportunity until proven otherwise.
The make-or-break pillar is breadth. MCSI flat on the 10dma and MCO rolling off the thrust — regime in limbo. Either MCO hooks and pulls MCSI back up, or MCSI breaks under a declining 10dma and confirms contraction. That’s what tells me whether this give-back was day one of something larger or just another shakeout that gets bought.
For now i’m leaning into what’s working — adding to leaders on flushes into rising 21dma-structure, not chasing green bars up here with $QQQ 3.59 ATRs extended. Defense kicks in if internals crack (CS or VIX reclaiming declining structure) or if MCSI rolls under a falling 10dma. Until then, buying weakness, not chasing strength.
TOP IDEAS FOCUS LIST
Focus is on names at or near rising 21dma-structure — that’s where the risk/reward lives in an extended tape.
$LITE 100 — Communication Equipment (pulled in toward rising structure today, -5.77%)
$BE 98 — Electrical Equipment (extended, watching for a flush into structure)
$AVGO 97 — Semiconductors (sitting just above rising 21dma-structure after the -2.13% give-back)
$ALAB 97 — Semiconductors (pulled into rising structure on today’s red bar)
$AEHR 89 — Semiconductors (extended, want it to come in)
$ONTO 91 — Semiconductors (back at rising 21dma-structure after -3.28% — clean test)
$SEI 90 — Oil & Gas Equipment (pulled into rising structure, -1.41%)
$ALGM 93 — Semiconductors (sharp -5.21% flush, testing rising 21dma-structure)
REFERENCES
PT Wiki Is Now Live!!
After weeks of building, writing, editing, and organizing... I’ve finally wrapped up the Free PrimeTrading Wiki. This is the central place where I’ve documented my entire swing trading system — the mindset, process, setups, tools, and how I actually execute.
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