Read the Radar, Pack the Jacket, Ride
I went out for a ride today, and it handed me another way to talk about something we deal with constantly as traders.
Before heading out, I checked the weather. Thirty percent chance of showers. That’s the kind of number that stops most people cold — just enough doubt to talk yourself out of moving, just enough uncertainty to default to the couch. Stay home. Skip the ride. Skip the work on my health. The “safe” choice.
But thirty percent isn’t a forecast of rain. It’s a forecast of uncertainty. So instead of reacting to the headline number, I pulled up the radar. No real cloud structure, nothing organized, nothing telling me this was going to break down on me. Then I did the one thing that actually changes the math — I packed a rain jacket. I assessed the conditions, I defined my downside, and I capped it. Worst case, I get a little wet and I ride home. Survivable. That’s a managed risk, not an open one.
So I went. I accepted the risk, and I rode the trend.
And here’s the part that made me smile. There were clouds everywhere. The whole sky looked like the exact thing I’d been warned about. If I’d been riding my emotions, every dark patch would’ve been a reason to turn back. But I never got caught in the rain — not once. The discomfort of riding under a gray sky was real. The actual cost of it was nothing.
That’s the trade.
Thirty percent chance of a shower is just another version of “the trend might be ending,” “we’re too extended,” “this has to be the top.” It feels like information. It isn’t. It’s uncertainty wearing the costume of a warning. And if you let it keep you on the sidelines, sure — you don’t get rained on. But you don’t get the ride either. No move, no progress, no compounding. You stay dry, and you stay still.
The skill was never about avoiding the risk. It’s reading the actual conditions instead of the headline number, capping your downside so the bad outcome can’t really hurt you, and then engaging anyway — clouds and all. That’s not recklessness. It’s the preparation that earns you the right to stay with the move when it gets uncomfortable.
Read the radar. Pack the jacket. Ride.
Because the trader waiting for a sky with no clouds never leaves the house.
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SITUATIONAL AWARENESS, GAMEPLAN, and TOP IDEAS 6/2
THE MARKET PICTURE (5-pillars checklist)
1. $QQQ Price Action — risk-on (extended)
Tape still in an uptrend above a rising 21dma-structure. $QQQE more than 4 ATRs from the 21ema and ~7 ATRs from the 10wma — that’s information, not a signal.
$QQQ closing at 746 with daily ATR%: 1.35. Character is digestion-then-push, not exhaustion.
2. Breadth Regime — mixed
MCSI flat and starting to show negative divergence vs. price — not picking up with the strong action.
MCO hooking down today. Holding above its 10dma but losing slope — this is the pillar I’m watching.
3. Internals — risk-on
Credit Spreads (SHY/HYG) compressing and VIX at 15.77 trending below 21dma-structure — both risk-on.
BTC the one drag, but three-on-three internals still risk-on read.
4. Liquid Leaders Action — risk-on
Semis sweeping the top of the RS board — Memory, Foundry, Analog, Equipment, Power Semis all stacked. Photonics/opticals reclaimed leadership today with real inflow on a flat-breadth tape — that’s the tell.
Setups clustering at rising 21dma-structure across the leadership board. Rotation, not exhaustion.
5. Portfolio & NER Feedback — risk-on
NER -0.65%, Open Heat -19.71%. Small NER open, comfortable carrying overnight.
Adds today ($TSLA, $BE) both off rising 21dma-structure with risk defined — book is being paid for taking known-risk spots, not chasing.
THE GAMEPLAN
Opportunity until proven otherwise, but I’m respecting the extension. Normally I’d want pullbacks to 21dma-structure and won’t trade extended/non-oversold tape — but this market isn’t giving that, and hasn’t been since the turn. You can’t sit out waiting for a pullback that doesn’t come. You play the hand you’re dealt, find the leader groups setting up, and take clean R/R when it shows up — that’s what $TSLA and $BE were today.
The make-or-break pillar is breadth — specifically MCO holding above its 10dma and MCSI repairing that flat-to-divergent profile. As long as liquid leaders keep reclaiming and rotating (photonics today is the cleanest example), the read stays constructive even with breadth dragging. Internals three-on-three, leaders doing the work — that’s the anchor.
Posture for the next few sessions: stay engaged but selective. Top merchandise at known-risk spots only — no chasing extension. Trim into strength where things are stretched on my book, let the core run as long as names hold above their rising 21dma-structure. Defense kicks in if MCO rolls below its 10dma and leaders start failing at structure together — that’s the regime flip. Until then, I let the trend pay me.
TOP IDEAS FOCUS LIST
These are the names I’m focused on at or near rising 21dma-structure — where risk is defined and the R/R earns the entry in an extended tape.
$MXL (245) — Semiconductors
$INTC (263) — Semiconductors
$RKLB (313) — Aerospace & Defense
$BKSY (672) — Hardware, Equipment & Parts
$Q (747) — Semiconductors
$EBAY (1403) — Specialty Retail
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Themes Lab — 6/2 🧪
Top-down map of 180+ themes ranked by RS — showing where the leadership lives and which names are coiling at the 21dma-structure area before the next leg.
LEADING THEMES (RS)
• Memory — RS 98 (#1)
• Foundry — RS 93 (#2)
• Analog Semiconductors — RS 92 (#3)
• Semiconductor Equipment — RS 91 (#4)
• Power Semiconductors — RS 89 (#5)
Semis sweeping the top 5 with Memory at +91% 3M and the whole hardware complex stacked above RS 89.
TOP SETUPS @ 21dma-structure area
• $TXN 98 — Analog Semiconductors
• $TTMI 98 — Electronics Mfg Services
• $RKLB 98 — Space Infrastructure
• $TSEM 99 — Foundry
• $MTSI 99 — RF Semiconductors
• $BKSY 94 — Earth Observation
• $NVDA 92 — AI Infrastructure
• $XPO 92 — Logistics
• $BE 95 — Hydrogen
• $VSAT 95 — Connectivity
THEMES SETTING UP (full breadth)
Watch the themes where the whole leadership board is coiling at the 21dma-structure area together — that’s where the cleanest follow-through tends to come from:
• AI Infrastructure — $NVDA, $AMBA setting up (2 of 5 leaders)
• Connectivity — $VSAT, $SATS setting up (2 of 5 leaders)
• Travel — $VIK, $LTH setting up (2 of 5 leaders)
TAKEAWAY
Semis are running the tape — Memory, Foundry, Analog, Equipment, and Power Semis all stacked at the top with broad constituent strength. Watch Foundry ($TSEM) and RF Semis ($MTSI) for the cleanest follow-through coils, with Space ($RKLB) and EMS ($TTMI) as the non-semi standouts.
By: @TradersLab_
LEADERS STALKLIST
Liquid Leaders Universe (top RS)
SNDK, MU, BE, WDC, PL, VSAT, STX, CIEN, SATS, DELL, AMD, NBIS, DOCN, BTSG, FLEX, VSH, LRCX, DDOG, RKLB, APLD, AA, FTNT, MKSI, STM, HBM, HPE, CRWD, RDW, TSEM, MT, GH, INTC, CSCO, TER, ARM, FROG, IRDM, TTMI, ALAB, CENX, LSCC, AMAT, PANW, ACMR, CNC, INOD, LUNR, SMTC, ATI, TECK, PENG, CRDO, ASML, BB, ILMN, BWA, NVT, COHR, ASTS, DAL, MRVL, OUST, TKR, RAL, KEEL, ORA, VIK, NOK, ST, CORZ, BKSY, NTAP, HUM, ON, KNX, DVA, NXT, KLAC, AAON, FPS, NVTS, LUMN, TIGO, AKAM, TWLO, MTSI, POWI, JBL, AVT, ROKU, SYNA, TWST, GLW, CROX, RMBS, QCOM, MGM, CGNX, IONQ, ODFL
Liquid Leaders Episodic Pivot (EP) sorted by Gap (Potential new Leader/Catalyst)
MRVL, HPE
Liquid Leaders 21dma-structure Pullback scan (LONG)
TSEM, TTMI, VIAV, MXL, AMKR, RKLB, MTSI, LUNR, ADI, VIK, NVTS, SOLS, CGNX, VRT, CMI, FN, KEYS, BKSY, ONTO, XPO, Q, ROKU, GM, MCHP, ENTG, LGN, CHRW, BURL, P, TSLA, AFRM, GPN, ZBRA, SNPS, W, HRB, RDDT, SPOT, ONON, ACN
REFERENCES
PT Wiki Is Now Live!!
After weeks of building, writing, editing, and organizing... I’ve finally wrapped up the Free PrimeTrading Wiki. This is the central place where I’ve documented my entire swing trading system — the mindset, process, setups, tools, and how I actually execute.
If you’ve ever wanted a full breakdown of how I approach the market day in and day out, this is it.
What’s Inside:
Alex's Swing Trading System – full framework, entries, sizing, market timing
TradersLab Scans – the exact filters I use to build my Focus List
Trading Psychology Reflections – key mindset shifts and lessons
Glossary of Terms – clear definitions so we’re all speaking the same language
Education Articles – deep dives on Risk Management and Market Structure
Education Sessions – recorded walkthroughs: system, TLMM, process building
Tools – my Trading Journal + TradingView scripts (21dma structure, ATR extensions)
The only piece still missing is the Discord Onboarding section — it’ll be added in the next few days. This project is for you — to help you understand the why, not just the what. Let me know what you think.
https://traderslab.gitbook.io/primetrading
I really hope that you enjoyed it. If you did, please share it & hit the LIKE button so that more folks can be reached and this Newsletter can grow. :)