Alex’s PF performance. - May 2026 📊🛡️
MTD ( +23.3% )
YTD ( +26.8% )
YTD benchmark QQQ ( +19% )
Hey guys!
What a month —best monthly return since 2020 for me—another cruise month, back-to-back after April, and I’m very happy with my execution overall. We can always be better and keep improving, but this was a clean follow-through on everything I talked about last month: trust the system, trust the process, get size in the right names, and let the trend do the work.
The one thing I’ll flag on myself is that I went into that mid-month pullback a bit too exposed. I took some heat and drew down more than I wanted — but I played it well from there. I recognized the constructive action, held my positions, stayed patient, and that let me recover the drawdown super quickly and push my EC into a fresh all-time high. That’s the difference between reacting to noise and trusting what price is actually telling you.
This month really came down to two things. First, adding to my core positions and trading around that core in what I see as the liquid leaders of the leading groups and themes — I did more of that and it paid well. Second, having real size in those leaders and staying patient with it, trusting the trend even when it looked extended. There’s a lot of money to be lost trying to anticipate the end of a move, and I did well by simply not trying to do that.
The win rate came in at 44.4% with a 1.94 RRR, and I pushed +36.2R in profits on the month. Lower hit rate than April, but it didn’t matter — my winners did the heavy lifting at a 10.8% avg gain (biggest +47.6%) while I kept my losers tight at -4.3% avg. That asymmetry is the whole game: let the winners run, cut the losers fast.
Now it’s about staying disciplined and capturing the best part of this trend for as long as it lasts. Let’s kill June, let’s go! 💪
Cheers,
Alex ✌️
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MARKET ANALYSIS
$QQQ PRICE ACTION
QQQ in an uptrend above a rising 21dma-structure and made a new ATH on Friday… keep it simple.
BREADTH $QQQ McClellan Oscillator / Summation (MCSI/MCO)
MCSI FLAT above 10dma - breadth expansion while MCO/MCSI not overbought… keep it simple.
Liquid Leaders Price & Breadth — Daily Check
Price above a rising 21dma-structure
Breadth still flat-ish (digestion)
360° MARKET VIEW $QQQ TLMM Dashboard
MARKET INTERNALS — Credit Spreads / VIX / Tech vs Staples
CS (SHY/HYG) below DECLINING 21dma-structure. Risk-on.
VIX below DECLINING 21dma-structure. Risk-on
XLK/XLP above RISING 21dma-structure. Risk-on.
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Themes Lab — Beta 🧪
A top-down map of 180+ market themes — what’s leading by relative strength and which names are coiling underneath. Tape is RISK-ON, and leadership is heavily concentrated in semis.
LEADING THEMES (RS)
- Memory — RS 98.2 (#1)
- Foundry — RS 94.2 (#2)
- Analog Semiconductors — RS 85.0 (#3)
- Semiconductor Equipment — RS 80.0 (#4)
- Earth Observation — RS 88.4 (#5)
Semis dominate the tape at +77% 3M, with Memory and Foundry both above RS 94 on broad setup coils.
TOP SETUPS @ 21dma-structure area
- $TSEM 99 — Foundry
- $MTSI 99 — RF Semiconductors
- $TXN 98 — Analog Semiconductors
- $TTMI 98 — Electronics Mfg Services
- $GLW 97 — Optical Components
- $RMBS 96 — Memory
- $BKSY 95 — Earth Observation
- $BE 95 — Hydrogen
- $NVDA 94 — AI Infrastructure
- $SATS 92 — Connectivity
THEMES SETTING UP (full breadth)
Watch the themes where the whole leadership board is coiling at the 21dma-structure area together — that’s where the cleanest follow-through tends to come from:
- Foundry — $TSEM, $INTC both setting up (2 of 3 leaders)
- Electronics Mfg Services — $TTMI, $JBL both setting up (2 of 3 leaders)
- Advanced Materials — $CENX, $SOLS both setting up (2 of 4 leaders)
TAKEAWAY
This is a semiconductor tape — Memory, Foundry, Analog Semiconductors, and Semiconductor Equipment are all leading, with leaders coiling at support rather than extended. Cleanest rotation to watch: Foundry, where $TSEM and $INTC are setting up together.
By: @TradersLab_
LEADERS STALKLIST
Liquid Leaders Universe (top RS)
SNDK, MU, BE, WDC, PL, VSAT, STX, CIEN, SATS, DELL, AMD, NBIS, DOCN, BTSG, FLEX, VSH, LRCX, DDOG, RKLB, APLD, AA, FTNT, MKSI, STM, HBM, HPE, CRWD, RDW, TSEM, MT, GH, INTC, CSCO, TER, ARM, FROG, IRDM, TTMI, ALAB, CENX, LSCC, AMAT, PANW, ACMR, CNC, INOD, LUNR, SMTC, ATI, TECK, PENG, CRDO, ASML, BB, ILMN, BWA, NVT, COHR, ASTS, DAL, MRVL, OUST, TKR, RAL, KEEL, ORA, VIK, NOK, ST, CORZ, BKSY, NTAP, HUM, ON, KNX, DVA, NXT, KLAC, AAON, FPS, NVTS, LUMN, TIGO, AKAM, TWLO, MTSI, POWI, JBL, AVT, ROKU, SYNA, TWST, GLW, CROX, RMBS, QCOM, MGM, CGNX, IONQ, ODFL
Liquid Leaders Episodic Pivot (EP) sorted by Gap (Potential new Leader/Catalyst)
DELL, HPE, OKTA, NTAP, SMCI, NOW
Liquid Leaders 21dma-structure Pullback scan (LONG)
BE, SATS, DOCN, TSEM, MXL, INTC, TER, TTMI, CENX, NVT, COHR, CAT, DVA, KLAC, TWLO, MTSI, JBL, CLS, CGNX, ADI, MOD, Q, SOLS, LTH, OSCR, ALGM, MCHP, DKS, HWM, ENTG, FLY, TXRH, ZM, ETN, P, CRWV, ZBRA, IT
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS, GAMEPLAN, and TOP IDEAS 05/29
THE MARKET PICTURE (5-pillars checklist)
1. $QQQ Price Action — risk-on
Uptrend, riding above a rising 21dma-structure, fresh ATH into Friday’s close — trend posture is clean.
Stretched above the 21dma-structure after the run off the April lows, but this week was digestion, not a vertical push. Mixed-bar character up here reads as normal rest, not a top tell yet.
2. Breadth Regime — risk-on
MCSI flat above its 10dma with breadth still expanding underneath — participation’s holding.
MCO/MCSI not overbought, so there’s still room. No bearish divergence against the new highs.
3. Internals — risk-on
Credit spreads (SHY/HYG) below a declining 21dma-structure and VIX below a declining 21dma-structure — both pointing risk-on, nothing flashing.
XLK/XLP above a rising 21dma-structure — tech still leading staples, risk appetite intact.
4. Liquid Leaders Action — risk-on
Leaders holding above rising 21dma-structure; healthy internal rotation as software stepped up while the recent AI/semis names took a day to rest. Setups clustering at support — Foundry ($TSEM, $INTC), Electronics Mfg ($TTMI, $JBL), optics/photonics.
Leaders coiling at structure rather than extended — that’s the constructive look. No red flags.
5. Portfolio & NER Feedback — risk-on
NER at -1.15% (new-exposure risk open on last week’s adds), Open Heat -17.24%. Locked 1/3 of $GLW at 2R off its rising 21dma-structure and added to $BE — the tape’s paying the right-side entries and leaders are holding. The book’s leaning in with the YTD cushion behind it.
THE GAMEPLAN
Trend’s intact and I’ve already done my buying. I leaned into last week’s weakness and raised exposure on the dips into rising 21dma-structure — so up here, I’m not pushing the book further. All five pillars are risk-on, but $QQQ is stretched and the week’s been digestion, which means my job now is to trim into strength, not chase it. If momentum comes back and the newer stuff extends, those pops are my exits — let the tape hand me the trims.
That ties straight to the $ARM note: I’ll look to trim some into any MSFT-news pop at the open — if it gives me the extension, I take it rather than holding for the last dollar. Same logic across the book: manage what’s working, bank strength on the extended names, and let fresh ideas come to me on pullbacks into structure instead of initiating up here.
The pillar I’m watching most is breadth (MCSI/MCO) — flat above the 10dma, expanding but not roaring. As long as it keeps participation up while price digests, the rest resolves higher and I stay engaged. If MCSI rolls under its 10dma while $QQQ sits extended at the highs, that’s the divergence that flips me — that’s when I tighten stops on the extended names and wait. Internals would have to break for me to go properly defensive; until then this is digestion, not distribution, and giveback days up here are just part of riding the trend.
TOP IDEAS FOCUS LIST
These are my names — I want them on pullbacks into rising 21dma-structure, not chased into extension. Structure-buys come to me.
$BE (16) — Electrical Equipment / Hydrogen
$INTC (101) — Semiconductors / Foundry
$NVT (236) — Electrical Equipment
$COHR (238) — Hardware & Equipment / Optical
$TWLO (444) — Software / Infrastructure
$GLW (474) — Hardware & Equipment / Optics
$OSCR (929) — Healthcare Plans
$NVDA (1083) — Semiconductors / AI Infrastructure
REFERENCES
PT Wiki Is Now Live!!
After weeks of building, writing, editing, and organizing... I’ve finally wrapped up the Free PrimeTrading Wiki. This is the central place where I’ve documented my entire swing trading system — the mindset, process, setups, tools, and how I actually execute.
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Alex's Swing Trading System – full framework, entries, sizing, market timing
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