The Prime Report - 5/20

Evening Market Update & Strategic Insights

Ride the Trend — Don’t Guess the End

One of the biggest opportunity killers I see — and honestly one of the fastest ways traders destroy wealth — is trying to guess the end of a trend.

Whether it’s short-term or long-term, that urge to call the top or bottom way too early comes from a place of wanting to be right instead of staying aligned with strength. And more often than not, it leads to cutting winners short, stepping in front of momentum, or forcing trades that aren’t there.

The truth is, strong trends usually run longer and further than most expect. Your job isn’t to outsmart the market — it’s to ride the wave while it’s moving in your favor, and manage risk when the structure starts to break down.

Stick with what’s working. Let price tell the story — not your opinion.

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MARKET ANALYSIS

$QQQ PRICE ACTION

Uptrend above rising 21dma-structure.

Solid action today, as QQQ confirmed a daily reversal, and a strong push and close right up against the 714.59$ top range area.

A breakout would be ideal to confirm a continuation, but some more time in range would not be bad either.

BREADTH $QQQ McClellan Oscillator / Summation (MCSI/MCO)

MCSI is still in a downtrend below a declining 10dma. Breadth contraction regime.

MCO hook-UP today from an oversold reading.

Strong breadth today at +90th GDB, meaning breadth trust that almost flipped MCSI up in a day.

LIQUID LEADERS PRICE & BREADTH (PRICE/MCSI/MCO)

Price daily reversal above a rising 21dma-structure, plus a solid hook-up from deep oversold conditions. Potential continuation setup in progress.

360° MARKET VIEW $QQQ TLMM Dashboard

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MARKET INTERNALS — Credit Spreads / VIX / Bitcoin

Credit Spreads (SHY/HYG)

Just couldn’t ask for more on the Credit Spreads… big rejection of the structure we discussed last night, and breakdown all day to close at the lows below the 21dma-structure.

That was a big conviction booster at the close, even with NVDA earnings on deck.

Risk-on

VIX

Breakdown - risk-on

Bitcoin (BTC)

Daily reversal off that base structure, but still work to do to reclaim the 21dma-structure.

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SECTORS & THEMES

Top 10 Leading THEMES - Relative Strength RANK sorted (W/ Leading & Setting up Stocks)

Top 10 Leading SECTORS - Relative Strength RANK sorted (W/ Leading & Setting up Stocks)

Themes Lab — Beta 🧪

A top-down map of 180+ market themes ranked by relative strength — surfacing where leadership is concentrated and which names are coiling before the next leg.

LEADING THEMES (RS)

• Memory — RS 93 (#1)

• Foundry — RS 93 (#2)

• Analog Semiconductors — RS 85 (#3)

• Semiconductor Equipment — RS 83 (#4)

• Optical Components — RS 76 (#5)

Semis own the entire top of the board at +61% 3M, with Memory and Foundry both north of RS 92 on broad setup coils across the leadership cohort.

TOP SETUPS @ 21dma-structure area

• $STX 100 — Memory

• $WDC 100 — Memory

• $CIEN 100 — Optical Components

• $LITE 100 — Photonic ICs

• $PWR 100 — Grid Infrastructure

• $ASML 99 — Semiconductor Equipment

• $VRT 99 — AI Servers & Hardware

• $NBIS 99 — GPU Cloud & HPC

• $BE 99 — Hydrogen

• $CAT 99 — Engineering + Construction

THEMES SETTING UP (full breadth)

Watch the themes where the whole leadership board is coiling at the 21dma-structure area together — that’s where the cleanest follow-through tends to come from:

• Optical Components — $CIEN, $GLW, $VIAV, $OUST all setting up (4 of 5 leaders)

• Crypto Infrastructure — $HUT, $CRCL, $CORZ, $WULF all setting up (4 of 5 leaders)

• Engineering + Construction — $CAT, $MTZ, $LGN all setting up (3 of 3 leaders)

• Memory — $STX, $WDC setting up (2 of 4 leaders)

• Photonic ICs — $LITE, $COHR all setting up (2 of 2 leaders)

• Grid Infrastructure — $PWR, $NVT all setting up (2 of 2 leaders)

TAKEAWAY

Strength is overwhelmingly concentrated in Semiconductors — Memory, Foundry, and Equipment are leading the tape with full-cohort coils. Outside semis, watch Optical Components and Crypto Infrastructure, where entire leadership boards are setting up together for the cleanest rotation candidates.

By: @TradersLab_

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LEADERS STALKLIST

Liquid Leaders Universe (top RS)

SNDK, BE, SATS, VSAT, WDC, PL, LITE, MU, CIEN, STX, DOCN, INTC, NVTS, TSEM, STM, TTMI, AMD, VSH, BTSG, HUT, RKLB, LRCX, FTNT, WULF, SMTC, MKSI, LSCC, FLEX, CNC, DDOG, CRWD, FROG, TXN, MTSI, APLD, ALAB, ACMR, NXPI, CSCO, CAT, DVA, NOK, AMAT, MRVL, PANW, IRDM, NBIS, COHR, VIAV, ASML

Liquid Leaders sorted by 1-Day Return (top daily RS)

Liquid Leaders Episodic Pivot (EP) sorted by Gap (Potential new Leader/Catalyst)

None

Liquid Leaders 21dma-structure Pullback scan (LONG)

AXTI, BE, WDC, PL, CIEN, STX, HUT, APLD, CAT, NOK, AMAT, TIGO, NBIS, COHR, ASML, CIFR, NVT, SANM, IREN, TEVA, KLAC, GLW, GFS, FDX, JBL, IBKR, CORZ, ROKU, SOLS, CGNX, VOYA, Q, IVZ, HWM, MCHP, ILMN, VIK, TECK, QCOM, FLNC, RMBS, OUST, XPO, ALGM, CDNS, SIRI, ODFL, MTCH, CROX, TSLA

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PORTFOLIO UPDATE

Hey guys, clean tape today. Price into a new high and the internals are lining up for a reconfirmation of the trend — everything pointing the same direction except BTC, which is just lagging a touch.

Market picture:

QQQ is sitting right at the range top — that’s the level I’m watching. QQQE is breaking out underneath it, which is exactly what you want to see for participation. Breadth MCO hooked up from oversold and we’re at 0.01 from triggering an MCSI hook up — that would put the summation in an uptrend and confirm a breadth expansion regime. LLs showing a daily reversal off a deep MCO oversold hook. Internals look good.

Credit Spreads gave a HUGE rejection of the structure we talked about — even broke back below the 21dma-structure. That’s a big signal for me. VIX same breakdown, confirming the move.

BTC is the one lagging — still below structure, not confirming yet. But it’s holding the base pretty well, so I’m not reading it as a problem, just not adding to the case yet.

So all in all, the reconfirmation setup is here. I don’t mind carrying a bit more exposure over the next 1-3 days to capture that potential momentum. NVDA earnings after close will move, but for me it’s the market + internals setup that drives the decision, not the print. If you don’t have cushion on the cycle, SIZE DOWN — you don’t have to be as aggressive as me. Run your own feedback and analysis.

On my book:

The moves today are about staying in the strongest merchandise and keeping NER under control. Closing names like LITE that lost their structure isn’t a market call — it’s risk management and rotating that capital into better stuff before momo comes back. Being more active here in the transition isn’t overtrading, it’s getting positioned in the right names early.

This is where the real leaders separate. When the tape chops, the names with true relative strength POP — the ones holding above or at the rising 21dma-structure. If a name isn’t showing it, it gets rotated. LITE closed below the 21dma-structure on the retest, so that’s a rejection and a clean reason to manage NER into the close.

Good luck guys ✌️

Today’s action:

• NEW: NBIS, APLD, CRCL

• ADDED: TSLA, CAT

• TRIMMED: ARM (1/3), APLD (1/3), BE (1/3)

• OUT: LITE

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SITUATIONAL AWARENESS, GAMEPLAN, and TOP IDEAS [05/20]

THE MARKET PICTURE (5-pillars checklist)

1. $QQQ Price Action — risk-on

• Uptrend above rising 21dma-structure, confirmed a daily reversal with a strong push and close right up against the 714.59 top-range area.

• Character’s constructive — a breakout would confirm continuation, but more time in range here wouldn’t bother me either. Not stretched, room to work.

2. Breadth Regime — mixed

• MCSI still in a downtrend below a declining 10dma — breadth contraction regime, not flipped yet.

• MCO hooked up today off an oversold reading, and breadth was strong at +90th GDB — almost flipped MCSI up in a single day. This is the coil.

3. Internals — risk-on

• Credit Spreads gave a big rejection of the structure and broke back below the 21dma-structure, closing at the lows. VIX breakdown alongside it — both pointing risk-on, real conviction booster into the close even with NVDA on deck.

• BTC’s the laggard — daily reversal off base structure but still below 21dma-structure, work to do to reclaim. Not confirming, but holding the base.

4. Liquid Leaders Action — risk-on

• Price daily reversal above a rising 21dma-structure plus a solid hook-up from deep oversold. Potential continuation setup in progress.

• Setups clustering at rising 21dma-structure across Semis (Memory/Foundry leading), with Optical and Crypto Infra coiling underneath. Healthy rotation, no real red flags.

5. Portfolio & NER Feedback — risk-on

• Clean tape, price into a new high, internals lining up. The PF’s getting paid for the exposure I carried into the reconfirmation — rotating into the strongest merchandise (NEW: NBIS, APLD, CRCL; ADDED: TSLA, CAT), trimming the extended (ARM, APLD, BE), and cutting what lost structure (OUT: LITE). NER under control, tape’s rewarding patience.

THE GAMEPLAN

This is the textbook anticipation setup paying off. The market ran hard off the April low, started giving it back around April 17, and what I’m seeing now is price, internals, liquid leaders, and PF feedback all lining up for a reconfirmation of the trend out of an oversold condition. That’s exactly why I kept the extra exposure on — and the tape’s confirming the read.

The make-or-break pillar is Breadth. MCSI is the one thing that hasn’t flipped — still under a declining 10dma — but MCO hooked up hard and we’re a hair from triggering an MCSI hook-up. If breadth confirms over the next session or two, this whole picture tightens into a clean 5/5. That’s where I’m looking next. BTC reclaiming 21dma-structure is the secondary tell.

So panda time — patience. I’m not adding here. The plan for the next few days is to derisk into strength, trim that carried exposure down as the market pushes, and then mostly do nothing — let what’s working work. Defense kicks in if Internals or Breadth roll back risk-off — Credit Spreads reclaiming structure would be the warning. Until then I let the exposure ride and stay patient.

TOP IDEAS FOCUS LIST

In this regime I focus on leaders sitting at or near rising 21dma-structure — that’s where the cleanest risk/reward shows up on a continuation. I let them come to me on pullbacks, never chase the extended ones.

• $CAT (100) — Industrials / Agricultural Machinery

• $NBIS (98) — Internet Content & Information

• $COHR (98) — Tech Hardware / Optical

• $IBKR (95) — Financial Services / Brokers

• $CRCL (94) — Financial / Capital Markets

• $LUNR (86) — Aerospace & Defense

• $OUST (82) — Tech Hardware / Lidar

• $AFRM (74) — Software / Fintech

Structure-buys at/near rising 21dma-structure: $NBIS, $COHR, $IBKR, $LUNR, $OUST, $AFRM all sitting tight on or just above the line — those are the clean ones. $CAT and $CRCL look more extended off structure — leaders I’m tracking, not chasing.

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REFERENCES

PT Wiki Is Now Live!!

After weeks of building, writing, editing, and organizing... I’ve finally wrapped up the Free PrimeTrading Wiki. This is the central place where I’ve documented my entire swing trading system — the mindset, process, setups, tools, and how I actually execute.

If you’ve ever wanted a full breakdown of how I approach the market day in and day out, this is it.

What’s Inside:

• Alex's Swing Trading System – full framework, entries, sizing, market timing

• TradersLab Scans – the exact filters I use to build my Focus List

• Trading Psychology Reflections – key mindset shifts and lessons

• Glossary of Terms – clear definitions so we’re all speaking the same language

• Education Articles – deep dives on Risk Management and Market Structure

• Education Sessions – recorded walkthroughs: system, TLMM, process building

• Tools – my Trading Journal + TradingView scripts (21dma structure, ATR extensions)

The only piece still missing is the Discord Onboarding section — it’ll be added in the next few days. This project is for you — to help you understand the why, not just the what. Let me know what you think.

https://traderslab.gitbook.io/primetrading

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