The Timeframe Mismatch
One thing I’ve learned over the years is that a lot of trading behavior comes down to choices.
Being positive is a choice. Staying aligned with the longer-term trend is a choice. Focusing on what the market is doing instead of what you think it should do is a choice. Just like flipping bearish after two red days is a choice.
Now, if your timeframe is a few hours or a couple of days, that’s perfectly fine. Different styles exist for a reason. But if your goal is to participate in the multi-week and multi-month moves that can make a year, then you need a mindset that can survive normal pullbacks, rotations, and periods of uncertainty.
The tricky part is that sometimes those emotional flips will be right. Sometimes the market will roll over, the correction will become something bigger, and the traders who turned bearish after a few rough days will look smart. Those moments tend to stand out because they’re memorable.
What gets overlooked is the cost of making that same decision over and over again during the 90% of the time when a normal pullback is just that: a normal pullback within a healthy trend.
When you’re constantly reacting to every red day, scary headline, or uncomfortable pullback, you end up fighting the very trends you’re trying to capture. Exposure gets reduced when it feels uncomfortable, only to be added back when things feel comfortable again.
The market rarely rewards comfort.
The irony is that the biggest moves often feel the hardest to hold. If they were easy, everyone would capture them. Most traders say they want the multi-week and multi-month trend, but many abandon the position the moment the market stops going straight up.
That’s why I try to spend less time predicting and more time observing. As long as the evidence remains constructive, my job is to stay aligned with it. When the evidence changes, I’ll change with it.
Until then, I don’t see much value in turning every pullback into a new bear market thesis.
Sometimes the biggest edge is simply having the discipline to stay with a trend longer than most people are emotionally capable of. That’s where a lot of the real money is made. 🐼📈
PrimeTrading is an equity SWING trading community to learn & trade alongside experienced traders. It's like sneaking into a trader's POD, where you can see us execute & discuss...but in ours, you can also interact and ask questions.
I would have killed for such an opportunity when I started trading! 🔥
Education & mentoring from Alex & experienced traders.
See how I execute intraday while I share all my trades with explanations live.
Alex's daily market commentary, Portfolio updates, trade explanations, and daily FocusList.
Share & Discuss potential trade ideas with an amazing, like-minded community.
Talk Sectors, Macro Economy, Cryptocurrencies & much more!
Talk about mental game & psychology to evolve as a trader!
Early Market Sessions and Q&A 5x week.
Trade & learn with us, from Novice to Expert!
Cheers, Alex 🛡️✌️
⬇️ JOIN THE DISCORD COMMUNITY! - 39$/m ⬇️
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS, GAMEPLAN, and TOP IDEAS 6/24
THE MARKET PICTURE (5-pillars checklist)
1. QQQE 0.00%↑ Price Action — mixed
$QQQE pulled right into the rising 21dma-structure and held the 21ema — clean backtest, not a break. ATR Dist 21ema -0.57, room to work.
Character is digestion at structure, not damage. The bar I want to see tomorrow is continuation, not just a gap.
2. Breadth Regime — risk-off
MCSI at -0.68, below a declining 10dma — still in negative divergence, no hook yet.
MCO back to -0.86, washed out on the OS side. ST breadth is on the hook-up, that’s the piece that has to turn first.
3. Internals — mixed
Credit spreads (SHY/HYG) still below a declining 21dma-structure — the one pillar not on board. This is the missing piece.
VIX behaving, no risk-off signal there.
4. Liquid Leaders Action — risk-on
LLs still above their own rising 21dma-structure and digesting. Semis dominating the tape — Memory, Equipment, Foundry all clustered at RS 86.
MU after the close looks like it’s sparking AI-trade buying overnight. Reclaim and backtest setups stacking at rising 21dma-structure across the leadership board.
5. Portfolio & NER Feedback — mixed
Setup-into-discomfort day — bought the support, the breadth oversold, the internals holding. Ingredients day, not a thrust day.
Action: NEW $VRT / ADDED — / TRIMMED — / CLOSED —
Book is hot on the guardrails — FER and NE/CE elevated, on margin into the close. NE Δ is sliding, which is the honest read on a day where I leaned into the spot. That’s the price of being positioned ahead of the move, not after it.
THE GAMEPLAN
Ingredients were there today, follow-through is tomorrow’s question. Price into support, breadth oversold, internals holding, MU as the potential catalyst. I leaned into the discomfort because the structural setup was there and I wanted to be positioned ahead of a potential thrust, not chasing after it. The big $VRT entry was the cleanest expression — exact 21dma-structure backtest, right-side entry, not a chase.
The make-or-break pillar is credit spreads — SHY/HYG still below a declining 21dma-structure. That’s the piece still missing. Tomorrow I want continuation confirmed AND credit spreads rejecting structure. Until then, it’s a setup, not a thrust. The MCSI hook above its 10dma is the breadth confirmation I’m watching alongside it.
With MU sparking AI trades overnight and semis likely gapping up across the board, my job tomorrow is not to chase. Book is where I want it — the lean was made today, now I trim into strength and slowly come off margin over the next few sessions. A lot of names in the Focus List aren’t actionable on a gap — TSEM, the semi complex, likely extended off the open. The setups I respect are reclaim-and-backtest at rising 21dma-structure, not gap-chases. If we get rejected here and breadth doesn’t thrust, I cut back into the open — that’s the deal I made with myself taking the book up to where it is.
TOP IDEAS FOCUS LIST
Where I focus: reclaim and backtest setups at rising 21dma-structure — not gap-chases off the open.
$TSEM (92) — Semiconductors / Foundry
$FORM (130) — Semiconductor Equipment
$ONTO (223) — Semiconductor Equipment
$COHR (325) — Photonic ICs / Deep Tech
$MRVL (383) — AI Infrastructure / Semis
$CRDO (712) — Connectivity Semiconductors
$LLY (785) — GLP-1 / Obesity
$SANM (1009) — Electronics Mfg Services
$HPE (1107) — AI Servers & Hardware
$SNOW (1346) — Database & Data Platform
$CRWD (1362) — Cybersecurity
$NTAP (1670) — GPU Cloud & HPC
PORTFOLIO UPDATE 6/24
Hey guys, the setup was there today and it was a real one — price into support, breadth oversold, internals holding. The question wasn’t whether the spot was there, it was what kind of trader you wanted to be at it.
Market picture
QQQE pulled right into the rising 21dma-structure and held the 21ema, with breadth washed out — MCO at -1.35σ, stocks above 5dma down to 22% (OS). LLs still above their own rising 21dma-structure and digesting, ST breadth on the OS hook-up. Five-pillars-wise, price in support, breadth oversold, internals at risk but holding right at declining 21dma-structure. The one not on board — credit spreads, SHY/HYG still below declining 21dma-structure. That’s the piece still missing.
So all in all, the ingredients were there for a make-or-break, and MU after the close looks like it’s sparking some buying in the AI trades. But ingredients aren’t follow-through. Tomorrow I want to see continuation confirmed AND credit spreads rejecting structure. Until then, it’s a setup, not a thrust.
Two ways to play it from here — you wait for the confirmation gap-up and accept that the leaders will already be extended off lows, or you buy into the discomfort, into the oversold, into the support, and trust your process. I leaned into the second today because the structural setup was there and I wanted to be positioned ahead of a potential catalyst, not chasing after it.
On my book
Book is running hot on the guardrails and I want to be straight about that — FER and NE/CE are both elevated, and we’re on margin into the close. That’s not a number that fell out of nowhere, it’s a judgment call. The setup gave me a real spot, I’m overweight leaders that were lined up at structure, and MU was a known catalyst into the close. I made the choice to lean into that.
The fresh layer isn’t being paid yet — NE Δ is sliding, which is the honest read on a day you bought into discomfort. That’s the price of getting positioned ahead of the move instead of after it. Tomorrow tells me whether the lean was earned. If MU + continuation deliver and credit spreads finally crack structure, the book is in the right spot. If we get rejected here and breadth doesn’t thrust, I’ll be cutting back into the open — that’s the deal I made with myself taking the book up to where it is.
The big VRT entry today was the cleanest expression of the thesis — been talking about it since last week, was waiting for that exact 21dma-structure backtest, and the spot came. That’s a right-side entry, not a chase.
Good luck guys ✌️
Today’s action
NEW: VRT
ADDED:
TRIMMED:
OUT:
Try TradersLab.io — the full workflow behind how I trade.
Everything starts with the market, then internals, then sectors and groups, down to screeners to find the best Liquid Leaders, watchlists, and ultimately the Focus List. That entire process is built into one platform.
It’s the same framework I use every day, just structured so you can go from top-down analysis to actionable ideas in minutes, without jumping between tools.
Built for swing and position traders who want clarity, not noise.
⬇️ GET TRADERSLAB FOR ONLY 29$/m ⬇️
Try it for 1 month FREE with the code “TRIAL”.
Themes Lab — 6/24 🧪
Top-down map of 180+ themes ranked by RS, surfacing where leadership lives and which names are coiling at the 21dma-structure area.
LEADING THEMES (RS)
Memory — RS 86 (#1)
Semiconductor Equipment — RS 86 (#2)
Foundry — RS 86 (#3)
Analog Semiconductors — RS 71 (#4)
Managed Care — RS — (#5)
Semis dominating the tape with Memory, Equipment, and Foundry all clustered at RS 86, broad coils across the full leadership board.
TOP SETUPS @ 21dma-structure area
$SNDK 100 — Memory
$STX 100 — Memory
$WDC 100 — Memory
$ASML 100 — Semiconductor Equipment
$ALAB 99 — Connectivity Semiconductors
$CRDO 99 — Connectivity Semiconductors
$LRCX 99 — Semiconductor Equipment
$ONTO 99 — Semiconductor Equipment
$MRVL 98 — AI Infrastructure
$NBIS 99 — GPU Cloud & HPC
THEMES SETTING UP (full breadth)
Watch the themes where the whole leadership board is coiling at the 21dma-structure area together — that’s where the cleanest follow-through tends to come from:
• Memory — $SNDK, $STX, $MU, $WDC all setting up (4 of 4 leaders)
• Semiconductor Equipment — $ASML, $AMAT, $LRCX, $ONTO all setting up (4 of 5 leaders)
• Analog Semiconductors — $ARM, $AMKR setting up (2 of 5 leaders)
• Connectivity Semiconductors — $ALAB, $CRDO, $SMTC setting up (3 of 4 leaders)
• AI Infrastructure — $MRVL, $AMD setting up (2 of 2 leaders)
• Power Semiconductors — $ALGM, $POWI setting up (2 of 4 leaders)
• Electronics Mfg Services — $JBL, $FLEX, $SANM setting up (3 of 5 leaders)
TAKEAWAY
Semiconductor leadership is broadening — Memory, Equipment, Foundry, and Connectivity all coiling together at the 21dma-structure area. AI Infrastructure adjacency ($MRVL, $NBIS) is the cleanest rotation tag to watch off this base.
By: @TradersLab_
LEADERS STALKLIST
Liquid Leaders Universe (top RS)
SNDK, WDC, MU, STX, ICHR, INTC, VSCO, UCTT, MKSI, TSEM, AEHR, TTMI, LRCX, TER, LITE, AMAT, GTX, NBIS, DOCN, COHU, CAT, FORM, ATI, ASML, STM, AMD, ALAB, VSH, ACMR, MRVL, ARM, TKR, ONTO, KLAC, AMKR, DELL, LSCC, VECO, APLD, VIK, ESI, ENTG, GLW, MXL, APH, POWI, COHR, CMI, ALGM, Q
Liquid Leaders 21dma-structure Pullback scan (LONG)
SNDK, WDC, STX, ICHR, TSEM, TER, LRCX, FORM, UCTT, NBIS, AMD, ONTO, COHR, MRVL, TKR, AMKR, FLEX, KLAC, LSCC, CMI, SMTC, ASML, SOLS, VECO, MTSI, CRDO, GFS, MGM, ALGM, MTZ, POWI, H, ARM, SANM, Q, HPE, JBL, TKO
Liquid Leaders Episodic Pivot (EP) sorted by Gap (Potential new Leader/Catalyst)
None
REFERENCES
PT Wiki Is Now Live!!
After weeks of building, writing, editing, and organizing... I’ve finally wrapped up the Free PrimeTrading Wiki. This is the central place where I’ve documented my entire swing trading system — the mindset, process, setups, tools, and how I actually execute.
If you’ve ever wanted a full breakdown of how I approach the market day in and day out, this is it.
What’s Inside:
Alex's Swing Trading System – full framework, entries, sizing, market timing
TradersLab Scans – the exact filters I use to build my Focus List
Trading Psychology Reflections – key mindset shifts and lessons
Glossary of Terms – clear definitions so we’re all speaking the same language
Education Articles – deep dives on Risk Management and Market Structure
Education Sessions – recorded walkthroughs: system, TLMM, process building
Tools – my Trading Journal + TradingView scripts (21dma structure, ATR extensions)
The only piece still missing is the Discord Onboarding section — it’ll be added in the next few days. This project is for you — to help you understand the why, not just the what. Let me know what you think.
https://traderslab.gitbook.io/primetrading
I really hope that you enjoyed it. If you did, please share it & hit the LIKE button so that more folks can be reached and this Newsletter can grow. :)
Alex, excellent post. I commend you on your hard work, and your disciplined and systematic approach to trading. I can't say I always share your level of risk tolerance, but I respect it. Enjoy riding the gap up today.