Ride the Trend — Don’t Guess the End
One of the biggest opportunity killers I see — and honestly one of the fastest ways traders destroy wealth — is trying to guess the end of a trend.
Whether it’s short-term or long-term, that urge to call the top or bottom way too early comes from a place of wanting to be right instead of staying aligned with strength. And more often than not, it leads to cutting winners short, stepping in front of momentum, or forcing trades that aren’t there.
The truth is, strong trends usually run longer and further than most expect. Your job isn’t to outsmart the market — it’s to ride the wave while it’s moving in your favor, and manage risk when the structure starts to break down.
Stick with what’s working. Let price tell the story — not your opinion.
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MARKET ANALYSIS
$QQQ PRICE ACTION
Trend’s up and we’re making new highs — into Friday we ran right up into 722.03, the recent high, got rejected there and consolidated just below, closing the week under it. That’s about what you’d expect: some profit taking, people getting a little cautious heading into the long weekend. Price is still riding above a rising 21dma-structure, and with the McClellan summation hooking back up last week, the new high is a reconfirmation of the trend.
Extension’s not a concern here. ATR Dist. 21 EMA sits at 2.38 and ATR Dist. 10 WMA at 6.65 — stretched on the longer measure but nothing that says back off. Underneath, 714.59 is the first shelf, then 696.64, with the 21dma-structure tracking up well below around 692. Futures are up about 1.5% since last night, so unless something wild happens overnight, the likely scenario is a gap up into a fresh all-time high tomorrow.
I’m keeping it simple. Trend is up, we’re breaking to new highs, and I’m trusting it.
Things to watch:
722.03 — the level we rejected; a clean break and hold opens fresh air above
714.59 first support, then 696.64 if we see any pullback
21dma-structure rising into ~692 — the line that keeps the upturn intact
Gap-up open tomorrow on the 1.5% futures move — watch whether it holds or fades
A close back below 696.64 is what would make me question the trend
trend’s up, new highs, don’t overthink it.
BREADTH $QQQ McClellan Oscillator / Summation (MCSI/MCO)
MCSI UPTREND — breadth expansion regime intact. Sitting below a declining 10dma near-term, but the larger trend’s still up and the two-day hook (Thursday/Friday) is working to reclaim. MCO neutral at +0.42 — no extreme, plenty of room before overbought.
Expansion’s still the story. The dip under the 10dma is the pullback inside the uptrend, not a regime change — and the back-to-back hook says it’s already turning. Price made a new high in QQQE Friday even on the gap-up fade, normal into a long weekend. Hold the gap Monday and the summation reconfirms above the 10dma, putting the expansion regime back on solid footing. MCO nowhere near overbought, so room stays open to the upside.
Watching the 10dma reclaim Monday — that’s the confirmation.
Liquid Leaders Price & Breadth — Daily Check
Price: Trend is up — LL Composite is riding well above a rising 21dma-structure and just printed a fresh high (C: 440.50, +3.03%). Clean trend continuation; price is extended above the band but that’s normal leadership behavior, no backtest in play.
Breadth: MCSI is up near its highs and sitting on/just above a rising 10dma — that’s an expansion regime, confirming the strength. MCO (z 0.05) is sitting right at neutral after rolling down off the firm/overbought readings from the prior weeks. This is a fall from a high toward the middle, not a curl off an oversold low — so it’s neutral, no trigger.
Net: Price strong and breadth expanding — healthy uptrend, stance is hold/constructive. No oversold curl-up to act on yet; MCO is mid-range and would need to push down toward oversold and hook before a buy-the-dip setup fires. Callout: watch the MCO here — if it keeps drifting toward the -1σ/-2σ zone and turns, that’s the next add.
Standout names: $WDC, $CIEN, and $MU showing the cleanest structure — orderly rides above the band with no damage. $SATS is the lone wobble, slipping back into its band on a -3.30% day while the group holds up.
360° MARKET VIEW $QQQ TLMM Dashboard
MARKET INTERNALS — Credit Spreads / VIX / Bitcoin
CS (SHY/HYG) below DECLINING 21dma-structure. Risk-on. (1.03)
VIX below DECLINING 21dma-structure. Risk-on. (16.70)
BTC testing 21dma-structure from below, attempting reclaim. Risk-off → pending flip. (77,473)
2/3 clean risk-on; BTC the lone offside, but pressing for reclaim — majority calls risk-on.
Credit Spreads: 1.03, riding below a rolling-over 21dma since the early-April spike faded. The one that matters most, and it’s constructive — no credit cracks.
VIX: 16.70, suppressed and grinding lower below a declining structure. Fear bid is gone.
Bitcoin: 77,473. Lost the rising structure last week, but the multi-month base backtest held over the weekend and price is back at the 21dma — offense gauge knocking for a reclaim.
What I’d flag: Your ideal scenario is live — a BTC reclaim this week flips 3/3 and reconfirms full internal risk-on. What kills it: BTC rejects here and rolls, leaving offense offside while CS/VIX hold.
How I’d think about it:
Regime: risk-on, 2/3 confirmed
CS: clean, no widening — credit isn’t flagging stress
VIX: suppressed, vol bid absent
BTC: offside but backtesting for reclaim, not breaking down
Flip: BTC reclaims = 3/3 clean; BTC rejects = offense stays off, watch CS for confirmation
Defense holds, offense is one reclaim away from green.
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SECTORS & THEMES
Top 10 Leading THEMES - Relative Strength RANK sorted (W/ Leading & Setting up Stocks)
Top 10 Leading SECTORS - Relative Strength RANK sorted (W/ Leading & Setting up Stocks)
Themes Lab — Beta 🧪
Top-down read on where market leadership actually lives — 180+ themes ranked by relative strength, surfacing which groups are leading and which names are coiling into setups. RISK-ON.
LEADING THEMES (RS)
Memory — RS 90 (#1)
Analog Semiconductors — RS 85 (#2)
Semiconductor Equipment — RS 77 (#3)
Foundry — RS 90 (#4)
Earth Observation — RS 87 (#5)
Semis owning the tape at +31% monthly, with Memory and Analog both stacked above RS 97 on broad, deep leadership cohorts.
TOP SETUPS @ 21dma-structure area
$LITE RS 100 — Photonic ICs
$PWR RS 99 — Grid Infrastructure
$GLW RS 98 — Optical Components
$AMAT RS 98 — Semiconductor Equipment
$VRT RS 98 — AI Servers & Hardware
$ADI RS 97 — Analog Semiconductors
$NVDA RS 95 — AI Infrastructure
$SATS RS 95 — Connectivity
$NXT RS 94 — Renewables
$CRCL RS 94 — Crypto Infrastructure
THEMES SETTING UP (full breadth) Watch the themes where the whole leadership board is coiling at the 21dma-structure area together — that’s where the cleanest follow-through tends to come from:
Photonic ICs — $LITE, $COHR, $LASR all setting up (3 of 3 leaders)
Optical Components — $GLW, $VIAV both setting up (2 of 4 leaders)
AI Infrastructure — $NVDA, $AVGO both setting up (2 of 4 leaders)
Grid Infrastructure — $PWR, $NVT both setting up (2 of 3 leaders)
Crypto Infrastructure — $CRCL, $IREN both setting up (2 of 5 leaders)
TAKEAWAY Leadership is concentrated in Semiconductors & Hardware — Memory, Analog, and Semi Equipment carrying the tape — with Photonics and Optical Components the cleanest full-breadth coils to watch for follow-through.
By: @TradersLab_
LEADERS STALKLIST
Liquid Leaders Universe (top RS)
AXTI, SNDK, BE, VSAT, WDC, LITE, PL, CIEN, MU, STX, SATS, TSEM, HUT, DOCN, TTMI, VSH, INTC, WULF, LRCX, MXL, AEHR, STM, APLD, AMD, RKLB, FTNT, MKSI, NOK, CSCO, NBIS, SMTC, CIFR, BTSG, DDOG, HPE, NVTS, CNC, FCEL, MTSI, LSCC, FROG, DELL, ASML, COHR, IRDM, CRWD, LUNR, PENG, MRVL, FLEX
Liquid Leaders sorted by 1-Day Return (top daily RS)
Liquid Leaders Episodic Pivot (EP) sorted by Gap (Potential new Leader/Catalyst)
EL
Liquid Leaders 21dma-structure Pullback scan (LONG)
WULF, AAOI, AEHR, COHR, LASR, AMAT, CAT, IREN, GLW, NVT, TER, ATI, PWR, KEYS, ROKU, TECK, ILMN, IVZ, BIIB, VIK, ALGM, NXT, DD, MCHP, FTAI, ODFL, TSLA, ANET, IFF, SCCO, NET, TTWO, RVTY, ETSY, WAT, APP, SARO, CRCL, OC, ARES, TEAM, MOH, ORCL, WDAY, DKNG, GDDY, PAYC, IT
PORTFOLIO UPDATE 5/22
Hey guys. Action still looks good but the tape’s stretched here — QQQE running 3.5xATR from the 21ema and north of 7xATR from the 50ema, breadth pushing toward extreme. For me today this is about managing risk into a long weekend, not chasing.
Market picture
QQQE is extended and breadth is getting up there — not full-blown extreme yet, but close enough that I’m respecting it. This is the kind of stretch where you protect the gains you’ve already got rather than press.
LLs went soft into the close while QQQE keeps pushing out over its averages — that divergence is the tell. Credit Spreads still downtrend below a declining 21dma-structure, so no stress in the plumbing, but VIX is sitting in the same setup. BTC is the one flashing: breakdown of 21dma-structure, then retest, rejection, and a new low. That new low reconfirming the downtrend after the breakdown is the key element — probably needs more time below structure, we’ll see next week.
So all in all: the LLs softening and the PF action point to digestion or a stress-test — maybe just profit-taking into the long weekend, maybe more. Either way I want to be off margin going in, so I’m taking exposure down and getting flat on NER.
On my book
The cuts are pure risk management plus rotation, not a market call. NER wasn’t working and the laggards weren’t pulling their weight — AFRM and CRCL got cut as lagging names, IBIT closed for living below its 21dma-structure. I want to go into the long weekend with NER=0 and off margin, which is exactly where the trims get me. I came down from 150% exposure to 110% at the highs, then took it to 85% for the weekend — paying myself into strength so that if a stress-test hits, I’m in a posture to add and not puke.
The flip side of trimming laggards is leaning into the merchandise that’s actually working.
Enjoy your long weekend guys!! ✌️
Weekend update:
Couple things this morning, and that will affect NER & Exposure of my PF.
Thanks to @RZ46, I made 3 mistakes in recent trims made before 2R, but that I added the 2R price in the spreadsheet. So here’s the corrected version, which bring my NER at 0.2% as of now with those mistakes corrected.
You heard many times that people sell stocks for many reasons...well it was true for me last week as well. I needed to wire out money of the account (pay taxes), so Friday’s sale offer me the opportunity to do so. With that adjustment of capital, and not touching to my positions size, I am now at 100% exposure. I don’t remember the last time I did so, so don’t think it’s a common thing I do to adjust exposure like that....but when I say I really share all my main account trades and that I’m fully 100% transparent with it, well it goes with those type of money in/out that modify the exposure/capital too.
Here’s the updated PF spreadsheet reflecting those changes, and the screenshot of adjusted trims that I made mistakes.
Good luck for this week guys!! ✌️
Alex
Today’s action
NEW:
ADDED:
TRIMMED:
OUT: AFRM, CRCL, IBIT, IBKR
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS, GAMEPLAN, and TOP IDEAS [05/25]
THE MARKET PICTURE (5-pillars checklist)
1. $QQQ Price Action — risk-on
Trend’s up and riding above a rising 21dma-structure, printed a fresh all-time high. Got rejected at 722.03 into Friday and consolidated just below — normal profit-taking into a long weekend.
Extended on the longer measure (ATR Dist. 10wma at 6.65) but 21ema dist. only 2.38 — stretched, not a back-off signal. Shelves at 714.59, then 696.64, with 21dma-structure tracking up around 692.
2. Breadth Regime — risk-on
MCSI uptrend intact — sitting just below a declining 10dma near-term, but the two-day hook (Thu/Fri) is working to reclaim early this week. Expansion regime, not a regime change.
MCO neutral at +0.42 — no extreme, plenty of room before overbought.
3. Internals — risk-on
Credit Spreads (1.03) and VIX (16.70) both below declining 21dma-structure — clean risk-on, no credit cracks, fear bid gone.
BTC (77,473) testing 21dma-structure from below, pressing for a reclaim. The lone offside read — a reclaim this week flips internals to 3/3 clean.
4. Liquid Leaders Action — risk-on
LL Composite riding above a rising 21dma-structure, fresh high (C: 440.50, +3.03%). $WDC, $CIEN, $MU showing the cleanest structure. Setups clustering in Semis & Hardware — Memory, Analog, Photonics coiling at the band.
One wobble: $SATS slipped back into its band on a -3.30% day while the group held. Worth watching, not a flag.
5. Portfolio & NER Feedback — risk-on (defensively positioned)
Came down from 150% → 110% at the highs, then to 85% for the weekend — paid myself into strength. NER corrected to 0.2%, off margin, then took it back to 100% exposure on a capital wire-out. Tape’s paying; I’m choosing to bank rather than press.
THE GAMEPLAN
Lockout trend, and I’m keeping it simple. All five pillars are lined up risk-on — new all-time high, breadth expanding, internals clean with BTC one reclaim away from 3/3, and leaders pushing into new highs. Everything looks good, and I’m not arguing with it. But QQQE is running 3.5x ATR off the 21ema and north of 7x off the 50ma, and that’s the number governing my posture here.
My game doesn’t change just because the tape’s green. I’m trimming into strength and reducing exposure — the more I can take down this week into this stretch, the better positioned I am when a stress-test or pullback eventually hits. I don’t chase up here. New ideas come to me on pullbacks into rising 21dma-structure, not by reaching for extension. Giveback days are fine when they come — that’s part of riding a trend.
The make-or-break pillar is the BTC reclaim in Internals — that’s the one that flips the read from clean to fully confirmed, and it’s where I’m looking next. Defense kicks in for me if Internals or Breadth break — a BTC rejection that leaves offense offside while CS/VIX hold, or the MCSI failing to reclaim its 10dma. Until then I stay engaged but light, sitting on dry powder, ready to push exposure back into margin on the pullback I’m waiting for.
TOP IDEAS FOCUS LIST
These are the names I want — and in this stretch I’m only interested in them on pullbacks into rising 21dma-structure, not chasing extension.
$AAOI (75) — Semiconductors
$CAT (216) — Agricultural Machinery
$NVT (273) — Electrical Equipment & Parts
$TWLO (435) — Software / Infrastructure
$PWR (528) — Engineering & Construction
$KEYS (538) — Hardware, Equipment & Parts
$NVDA (1182) — Semiconductors
$CRCL (2570) — Capital Markets / Crypto Infrastructure
REFERENCES
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