NEW EDUCATION ARTICLE AVAILABLE IN GITBOOK!!
Portfolio-Level Risk Management
How I Size, Sequence, and Control Exposure Across a Cycle
Most traders track their accounts. Very few manage it. The difference is whether the picture in front of you is a snapshot or a system. A snapshot tells you how things look right now. A system tells you what you can do next, and what you should not.
This article is about the system I run at the portfolio level — the metrics I track, what each one actually answers, and how they shape decisions throughout the life of a trend.
https://traderslab.gitbook.io/primetrading/education-articles/portfolio-level-risk-management
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SITUATIONAL AWARENESS, GAMEPLAN, and TOP IDEAS [6/21]
THE MARKET PICTURE (5-pillars checklist)
1. $QQQ Price Action — risk-on
Price above rising 21dma-structure, Thursday daily reversal reconfirmed off the 21. Clean read on the tape.
Nothing overbought, nothing extended (ATR Dist 21ema 1.24, ATR Dist 10wma 2.46) — room either way.
2. Breadth Regime — risk-on
MCSI on LL Composite holding constructive, trying to curl back up after recent digestion — needs to hook above its 10dma to fully confirm.
MCO neutral, not moving much given the weak participation last week — keeping an eye on whether it expands as price extends.
3. Internals — risk-on
Credit Spreads (SHY/HYG) below declining 21dma-structure — clean.
VIX at 16.40, below declining 21dma-structure — also clean.
4. Liquid Leaders Action — risk-on
AI infrastructure adjacency setting up cleanest — GPU Cloud & HPC ($DOCN, $NTAP, $APLD), AI Servers ($DELL, $HPE, $HPQ), Electronics Mfg Services ($CLS, $JBL, $FLEX) all coiling at rising 21dma-structure.
Semis still anchoring the tape (Memory + Equipment both RS 86), Managed Care emerging as the non-tech rotation worth tracking.
5. Portfolio & NER Feedback — risk-on
Constructive day, PF feedback strong — nothing at risk, names pushing off the right side.
Action (6/17): NEW $SNOW / ADDED — / TRIMMED $BE / CLOSED —
NER -1.74%, NE Δ -0.70%, Open Heat -13.74%, UER 30.3% — book is mature, financed by core, off margin, exposure managed into the long weekend/OPEX.
THE GAMEPLAN
Trying hard not to overthink here. I took the exposure I wanted last week into the short-term oversold flush — that’s my spot, that’s where I engage. Now with the daily reversal reconfirmed and price above rising 21dma-structure, the path forward is simple: if momentum comes back in this week, I want to trim into strength, work my way off margin, and raise cash as we push toward new highs. Same story I always come back to.
The make-or-break pillar is MCSI — needs to hook up and reclaim its 10dma to confirm the breadth side of this re-acceleration. Until then I’m leaning on liquid leaders action and PF feedback as my real-time read. OPEX is behind us but the residual action this week is the unknown — could see some weird digestion before the trend reasserts.
If we get weakness instead, I’m ready to weather it — the book is built to. Nothing fragile, NER sub-2%, financed by mature core. No new initiations pressing here; patience until the market gives me adds in what I’m already holding. Defense only kicks in if internals or breadth flip — right now they’re not, so I stay engaged and let the tape do the work.
TOP IDEAS FOCUS LIST
Setups I focus on are the names sitting at or pulling back into rising 21dma-structure — that’s where the cleanest entries show up in this regime.
$APLD (196) — AI Infrastructure / GPU Cloud & HPC
$COHR (280) — Deep Tech / Photonic ICs
$FLEX (462) — Industrial Equipment & Services / Electronics Mfg Services
$FROG (561) — Developer & DevOps Tools / DevOps & CI/CD
$BWA (609) — Industrial Automation & Robotics / Auto Parts
$SNOW (982) — AI Infrastructure / Database & Data Platform
$CRWD (1138) — Defense & Security / Cybersecurity
$NTAP (1140) — AI Infrastructure / GPU Cloud & HPC
PORTFOLIO UPDATE 6/21
Hey guys, OPEX is behind us now. Created some weird action especially into the close, and we’ll need to see what Monday actually brings for the real reaction. But after yesterday’s FOMC reaction and weak close, today was probably an expectation breaker for a lot of people. We talked about the oversold condition yesterday even with that close — the probabilities pointed to a day like today, and we were positioned for it.
Market picture
QQQ confirmed the daily reversal off yesterday’s high. Solid confirmation, still below highs and not extended — clean read on the tape.
A bit of a weird picture underneath though: strong momentum but weak participation. High GDB, MCO not moving much for that reason, but big momo in select names. Could be OPEX related, worth flagging. Market internals all risk-on but still below declining 21dma-structure — that’s the piece that keeps me from getting carried away here.
LLs breadth / MCSI trying to curl up. Good strength today and knocking on new highs. PF feedback was very good — nothing at risk and a lot of names pushing off the right side.
So all in all, everything looks risk-on, action today was really really good.
On my book
Everything under control. The new layer is contained — NER sub -2% with NE Δ under -1%, exactly where I want it sitting. Risk is known and managed, no fresh exposure pressing limits.
UER is running a bit high but still under control — that’s the part I’m watching, not acting on. NE/CE well in range, book is mostly mature financed core doing the work. Nothing fragile, nothing at risk into the weekend. PF is at 12 names which is my max — no new trades allowed for me here, patience until the market gives me adds in what I’m already holding along the way.
Nothing got derisked into the close. The feedback was strong enough to carry through, and the metrics agreed.
Good luck guys ✌️
Today’s action
NEW: SNOW
ADDED:
TRIMMED: BE
OUT:
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Themes Lab — 6/21 🧪
Top-down read on where capital is rotating across 180+ themes. RS ranks the leaders, trophies flag the cleanest setups at the 21dma-structure area.
LEADING THEMES (RS)
• Memory — RS 86 (#1)
• Semiconductor Equipment — RS 86 (#2)
• Managed Care — RS 83 (#3)
• Analog Semiconductors — RS 77 (#4)
• Electronics Mfg Services — RS 78 (#5)
Semis still anchoring the tape with Memory and Equipment both at RS 86, while Managed Care emerges as the standout non-tech leader.
TOP SETUPS @ 21dma-structure area
• $DELL 100 RS — AI Servers & Hardware
• $ODFL 96 RS — Logistics
• $CLS 96 RS — Electronics Mfg Services
• $DOCN 98 RS — GPU Cloud & HPC
• $CNC 98 RS — Managed Care
• $STLD 98 RS — Advanced Materials
• $NTAP 97 RS — GPU Cloud & HPC
• $NUE 97 RS — Advanced Materials
• $LYV 84 RS — Entertainment (trophy carry)
• $SMTC 94 RS — Connectivity Semiconductors
THEMES SETTING UP (full breadth)
Watch the themes where the whole leadership board is coiling at the 21dma-structure area together — that’s where the cleanest follow-through tends to come from:
• Electronics Mfg Services — $CLS, $JBL, $FLEX all setting up (3 of 5 leaders)
• GPU Cloud & HPC — $DOCN, $NTAP, $APLD all setting up (3 of 5 leaders)
• AI Servers & Hardware — $HPE, $HPQ, $VRT all setting up (3 of 5 leaders)
• Advanced Materials — $STLD, $NUE all setting up (2 of 5 leaders)
• Managed Care — $CNC, $ELV all setting up (2 of 5 leaders)
• Logistics — $ODFL, $KNX all setting up (2 of 5 leaders)
TAKEAWAY
Semis remain the structural leadership, but the cleanest breadth setups are sitting in the AI infrastructure adjacency — GPU Cloud, AI Servers, and Electronics Mfg Services all coiling together. Managed Care is the non-tech rotation worth tracking.
LEADERS STALKLIST
Liquid Leaders Universe (top RS)
SNDK, WDC, MU, STX, ICHR, INTC, VSCO, UCTT, MKSI, TSEM, AEHR, TTMI, LRCX, TER, LITE, AMAT, GTX, NBIS, DOCN, COHU, CAT, FORM, ATI, ASML, STM, AMD, ALAB, VSH, ACMR, MRVL, ARM, TKR, ONTO, KLAC, AMKR, DELL, LSCC, VECO, APLD, VIK, ESI, ENTG, GLW, MXL, APH, POWI, COHR, CMI, ALGM, Q
Liquid Leaders 21dma-structure Pullback scan (LONG)
AEHR, DOCN, APLD, GLW, MXL, COHR, MTSI, SMTC, FLEX, VRT, ON, BWA, SOLS, MCHP, MGM, ST, JCI, AAON, NVTS, SNOW, HPE, BIRK, NXPI, QCOM, NTAP, JBL, DD, URBN
Liquid Leaders Episodic Pivot (EP) sorted by Gap (Potential new Leader/Catalyst)
None
REFERENCES
PT Wiki Is Now Live!!
After weeks of building, writing, editing, and organizing... I’ve finally wrapped up the Free PrimeTrading Wiki. This is the central place where I’ve documented my entire swing trading system — the mindset, process, setups, tools, and how I actually execute.
If you’ve ever wanted a full breakdown of how I approach the market day in and day out, this is it.
What’s Inside:
Alex's Swing Trading System – full framework, entries, sizing, market timing
TradersLab Scans – the exact filters I use to build my Focus List
Trading Psychology Reflections – key mindset shifts and lessons
Glossary of Terms – clear definitions so we’re all speaking the same language
Education Articles – deep dives on Risk Management and Market Structure
Education Sessions – recorded walkthroughs: system, TLMM, process building
Tools – my Trading Journal + TradingView scripts (21dma structure, ATR extensions)
The only piece still missing is the Discord Onboarding section — it’ll be added in the next few days. This project is for you — to help you understand the why, not just the what. Let me know what you think.
https://traderslab.gitbook.io/primetrading
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