One of the simplest mindset shifts that quietly changed my trading was learning to stop building scenarios around what the market should do from here. The moment you commit to a narrative, you start filtering price action through it instead of reading what’s actually in front of you. Just follow the tape. The structure is there to tell you when you’re wrong, or when things are getting tired and about to shift, and that’s really the whole job.
No prediction required — just alignment with what’s unfolding.
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MARKET ANALYSIS
$QQQ PRICE ACTION
Uptrend above rising 21dma-structure.
Potential higher low in what could be a range between 694/714$. I’ll be watching for that range structure to hold and define boundaries for a digestion of the recent lockout trend.
If we break lower than 696$, then a run for the 21dma-structure is possible.
BREADTH $QQQ McClellan Oscillator / Summation (MCSI/MCO)
MCSI still in a downtrend below a declining 10dma. Breadth contraction regime.
MCO hook-up from oversold…that’s the potential setup for a continuation higher.
Same and even deeper oversold reading on MCO for the Liquid Leaders (LLs). Potential oversold signal if we can stabilize in the next few days.
360° MARKET VIEW $QQQ TLMM Dashboard
MARKET INTERNALS — Credit Spreads / VIX / Bitcoin
Alignment: mixed — defense leading, offense wobbling, vol asleep.
Credit Spreads: Inside day-ish, but still living above a now rising 21dma-structure. That’s the caution signal.
VIX: Now completely different picture for the VIX…with a clean rejection of the 21dma-structure and confirming a downside reversal today.
BTC: Living below a declining 21dma-structure.
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SECTORS & THEMES
Top 10 Leading THEMES - Relative Strength RANK sorted (W/ Leading & Setting up Stocks)
Top 10 Leading SECTORS - Relative Strength RANK sorted (W/ Leading & Setting up Stocks)
Themes Lab — Beta
Top-down theme tracker mapping 180+ themes by RS to surface where real strength lives before drilling into names.
Leading Themes (RS)
01 Memory — SEMIS & HW
02 Foundry — SEMIS & HW
03 Power Semiconductors — SEMIS & HW
04 Semiconductor Equipment — SEMIS & HW
05 Analog Semiconductors — SEMIS & HW
Semis dominating top 5 — +55% 3M with four themes above RS 90.
Top Setups @ 21dma-structure area
$SNDK 100 — Memory
$STX 100 — Memory
$MU 100 — Memory
$WDC 100 — Memory
$CIEN 100 — Optical Components
$LITE 100 — Photonic ICs
$PWR 100 — Grid Infrastructure
$TSEM 99 — Foundry
$ASML 99 — Semiconductor Equipment
$MTSI 99 — RF Semiconductors
$VRT 99 — AI Servers & Hardware
$BE 99 — Hydrogen
$COHR 99 — Photonic ICs
$INTC 98 — Foundry
$VICR 98 — Power Semiconductors
$ARM 98 — Analog Semiconductors
$AMAT 98 — Semiconductor Equipment
$MKSI 98 — Semiconductor Equipment
$LRCX 98 — Semiconductor Equipment
$GLW 98 — Optical Components
$DELL 98 — AI Servers & Hardware
$TTMI 98 — Electronics Mfg Services
$JBL 98 — Electronics Mfg Services
$MRVL 97 — AI Infrastructure
$AVGO 94 — AI Infrastructure
$NVT 97 — Grid Infrastructure
$Q 97 — Electronic Instruments
$MCHP 94 — Analog Semiconductors
$ALAB 95 — Connectivity Semiconductors
$GFS 95 — Foundry
$VIAV 94 — Optical Components
$NXT 94 — Renewables
$PL 91 — Earth Observation
$CF 90 — Specialty Chemicals
$LYB 90 — Specialty Chemicals
$SOLS 89 — Advanced Materials (trophy carry)
$APLD 89 — GPU Cloud & HPC (trophy carry)
$ESI 89 — Specialty Chemicals
$SANM 87 — Electronics Mfg Services
Takeaway Leadership is concentrated in Semiconductors & Hardware — Memory and Foundry running the show, with Equipment and Analog setting up right behind. Secondary strength building in Optical Components, Photonic ICs, and Grid Infrastructure. Watch Specialty Chemicals as a possible rotation candidate.
By: @TradersLab_
LEADERS STALKLIST
Liquid Leaders Universe (top RS)
SNDK, BE, SATS, VSAT, WDC, LITE, PL, STX, MU, CIEN, DOCN, CSCO, HUT, INTC, TSEM, RKLB, FTNT, AMD, TTMI, STM, DDOG, WULF, FLEX, CNC, VSH, BTSG, CRWD, PANW, OSCR, APLD, NBIS, VIAV, LRCX, TXN, TWLO, COHR, HUM, NOK, CAT, SMTC, MKSI, VICR, AKAM, ON, NVT, CIFR, MTSI, VRT, LSCC, ST
Liquid Leaders sorted by 1-Day Return (top daily RS)
Liquid Leaders Episodic Pivot (EP) sorted by Gap (Potential new Leader/Catalyst)
None
Liquid Leaders 21dma-structure Pullback scan (LONG)
SNDK, BE, WDC, PL, MU, NVTS, HUT, TSEM, AAOI, TTMI, APLD, VIAV, LRCX, COHR, MKSI, NVT, VRT, LSCC, AMAT, SANM, AVGO, IVZ, NXT, ARM, ROKU, MT, JBL, GFS, FLNC, VOYA, ALAB, DD, ILMN, MCHP, CGNX, BIIB, OUST, Q, WST, FPS, SUNB, LYB, GH, HWM, CF, CDNS, DAL, PII, LLY, MTCH, ODFL, TSLA, XYZ, TKO, IONQ, RVTY, CART, APP, WAT, EHC, CARR, AFRM, RDDT, IQV, SMCI, U, MOH, ARES, ORCL, PTC, SE
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
Mixed tape today — broad breadth was green across QQQ/SPY/IWM/NYSE, but Liquid Leaders took a real hit with a -90th GDB reading. On the back of that, MCO printed a proper oversold at -1.95σ.
Credit Spreads (SHY/HYG) remain the caution signal — still living above the rising 21dma-structure, but couldn’t make a new high → divergence. IWM holding its 21dma-structure, NQ chopping and basing in the range we respected today, and VIX gave a clean rejection of both swing high and declining 21dma-structure. The Iran headline risk for tomorrow looks off the table with the p.m. tweet — so it’s either taco trade or more fear from here.
What I did: Cut ONTO, ALGM, and USAR at the close. GEV is a judgment call — closed upper range into big support, will reassess tomorrow. Same read on LITE & VICR sitting right at structure low.
Gameplan forward: Not arguing with price, but not puking into oversold either. I have cushion from the market cycle low, so I’m reducing some exposure while staying well-exposed — we may have seen the oversold bounce setup. LLs MCO deeply oversold + VIX downside reversal + CS not making new highs while market pukes = a bet worth taking with structure still holding.
Tomorrow is a make-or-break spot. If weakness and selling persist, it could turn into a near-cash liquidation event. If structures hold and get defended again, I stay patient. No hero plays — if you don’t have the cushion, be extra careful here.
Good luck guys ✌️
Today’s action:
NEW:
ADDED: ARM, BE
TRIMMED:
OUT: ONTO, ALGM, USAR
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS, GAMEPLAN, and TOP IDEAS [05/18]
THE MARKET PICTURE (5-pillars checklist)
1. $QQQ Price Action — mixed
Uptrend still intact above rising 21dma-structure, but two big breakdown days have me in a potential higher-low range between 694/714.
Watching that range hold to define a digestion of the recent lockout. Break under 696 opens a run to 21dma-structure.
2. Breadth Regime — mixed
MCSI still below a declining 10dma — breadth contraction regime.
MCO hook-up from oversold on $QQQ, and an even deeper oversold print on the LLs (-1.95σ). That’s my bread and butter signal if it materializes.
3. Internals — mixed
Credit Spreads still living above a rising 21dma-structure — that’s the caution flag I can’t ignore.
VIX gave a clean rejection of swing high and declining 21dma-structure today — risk-on tell. BTC still under a declining 21dma-structure — risk-off.
4. Liquid Leaders Action — mixed
Leadership concentrated in Semis & Hardware — Memory, Foundry, Equipment all running. Top setups clustering at rising 21dma-structure.
Some leaders starting to crack below structure, but not the majority yet. Next few sessions tell me if this is digestion or distribution.
5. Portfolio & NER Feedback — neutral
Cut ONTO, ALGM, USAR into the close. Added ARM, BE. Reducing exposure while staying well-exposed — I’ve got cushion from the cycle low.
LITE and VICR sitting right at structure low — judgment calls tomorrow.
THE GAMEPLAN
Stress-test mode. The trend is still up and the move down was overdue after that lockout run — this is the kind of giveback I’d expect, and it’s part of the game to ride a trend. But two breakdown days plus leaders starting to wobble means I’m not pretending it’s all clean. I’m optimistic, not complacent — the LLs MCO deep oversold print is my bread and butter, VIX rejected, and structure on $QQQ is still holding in the range. That’s a bet worth taking with the cushion I have.
The make-or-break pillar is Liquid Leaders Action. If leaders keep cracking under 21dma-structure tomorrow, this turns from healthy digestion into something uglier — and that’s when I tighten up further toward a near-cash posture. If structures hold and get defended, I stay patient and let the oversold bounce setup do its work.
No hero plays here. I’m letting setups come to me on pullbacks into rising 21dma-structure, not chasing anything extended. Defense kicks in for me if Credit Spreads break to new highs while $QQQ loses 696 — that combo flips the read.
TOP IDEAS FOCUS LIST
In this regime, I’m only interested in names sitting at or near rising 21dma-structure — that’s where my edge lives, never chasing.
$LSCC (328) — Semiconductors
$VIAV (181) — Communication Equipment
$CF (1075) — Agricultural Inputs
$ARM (619) — Semiconductors
$BE (12) — Electrical Equipment
$INTC (80) — Semiconductors
REFERENCES
PT Wiki Is Now Live!!
After weeks of building, writing, editing, and organizing... I’ve finally wrapped up the Free PrimeTrading Wiki. This is the central place where I’ve documented my entire swing trading system — the mindset, process, setups, tools, and how I actually execute.
If you’ve ever wanted a full breakdown of how I approach the market day in and day out, this is it.
What’s Inside:
Alex's Swing Trading System – full framework, entries, sizing, market timing
TradersLab Scans – the exact filters I use to build my Focus List
Trading Psychology Reflections – key mindset shifts and lessons
Glossary of Terms – clear definitions so we’re all speaking the same language
Education Articles – deep dives on Risk Management and Market Structure
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