One of the simplest mindset shifts that quietly changed my trading was learning to stop building scenarios around what the market should do from here. The moment you commit to a narrative, you start filtering price action through it instead of reading what’s actually in front of you. Just follow the tape. The structure is there to tell you when you’re wrong, or when things are getting tired and about to shift, and that’s really the whole job.
No prediction required — just alignment with what’s unfolding.
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MARKET ANALYSIS
$QQQ PRICE ACTION
New ATH today, and the way we got here matters — pulled back, retested the prior swing high pivot, and pressed right through it. Close at 719.79, +0.71%, bar holding the highs. Clean continuation off a level that had every reason to stall it.
Extension is what it is up here. ATR Dist. 21 EMA at 4.03 and ATR Dist. 10 WMA at 9.25 — stretched, and the gap/sharp pullback risk stays elevated the higher we press. 21dma-structure sits down at 671 with the EMA low, so there’s real air between price and the line. Doesn’t break the trend, just means you’re not chasing strength here, you’re letting it come in.
Levels underneath are stair-stepped clean: 714.59 / 710.18 right below as the first shelf, then 664.51 and 655.33 as the next tier, the 635.39 breakout shelf that flipped is the structural one, and 615.68 / 579.26 deeper if anything really unwinds. 21dma-structure threads through that 664–671 zone — that’s where the trend gets a real test, not before.
Things to watch:
714.59 / 710.18 — first shelf, where a normal digestion bar should hold
Gap risk elevated at 4.03 ATRs over the 21dma-structure — size accordingly
664–671 is the real trend test if we ever see it; 21dma-structure lives there
635.39 the flipped shelf — losing that changes the character entirely
Don’t be the one paying up into 9+ ATRs over the 10 WMA
trend up, ATH confirmed, more as we continue higher — just don’t chase the candle.
BREADTH $QQQ McClellan Oscillator / Summation (MCSI/MCO)
MCSI DOWNTREND below DECLINING 10dma & NEUTRAL. (z: 0.27, 10dma: 0.42)
MCO NEUTRAL. (z: -0.62)
Breadth contraction regime, but short-term oscillator hooking.
MCSI: Rolled under the 10dma and the 10dma is now declining — clean confirmation of the breadth downtrend that’s been building since early May. Z-score still neutral, so no washout edge yet, just deterioration.
MCO: Tagged near-oversold intraday and closed with a hook back up from -0.62. Not a signal on its own, but the kind of print that either kicks off a relief bounce or gets sold straight through tomorrow.
What I’d flag: The MCO hook is the tell for tomorrow. If buyers build on it, MCSI flattens and the contraction stalls. If it fails and MCO pushes back toward -2σ, that’s selling accelerating into a real oversold — and where the better add zone actually sets up.
How I’d think about it:
MCSI below declining 10dma — defensive posture, breadth deteriorating
MCO hooked from near-oversold — short-term relief setup, unconfirmed
Trim watch: MCO push back to +1σ into a declining MCSI = sell the bounce
Add watch: MCO to -2σ with MCSI still falling = washout, momentum thrust low setup
Regime flip: MCSI back above a flattening 10dma would neutralize the contraction call
Hook is there, follow-through isn’t. Tomorrow tells you which side gets paid.
360° MARKET VIEW $QQQ TLMM Dashboard
MARKET INTERNALS Credit Spreads / VIX / Bitcoin
CS (SHY/HYG) DOWNTREND below DECLINING 21dma-structure. Risk-on. (1.03)
VIX DOWNTREND below DECLINING 21dma-structure. Risk-on. (17.26)
BTC UPTREND above RISING 21dma-structure. Risk-on. (81,106)
All three aligned risk-on, with one small wrinkle to watch.
Credit Spreads: 1.03, sitting below a declining 21dma. Green today is a minor divergence inside an otherwise clean downtrend — this is the one that matters most, so the line in the sand is staying suppressed below that declining structure.
VIX: 17.26 and printed a new local low — exactly the behavior you want, vol getting sold into the trend.
Bitcoin: 81,106, pressing toward new highs above a rising 21dma. Offense side is confirming risk appetite cleanly.
What I’d flag: CS ticked green today — noise inside a downtrend, not a signal. It flips only if SHY/HYG spikes back above the declining 21dma and holds; until then, treat today as a wiggle.
How I’d think about it:
Regime: risk-on, all three aligned.
CS: today’s green is a divergence inside a downtrend — watch, don’t react.
VIX: new low confirms vol compression.
BTC: new-high attempt = offense working.
Flip signal: SHY/HYG reclaims and holds above declining 21dma.
Backdrop is clean. One yellow wiggle on credit, but internals and price are still saying the same thing.
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SECTORS & THEMES
Top 10 Leading THEMES - Relative Strength RANK sorted (W/ Leading & Setting up Stocks)
Top 10 Leading SECTORS - Relative Strength RANK sorted (W/ Leading & Setting up Stocks)
Themes Lab — Beta
Top-down view of ~180+ themes ranked by RS, surfacing where the real strength is concentrated and which names are setting up inside the leading groups.
Leading Themes (RS)
Power Semiconductors — RS 94
Memory — RS 93
Foundry — RS 92
Analog Semiconductors — RS 87
AI Infrastructure — RS 90
Semis sweeping the top of the tape — Power Semis and Memory both above RS 93 with broad constituent strength.
Top Setups @ 21dma-structure area
$LITE 100 — Photonic ICs
$GEV 99 — Grid Infrastructure
$LSCC 95 — Analog Semiconductors
$VIAV 94 — Optical Components
$AMKR 93 — Analog Semiconductors
$ALGM 91 — Power Semiconductors
$CF 91 — Specialty Chemicals
$LYB 90 — Specialty Chemicals
Trophy carries (sole trophy in theme):
$NET 77 — CDN & Edge Computing
$CRWV 75 — GPU Cloud & HPC
$CRDO 74 — Connectivity Semiconductors
$ATI 86 — Advanced Materials
$USAR 86 — Rare Earth Supply Chain
Takeaway Risk-on, semis running the show with Power Semis, Memory, Foundry, Analog all stacked at the top. Setups broadening into Grid Infrastructure, Photonics/Optical, and Specialty Chemicals — watch for rotation if semis cool.
By: @TradersLab_
Liquid Leaders Daily Health Check — Tape Read
Overall read: Risk-on, but the basket is heavily skewed to extended — the bid has already moved well above structure on most names.
Above rising 21dma, in good structure (still tradeable)
Optical/comm equipment: $CIEN and $LITE are the cleanest names in the basket — both stair-stepping orderly above rising 21dmas, controlled pullbacks getting bought. $PL also above a rising band, choppier and wider-ranging but still constructive.
Storage/hardware: $WDC riding a rising 21dma in clean orderly fashion — same character as $LITE/$CIEN, just in storage.
Industrials: $BE sideways-consolidating above a rising 21dma after a strong leg — digesting rather than extending. Constructive.
Recently expanded, now extended (manage, don’t chase)
The dominant bucket today.
Verticals this week: $TSEM and $HUT both gapped sharply higher and are sitting multiple ATRs above structure. $FLEX gapped from ~$95 to ~$140 in early May, now consolidating at the highs — extended but holding. $APLD broke out of a long base and pushed vertical — stretched well above the band.
Earlier expansions still extended: $SNDK vertical move, just had a -4.46% pull-in from extension. $AXTI straight up off the April low, structure well below price. $MU sharp vertical, -3.44% pull-in today. $STX extended but consolidating sideways — band still well below price. $VSAT new highs +5.27%, extended above the band. $SATS and $AEHR both extended above rising bands, $AEHR digesting sideways for several weeks.
Bullish in character across the bucket, but entries are poor here.
Lagging / mixed
Empty. Nothing in this basket is chopping around a flat 21dma or showing thin participation.
Failures
None. No names broke structure that should have held, no names got sold at a rising 21dma. The absence is the read — the bid is showing up where it should across the entire basket.
What this tells you about the tape
The bucket distribution itself is the headline: ~12 names extended vs. ~5 in clean structure. That’s a tape where the move has already happened in the leaders. Plenty of strength, but the easy entry locations have largely paid out.
Bid location is shifting late-cycle. Most of the basket is being bid 3+ ATRs above structure rather than at structure. Lockout-trend behavior is the dominant pattern, not pullbacks-into-the-band.
Zero failures and an empty lagging bucket. Regime is intact — every name that should have held its 21dma did. No early cracks.
Where defined-risk entries still exist: $CIEN, $LITE, $WDC, $PL, $BE. That’s optical/comm, storage, and one industrial — narrow, but real.
Stance: managing-mode dominates here. The tape supports staying engaged with what’s working, but new adds need to be selective — only the at-structure cohort offers defined risk. Chasing the verticals is where this tape punishes you.
Watch the consolidations in the extended names — $SNDK, $MU, $AEHR all pulled in or chopped today. If those start basing sideways and let their 21dmas catch up, the basket resets and the next leg has location. If they roll instead, the extension bucket starts paying out and dispersion narrows further.
LEADERS STALKLIST
Liquid Leaders Universe (top RS)
AXTI, SNDK, BE, SATS, VSAT, LITE, WDC, MU, STX, CIEN, PL, AEHR, HUT, TSEM, APLD, FLEX, MXL, NVTS, WULF, DOCN, STM, INTC, TTMI, AMD, MRAM, WOLF, LRCX, CAT, RKLB, NVT, VRT, COHR, LASR, PWR, VICR, BTSG, NBIS, FCEL, SMTC, ON, GLW, VIAV, TXN, CSCO, AMAT, MTSI, IREN, VSH, MKSI, FTNT, NOK, DDOG, CNC, PENG, ASML, RIOT, HPE, PANW, SANM, TWLO, LUNR, MRVL, AKAM, ORA, CRWD, AMKR, KLAC, SSRM, ST, NVDA, CORZ, GFS, BWA, SYNA, HUM, Q, TECK, OSCR, LSCC, STLD, AVGO, FPS, AUR, NXPI, JBL, AAON, DELL, ARM, GEV, ESI, IRDM, EBAY, NXT, INOD, CGNX, OUST, HWM, LGN, SOLS, ATI
Liquid Leaders sorted by 1-Day Return (top daily RS)
Liquid Leaders Episodic Pivot (EP) sorted by Gap (Potential new Leader/Catalyst)
None
Liquid Leaders 21dma-structure Pullback scan (LONG)
LITE, TEVA, LSCC, GEV, TIGO, CLS, CRDO, HXL, PII, AA, BIIB, ALGM, NEM, RMBS, ETN, WST, FTAI, TFX, USAR, BA, XYZ, QRVO, RVTY, WAT, CRWV, SWKS, APP, LOGI, U, MOH, COIN, TEAM, DKNG, BX, DUOL
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
Hey! Hope you had a great day, guys.
Mixed action today, with some leading groups digesting, while other areas are really strong. That’s what a bit-later-stage trend act is, but the action remains healthy and constructive in the market and, more importantly, in the LLs and my holdings. It might be because of OPEX, too; we’ll know tomorrow.
I was a bit more active today, as it’s a bit harder to position, and considering the market extension, I want to manage my risk better and be more active to rotate lagging stuff into setting up stuff. that’s what I did today.
NER is up at 1.5% (-1.55% Delta), with a 15.47% Open Heat and a +16.3% Closed Delta on this market cycle. Risk is known and managed.
Cheers HAGN!
Today’s action:
NEW: USAR, ALGM
ADDED: GEV
TRIMMED: ARM (add)
OUT: ONTO (add)
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS, GAMEPLAN, and TOP IDEAS [05/14]
THE MARKET PICTURE (5-pillars checklist)
1. $QQQ Price Action — risk-on (extended)
New ATH at 719.79, clean continuation through the prior swing high pivot — trend up, ATH confirmed
ATR Dist. 21ema at 4.03 and 10wma at 9.25 — stretched, real air down to 21dma-structure at 671
2. Breadth Regime — risk-off (divergence)
MCSI below declining 10dma (z: 0.27) — breadth contraction regime, deterioration since early May
MCO hooked from near-oversold (-0.62) — relief setup, unconfirmed. Tomorrow tells me which side gets paid
3. Internals — risk-on (with one wrinkle)
Credit Spreads 1.03 below declining 21dma-structure, VIX 17.26 at a new local low — both risk-on. CS ticked green today, noise inside a downtrend, not a signal yet
BTC 81,106 above rising 21dma-structure — offense side confirming cleanly
4. Liquid Leaders Action — risk-on
Semis sweeping the top — Power Semis, Memory, Foundry, Analog all stacked at the top of the RS ranks
Setups broadening into Grid Infrastructure, Photonics/Optical, Specialty Chemicals — rotation working, not a one-group tape
5. Portfolio & NER Feedback — risk-on (managed)
NER 1.5%, Open Heat 15.47%, Open Delta -1.55% — mixed action with leaders digesting, but constructive underneath. Rotated laggards into setting-up names (USAR, ALGM new; GEV added)
THE GAMEPLAN
Extended but still being paid — and I’m taking it day by day. Price action and internals are still risk-on, semis are running the show, and setups keep showing up at rising 21dma-structure in the leading groups. That’s the offense side. The wrinkle is breadth — MCSI under a declining 10dma is the make-or-break pillar from here. If MCO follows through tomorrow and MCSI flattens, the contraction call stalls and I stay engaged. If MCO fails and pushes back toward -2σ, that’s selling accelerating and the better add zone actually sets up lower.
My gut and the pillars are aligned: extended tape, leaders still setting up, but I don’t want to be caught off guard with too much NER overnight. So I’m controlling NER as my primary lever — trimming into strength on extended names, rotating laggards into 21dma-structure setups (which is exactly what today’s action was), and letting new ideas come to me on pullbacks. Not chasing 9+ ATRs over the 10wma.
Defense kicks in if MCSI keeps declining and Credit Spreads reclaim and hold above the declining 21dma — that’s the regime flip. Until then, today’s CS green is a wiggle inside a downtrend, not a signal. Giveback at some point is normal, part of the game to ride a trend — I just want to give back from a managed exposure, not a max one.
TOP IDEAS FOCUS LIST
Extension up here means I’m only interested in names sitting at or pulling back into rising 21dma-structure — that’s where the trend pays, not where I chase it.
$GEV (97) — Grid Infrastructure
$LSCC (92) — Semiconductors
$LITE (99) — Communication Equipment
$CRDO (94) — Communication Equipment
$ALGM (90) — Semiconductors
$USAR (82) — Rare Earth / Industrial Materials
REFERENCES
PT Wiki Is Now Live!!
After weeks of building, writing, editing, and organizing... I’ve finally wrapped up the Free PrimeTrading Wiki. This is the central place where I’ve documented my entire swing trading system — the mindset, process, setups, tools, and how I actually execute.
If you’ve ever wanted a full breakdown of how I approach the market day in and day out, this is it.
What’s Inside:
Alex's Swing Trading System – full framework, entries, sizing, market timing
TradersLab Scans – the exact filters I use to build my Focus List
Trading Psychology Reflections – key mindset shifts and lessons
Glossary of Terms – clear definitions so we’re all speaking the same language
Education Articles – deep dives on Risk Management and Market Structure
Education Sessions – recorded walkthroughs: system, TLMM, process building
Tools – my Trading Journal + TradingView scripts (21dma structure, ATR extensions)
The only piece still missing is the Discord Onboarding section — it’ll be added in the next few days. This project is for you — to help you understand the why, not just the what. Let me know what you think.
https://traderslab.gitbook.io/primetrading
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