NEW EDUCATION ARTICLE AVAILABLE IN GITBOOK!!
Portfolio-Level Risk Management
How I Size, Sequence, and Control Exposure Across a Cycle
Most traders track their accounts. Very few manage it. The difference is whether the picture in front of you is a snapshot or a system. A snapshot tells you how things look right now. A system tells you what you can do next, and what you should not.
This article is about the system I run at the portfolio level — the metrics I track, what each one actually answers, and how they shape decisions throughout the life of a trend.
https://traderslab.gitbook.io/primetrading/education-articles/portfolio-level-risk-management
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SITUATIONAL AWARENESS, GAMEPLAN, and TOP IDEAS 6/17
THE MARKET PICTURE (5-pillars checklist)
1. $QQQ Price Action — risk-on
Pulled back right into the rising 21dma-structure and the 723 swing-high pivot — exactly the spot I wanted to see a backtest. Closed 722.51, -1.01%.
ATR Dist. 21ema at 0.24, 10wma at 1.37 — extension is fully worked off. Price first, and that’s the read.
2. Breadth Regime — mixed
MCSI at -0.44, below the 10dma — still soft, this is the make-or-break pillar.
MCO normalized at -1.17, washed out. ST breadth (% > 5SMA) flushed to 20.79 — that’s oversold territory I respect.
3. Internals — risk-on
Credit spreads (SHY/HYG) still below their declining 21dma-structure — no red flags.
VIX sitting right in structure. No stress signal from either internal.
4. Liquid Leaders Action — risk-on
LLs stronger than mega caps and weaker pockets of the tape, with a clean ST breadth washout underneath them.
Semis remain the spine — Memory, Equipment, Analog, Connectivity all coiling at 21dma-structure together. AI Infrastructure adjacency (GPU Cloud, AI Servers, Database) is the cleanest rotation pocket.
5. Portfolio & NER Feedback — risk-on
Constructive backtest day — FOMC vol, market closed red right into the spot I wanted.
Action: NEW $KEYS, $POWI / ADDED none / TRIMMED $CORZ (2R), $NBIS (4/6 at 173%), $ARM (4/9 at 202%) / CLOSED none
NE/CE 0.52x, UER 34%, Total Exposure 99.5%, off margin — fresh share is real, not a thin probe. Risk known, risk managed.
THE GAMEPLAN
Pullback into rising structure with ST breadth washed out — that’s my setup grid. I executed today on what the pillars gave me. Price first, FOMC happened with the new chair, and yeah it can fail — but I like the odds right here.
The make-or-break pillar is breadth — specifically MCSI hooking back above its 10dma and trending up. That’s the regime confirmation I’m watching the next few sessions. If it hooks, the fresh layer (KEYS, POWI) pays and I’m right where I want to be. If it doesn’t, the new exposure is sized clean off the 21dma-low and the stops do the work.
I’m staying out of the market-top narrative just because we’re red two days in a row, and I’m staying out of the macro noise around rates and inflation — that’s not how I trade. Five pillars, that’s it. OPEX Friday and lingering FOMC vol means nothing’s certain, but my book is positioned, off margin, with risk under control. If we gain traction off this support area tomorrow, I already have the exposure I want — and from there it goes back to trimming into strength on what extends.
TOP IDEAS FOCUS LIST
The cleanest setups in this regime show up on pullbacks into rising 21dma-structure — these are the names I’m focused on, not chasing.
$BE (14) — Industrials • Electrical Equipment & Parts
$DOCN (48) — Technology • Software - Infrastructure
$NVT (241) — Industrials • Electrical Equipment & Parts
$CRDO (361) — Technology • Communication Equipment
$POWI (425) — Technology • Semiconductors
$FLEX (434) — Technology • Hardware, Equipment & Parts
$FROG (447) — Technology • Software - Application
$PENG (471) — Technology • Hardware, Equipment & Parts
$OUST (651) — Technology • Hardware, Equipment & Parts
$CLS (715) — Technology • Hardware, Equipment & Parts
$SNOW (725) — Technology • Software - Application
$CRWD (811) — Technology • Software - Infrastructure
PORTFOLIO UPDATE 6/17
Hey guys, hope you had a great day. FOMC today, rate decision, lots of vol up and down — that’s what we expected and that’s what we got. Market closed red, but right into the spot I was looking for.
Market picture
QQQ pulled back right into the rising 21dma-structure and the recent swing high pivot at 723. That was the spot I wanted to see a backtest. ST breadth got washed out, MCO is now oversold too — that’s my typical setup grid.
Credit spreads still below their declining 21dma-structure, VIX right in structure — no red flags on the internals. LLs are stronger than mega caps and other weaker areas of the tape. Not perfect, there’s some good and some bad, but the setup I want is there.
So all in all, I executed on the pullback into rising structure with ST breadth washed out. Price first, FOMC just happened with the new chair, and yeah, it can fail — but I like the odds here.
On my book
I leaned in. New layer is on with NER at the budget — KEYS and POWI as fresh adds, both sized clean off the 21dma-low. The fresh stuff hasn’t been paid yet, NE Δ is sitting right where the new exposure went on, so this is the “now we see” part. Tomorrow either pays or it doesn’t.
Trimmed into strength on what was extended — CORZ at 2R, NBIS (4/6) at 173%, ARM (4/9) at 202%. That’s not a market call, that’s just managing extension and freeing budget for the new layer. Cores keep doing core work.
Book sits at NE/CE 0.52x and UER 34%, so the fresh share is real this time, not a thin probe. FER is fine, off margin, Total Exposure at 99.5%. Risk is known, risk is managed — that’s all I can do. If it works, great. If it fails, that’s part of the game.
Good luck guys ✌️
Today’s action:
NEW: KEYS, POWI
TRIMMED: CORZ, NBIS, ARM
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Themes Lab — 6/17 🧪
Top-down read across 180+ themes ranked by RS. Where the leadership is coiling at the 21dma-structure area is where the cleanest follow-through tends to come from.
LEADING THEMES (RS)
• Memory — RS 87 (#1)
• Semiconductor Equipment — RS 85 (#2)
• Analog Semiconductors — RS 74 (#3)
• Managed Care — RS (#4)
• Logistics — RS 75 (#5)
Semis dominating the tape at +93% 3M, with Memory and Equipment both north of RS 85 and broad constituent participation across the complex.
TOP SETUPS @ 21dma-structure area
• $ARM 100 — Analog Semiconductors
• $AMD 99 — AI Infrastructure
• $CRDO 99 — Connectivity Semiconductors
• $DOCN 97 — GPU Cloud & HPC
• $NTAP 97 — GPU Cloud & HPC
• $STLD 98 — Advanced Materials
• $NUE 97 — Advanced Materials
• $ODFL 96 — Logistics
• $SMTC 96 — Connectivity Semiconductors
• $FLEX 96 — Electronics Mfg Services
THEMES SETTING UP (full breadth)
Watch the themes where the whole leadership board is coiling at the 21dma-structure area together — that’s where the cleanest follow-through tends to come from:
• GPU Cloud & HPC — $DOCN, $NTAP, $APLD all setting up (3 of 5 leaders)
• AI Servers & Hardware — $PENG, $HPE, $ANET all setting up (3 of 5 leaders)
• Database & Data Platform — $DDOG, $SNOW, $MDB all setting up (3 of 5 leaders)
• Advanced Materials — $STLD, $NUE all setting up (2 of 5 leaders)
• Power Semiconductors — $STM, $POWI all setting up (2 of 5 leaders)
• Connectivity Semiconductors — $CRDO, $SMTC all setting up (2 of 5 leaders)
• Foundry — $GFS, $INTC all setting up (2 of 5 leaders, trophy carry)
TAKEAWAY
Semis remain the spine of the tape — Memory, Equipment, Analog, Connectivity all coiling together. AI Infrastructure adjacency (GPU Cloud, AI Servers, Database) is the cleanest rotation pocket outside the core semi complex.
By: @TradersLab_
LEADERS STALKLIST
Liquid Leaders Universe (top RS)
SNDK, WDC, MU, BE, STX, LITE, VSCO, ICHR, INTC, AEHR, UCTT, LRCX, DOCN, AMAT, MKSI, GTX, TSEM, TER, TTMI, KLAC, STLD, STM, AMD, VECO, ATI, M, ONTO, ASML, COHU, TIGO, VIAV, JBHT, VSH, AMKR, FORM, MT, ALAB, SATS, KNX, ACMR, SMTC, DELL, CHRW, MRVL, ODFL, ARM, TKR, DAL, JBL, CAT
Liquid Leaders 21dma-structure Pullback scan (LONG)
BE, AEHR, DOCN, INTC, TSEM, TER, FORM, AMD, STM, APLD, NVT, STLD, TIGO, HBM, NUE, CRDO, LSCC, FCX, DAL, KEYS, MOD, AEIS, AVT, TECK, POWI, FLEX, SMTC, FROG, MTSI, SOLS, PENG, MGM, GFS, Q, BWA, ANET, CGNX, FLNC, ADI, HPE, BURL, JCI, OUST, SCCO, INOD, CDNS, ST, SNOW, TXN, PWR
Liquid Leaders Episodic Pivot (EP) sorted by Gap (Potential new Leader/Catalyst)
None
REFERENCES
PT Wiki Is Now Live!!
After weeks of building, writing, editing, and organizing... I’ve finally wrapped up the Free PrimeTrading Wiki. This is the central place where I’ve documented my entire swing trading system — the mindset, process, setups, tools, and how I actually execute.
If you’ve ever wanted a full breakdown of how I approach the market day in and day out, this is it.
What’s Inside:
Alex's Swing Trading System – full framework, entries, sizing, market timing
TradersLab Scans – the exact filters I use to build my Focus List
Trading Psychology Reflections – key mindset shifts and lessons
Glossary of Terms – clear definitions so we’re all speaking the same language
Education Articles – deep dives on Risk Management and Market Structure
Education Sessions – recorded walkthroughs: system, TLMM, process building
Tools – my Trading Journal + TradingView scripts (21dma structure, ATR extensions)
The only piece still missing is the Discord Onboarding section — it’ll be added in the next few days. This project is for you — to help you understand the why, not just the what. Let me know what you think.
https://traderslab.gitbook.io/primetrading
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