Really grateful to everyone who has already donated for the ride and to help children fighting cancer through Leucan. ❤️
I know times are not easy for everyone, so there’s absolutely no pressure here, but if PrimeTrading or anything I shared over the years helped you in your trading journey, this is a pretty meaningful way to give back.
Even small donations can make a real difference when a community comes together.
Appreciate you all. 🙏
I’ll be riding the Gran Fondo Québec on August 15th, taking on the 122km route.
Gran Fondo Québec is a cycling event on open roads through the Quebec City region, bringing together riders of all levels. It’s not about racing, it’s about the challenge, the experience, and pushing yourself over a long distance.
This year, I’ll be doing it with a purpose.
I’m raising funds for Leucan, a Canadian organization that supports children with cancer and their families through financial assistance, emotional support, and essential services along the way.
If you’d like to support the cause, you can do so here:
https://journeeleucan.crowdchange.ca/112786/page/408050
Every contribution makes a difference, appreciate it 🙏
PrimeTrading is an equity SWING trading community to learn & trade alongside experienced traders. It's like sneaking into a trader's POD, where you can see us execute & discuss...but in ours, you can also interact and ask questions.
I would have killed for such an opportunity when I started trading! 🔥
Education & mentoring from Alex & experienced traders.
See how I execute intraday while I share all my trades with explanations live.
Alex's daily market commentary, Portfolio updates, trade explanations, and daily FocusList.
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Early Market Sessions and Q&A 5x week.
Trade & learn with us, from Novice to Expert!
Cheers, Alex 🛡️✌️
MARKET ANALYSIS
$QQQ PRICE ACTION
Daily in a UPTREND ABOVE RISING 21dma-structure. 3.93x ATR-21ema & 8.24xATR-10wma…. very extended
Rest day, as the market was unable to push higher. It’s OK, we need some digestion, even if this is a lockout rally still. Will today lead to a multi-day pullback, or once again, will that one-day stress-test be enough?
RTY/IWM small caps retesting base structure, interesting spot for outside mega-caps.
BREADTH $QQQ McClellan Oscillator/Summation (MCSI/MCO)
- MCSI UPTREND ABOVE RISING 10dma & NEUTRAL. (+0.50σ)
- MCO NEUTRAL. (+0.21σ)
Still breadth expansion regime.
360° MARKET VIEW $QQQ TLMM Dashboard
Uptrend
Tape is constructive: $QQQE trending cleanly above the 21dma-structure area with breadth internals turning back up after a healthy reset.
📈 Price Action ($QQQE)
Trading 112.44, well above the 21dma-structure area
Clean stair-step trend off the April lows — consecutive higher highs, no distribution character
Mild -0.14% daily pullback, ADRP 0.96% (orderly)
🌡️ Breadth Internals (MCSI / MCO)
MCSI z-score 0.50, above a rising 10dma (0.39) → constructive backdrop intact
MCO z-score 0.21 — neutral, neither oversold nor overbought
Translation: trend is on, no exhaustion signal, no dip signal yet — carry positions, no chase
👀 Breadth Snapshot
$NDX 100 leading: 61.4% above 21EMA, 59.4% above 50SMA, GDB rank +19.4
New highs/lows: NDX 10/1, Russell 101/20 — broad participation under the surface
Sector standouts: Technology (60% > 21EMA), Real Estate GDB +27.9
Laggards: Energy (-74 GDB), Utilities (-70), Industrials (-71) — defensives + cyclicals soft, classic risk-on rotation
Takeaway
Regime: Uptrend, risk-on. Lean long, respect the 21dma-structure area on $QQQE as the line.
MCO neutral means next oversold dip is the buy — not chasing strength here.
Watch: MCO push above +1σ = caution flag. Loss of 21dma-structure area + MCSI rolling under 10dma = regime change.
MARKET INTERNALS
Credit Spreads (SHY/HYG)
DOWNTREND below a declining 21dma-structure - risk-on.
VIX (Volatility S&P500)
DOWNTREND below a declining 21dma-structure - risk-on.
#BTC (Bitcoin)
UPTREND above a declining 21dma-structure - risk-on.
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SECTORS & THEMES
Top 10 Leading THEMES - Relative Strength RANK sorted (W/ Leading & Setting up Stocks)
Top 10 Leading SECTORS - Relative Strength RANK sorted (W/ Leading & Setting up Stocks)
Themes Lab - Top Groups/Themes + Leading & Setting up Stocks (@21dma-structure)
🧪 Themes Lab — Beta
Top-down RS map across 180+ themes. Surfaces where leadership lives and which names are setting up inside those themes — before drilling into individual charts.
🏆 Leading Themes (RS)
Memory — RS 95
Power Semiconductors — RS 94
Semiconductor Equipment — RS 80
Oil & Gas Refining — RS 86
Analog Semiconductors — RS 86
Semis dominating the tape — 4 of top 5 themes, all running +31% monthly.
👀 Top Setups @ 21dma-structure area
$VICR 99 — Power Semiconductors
$ONTO 98 — Semiconductor Equipment
$AEHR 97 — Semiconductor Equipment
$FORM 97 — Semiconductor Equipment
$AMKR 95 — Analog Semiconductors
$LSCC 96 — Analog Semiconductors
$BE 99 — Hydrogen
$CIEN 99 — Optical Components
$LITE 99 — Photonic ICs
$YOU 93 — Identity & Verification AI
$ALB 94 — Battery Materials
$SQM 92 — Battery Materials
$TT 95 — HVAC
$WSO 94 — HVAC
$AGPU 65 — GPU Cloud & HPC (trophy carry)
Closing Takeaway
Tape is risk-on and Semis are the engine — Memory, Power, Equipment, Analog all firing together.
Cleanest setups stacking inside Semi Equipment (ONTO/AEHR/FORM) and Power Semis ($VICR).
Watch rotations into Optical/Photonics ($CIEN, $LITE) and Battery Materials ($ALB, $SQM) for next leg breadth.
LEADERS STALKLIST
Liquid Leaders Universe (top RS)
AXTI, SNDK, BE, WDC, STX, LITE, MU, SATS, MXL, INTC, CIEN, APLD, FLEX, AEHR, ONDS, AMD, AAOI, PL, NBIS, LRCX, DOCN, STM, CAT, FORM, TTMI, MTSI, VRT, NVT, TSEM, MCHP, MKSI, PWR, VIAV, AMKR, ON, TWLO, SMTC, GLW, CRDO, TXN, DDOG, CLS, TER, COHR, AMAT, DELL, ASML, ROKU, GFS, NET
Liquid Leaders sorted by 1-Day Return (top daily RS)
Liquid Leaders Episodic Pivot (EP) sorted by Gap (Potential new Leader/Catalyst)
DDOG, MTSI, AXON, MDB
Liquid Leaders 21dma-structure Pullback scan (LONG)
BE, LITE, AEHR, NVTS, AMKR, CLS, COHR, ATI, GEV, ENTG, ALAB, RMBS, CVNA, BLD, RDDT, HPQ, ADBE
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
Hey guys!
We did we discussed last night and in the last few days? Music would stop? Today was giveback day, and that was expected.
Price/Breadth/Internals/LLs continue to be in line with a risk-on market, so I’m trying really hard to not focus on calling a top or the start of a pullback, and just executing the top Themes & Leaders that came back to retest their rising 21dma-structure above their base structure and on still a higher low.... I treat today as an opportunity, unless the leaders begin to crack their 21dma-structure tomorrow with probably Credit Spreads spiking above the 21dma-structure it’s right up against....that would be the red flag for me to switch to defense and start cutting more exposure.
Today I decided to re-add exposure, for -1.8%NER in the Top Themes/Leaders. I have bad entries on my new trades from today.... but again I’m just aiming to have that leader’s exposure at the 21dma-structure when weakness happens... so no sniper entries, but I have the exposure I want at the proper structure backtest.
NER up to -1.8% % after closing XYZ (ER)/LUNR (RKLB ER), and opening 4 new positions. Open Heat at -12%, with a shrinking Open Delta of +23.44% on this market cycle. Risk is known and managed... and cushion was built to test those weak days into the leaders instead of seeing those days as being threatening.
Cheers HAGN!
Today’s action:
NEW: LITE, COHR, CLS, ONTO
ADDED:
TRIMMED:
OUT: XYZ, LUNR
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS, GAMEPLAN, and TOP IDEAS 05/7
THE MARKET PICTURE (5-pillars checklist)
QQQ Price Action (risk-on)
Daily in a UPTREND ABOVE RISING 21dma-structure. 3.93x ATR-21ema & 8.24xATR-10wma…. very extended
Failed new high - pause or reversal?
Lockout trend above the rising structure… keep it simple, but reduce exposure and manage risk at these levels (IMPORTANT).
Breadth regime (risk-on)
MCSI is back in an uptrend above the rising 10dma.
MCO neutral
Internals (risk-on)
Credit Spreads & VIX are both in a downtrend below a declining 21dma-structure.
BTC is in an uptrend above a rising 21dma-structure.
Liquid Leaders action (risk-on)
Liquid Leaders acting strong, no red flags to report with still groups rotation keeping the LLs basket strong.
We are in a make-or-break spot for a lot of Liquid Leaders, especially in the semis/photonics/opticals, etc., leaders are back at their rising 21dma-structure.
Portfolio & NER feedback
Giveback day, and that’s OK…part of the game to ride a trend.
THE GAMEPLAN
Alright, good stress-test / pullback today, and I continue to see this as an opportunity with the way a lot of recent Liquid Leaders are sitting right at or just above their rising 21dma-structure. I want to focus on those leaders before the indices, and that’s why I saw today and probably tomorrow too, as an opportunity.
If they fail to hold their structure, Credit Spreads spike, and MCSI hook-down, then it will be time to reduce NER & exposure to play defense.
This is an opportunity until we reach that picture. Could be in the next few days.
TOP IDEAS FOCUS LIST
Like I mentioned above… A LOT of leaders are in their 21dma-structure buy area.
Plenty of top leaders to choose from. I like to focus on the top RS Rank first.
AEHR, ALAB, AVGO, BE, CLS, COHR, LITE, NVTS, RDDT, RMBS, SIRI, SKYT
REFERENCES
PT Wiki Is Now Live!!
After weeks of building, writing, editing, and organizing... I’ve finally wrapped up the Free PrimeTrading Wiki. This is the central place where I’ve documented my entire swing trading system — the mindset, process, setups, tools, and how I actually execute.
If you’ve ever wanted a full breakdown of how I approach the market day in and day out, this is it.
What’s Inside:
Alex's Swing Trading System – full framework, entries, sizing, market timing
TradersLab Scans – the exact filters I use to build my Focus List
Trading Psychology Reflections – key mindset shifts and lessons
Glossary of Terms – clear definitions so we’re all speaking the same language
Education Articles – deep dives on Risk Management and Market Structure
Education Sessions – recorded walkthroughs: system, TLMM, process building
Tools – my Trading Journal + TradingView scripts (21dma structure, ATR extensions)
The only piece still missing is the Discord Onboarding section — it’ll be added in the next few days. This project is for you — to help you understand the why, not just the what. Let me know what you think.
https://traderslab.gitbook.io/primetrading
I really hope that you enjoyed it. If you did, please share it & hit the LIKE button so that more folks can be reached and this Newsletter can grow. :)