The Timeframe Mismatch
One thing I’ve learned over the years is that a lot of trading behavior comes down to choices.
Being positive is a choice. Staying aligned with the longer-term trend is a choice. Focusing on what the market is doing instead of what you think it should do is a choice. Just like flipping bearish after two red days is a choice.
Now, if your timeframe is a few hours or a couple of days, that’s perfectly fine. Different styles exist for a reason. But if your goal is to participate in the multi-week and multi-month moves that can make a year, then you need a mindset that can survive normal pullbacks, rotations, and periods of uncertainty.
The tricky part is that sometimes those emotional flips will be right. Sometimes the market will roll over, the correction will become something bigger, and the traders who turned bearish after a few rough days will look smart. Those moments tend to stand out because they’re memorable.
What gets overlooked is the cost of making that same decision over and over again during the 90% of the time when a normal pullback is just that: a normal pullback within a healthy trend.
When you’re constantly reacting to every red day, scary headline, or uncomfortable pullback, you end up fighting the very trends you’re trying to capture. Exposure gets reduced when it feels uncomfortable, only to be added back when things feel comfortable again.
The market rarely rewards comfort.
The irony is that the biggest moves often feel the hardest to hold. If they were easy, everyone would capture them. Most traders say they want the multi-week and multi-month trend, but many abandon the position the moment the market stops going straight up.
That’s why I try to spend less time predicting and more time observing. As long as the evidence remains constructive, my job is to stay aligned with it. When the evidence changes, I’ll change with it.
Until then, I don’t see much value in turning every pullback into a new bear market thesis.
Sometimes the biggest edge is simply having the discipline to stay with a trend longer than most people are emotionally capable of. That’s where a lot of the real money is made. 🐼📈
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SITUATIONAL AWARENESS, GAMEPLAN, and TOP IDEAS 6/25
THE MARKET PICTURE (5-pillars checklist)
1. QQQE 0.00%↑ Price Action — risk-on
$QQQE still above rising 21dma-structure, ATR Dist 21ema at 0.30 — not extended, sitting right on structure
Reversal pivot got rejected today, tape faded into the close but everything still inside the chop range — no new info vs. yesterday
2. Breadth Regime — mixed
MCSI on the LL Composite back in uptrend, above rising 10dma — that’s the constructive read under the hood
MCO is OS with breadth expansion up — positive GDB on the LLs, stocks reclaiming 5dma even as the surface looked ugly
3. Internals — risk-on
Credit spreads closed nicely red, rejecting structure — this is the one I’m watching closest. As long as SHY/HYG stays capped under its declining 21dma, no underneath red flag forcing me to IRA cash
VIX at 19, still inside its 21dma-structure, no spike
4. Liquid Leaders Action — risk-on
Semis are the tape — Memory, Equipment, Foundry, Analog, Power, Connectivity all coiling at 21dma-structure in unison. AI Infrastructure + AI Servers the cleanest non-semis adjacency setting up
LLs holding and basing at their rising 21dma is what’s keeping me glass-half-full. GDB at +80th on the LL Comp confirms it
5. Portfolio & NER Feedback — risk-on
Fading/basing day inside still-intact structure — classic summer chop
Action: NEW $OUST / ADDED none / TRIMMED $VRT / CLOSED none
NER at 2% — that’s my target into a continuation setup. UER clean, NE Δ in a spot I can live with. FER elevated — that’s the one read I’m watching. Names sitting closer to stops than I’d love after this fade
THE GAMEPLAN
Less is more here. I’m at my 2% NER target into a continuation setup, so I’m not adding new exposure risk. The plan is to do less, not more. If something in the book derisks itself, I might recycle that capital into a new position the way I did with $VRT and $OUST today — but I’m not pressing fresh ideas on top of what’s already on.
The make-or-break pillar is credit spreads. As long as SHY/HYG stays capped under its declining 21dma-structure, there’s no underneath red flag forcing me to defense. MCSI back above its rising 10dma on the LLs is the second confirmation I’m leaning on — the surface looked tired today but under the hood the leaders are doing their job, basing at structure.
If red flags appear — credit spreads spike above structure, fragile names in my book break their 21dma-structure and trigger stops, LLs break down in unison — then my job flips: protect capital, protect the year, reduce exposure, raise cash, play defense. If the market keeps chopping and basing, my job is to be patient. That’s it. No big moves unless the tape forces my hand. Trim into strength, try to add into weakness on leaders still working, let structure do the work.
TOP IDEAS FOCUS LIST
These are the names I’m watching for pullbacks into rising 21dma-structure — buying close to structure, not chasing.
$MXL (16) — Connectivity Semiconductors
$SNOW (82) — Database & Data Platform
$NTAP (22) — GPU Cloud & HPC
$TSEM (88) — Foundry
$NBIS (96) — GPU Cloud & HPC
$MRVL (98) — AI Infrastructure / Semis
$OUST (44) — Optical Components
$CRWD (2) — Cybersecurity
$DELL (98) — AI Servers & Hardware
$SANM (4) — Electronics Mfg Services
PORTFOLIO UPDATE 6/25
Hey guys,
Wild tape again today — fade into the close, plenty of weakness on the screen, but at the end of the day everything is still holding structure. Classic summer chop.
Market picture
QQQ and QQQE still > rising 21dma-structure. Initial rejection of the reversal pivot today — tape wasn’t ready, no new info gained vs yesterday. Internals refused to spike above structure, so we’re back inside the chop range.
Breadth still sucks on the surface but MCO is oversold with breadth ext actually up — positive GDB, stocks reclaiming their 5dma. LLs had a good day under the hood: GDB at +80th, MCSI back in uptrend above rising 10dma, breadth expansion. Credit spreads closed nicely red, rejecting structure — that’s the one I’m watching closest. As long as SHY/HYG stays capped under that level, there’s no underneath red flag forcing me to IRA cash.
So all in all, this is fading/basing action inside a still-intact structure. Can it lead to a top? Sure. Can it also be the right side building before continuation? Also yes. The LLs holding and basing at their rising 21dma is what’s keeping me on the glass-half-full side until proven otherwise.
On my book
No exposure adjustments at the close. VRT got derisked, OUST opened with cushion, FLEX gave me nice cushion on the NER too. The new layer is contained and starting to get paid — not the biggest cushion, but enough that I don’t need to force anything.
Book is mature, UER is clean, NE Δ is in a spot I can live with. FER is elevated though — that’s the one read I’m watching. A lot of names are sitting closer to their stops than I’d love after this fade, so if credit spreads break and the tape keeps fading, that number forces my hand. For now, structure is holding and the LLs are doing their job, so I’m staying patient on margin rather than cutting into weakness.
If you already have exposure, this is the spot to be patient — trim into strength, try to add into weakness right into structure on the leaders that are still working. There are some out there, but it’s definitely harder to position. Less is more. Enjoy the summer. If you have cushion, let structure do the work.
Good luck guys ✌️
Today’s action
NEW: OUST
ADDED:
TRIMMED: VRT
OUT:
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Themes Lab — 6/25 🧪
Top-down read of where capital is rotating across 180+ themes — RS leadership first, individual setups second.
LEADING THEMES (RS)
• Memory — RS 99.7 (#1)
• Semiconductor Equipment — RS 98.6 (#2)
• Foundry — RS 97 (#3)
• Analog Semiconductors — RS 93 (#4)
• Managed Care — RS 92 (#5)
Semis dominating the tape at +88% 3M, with Foundry and Memory both above RS 86 on broad setup coils — Managed Care emerging as the rotation pocket outside the complex.
TOP SETUPS @ 21dma-structure area
• $SNDK 100 — Memory
• $STX 100 — Memory
• $MU 100 — Memory
• $WDC 100 — Memory
• $ASML 100 — Semiconductor Equipment
• $AMAT 100 — Semiconductor Equipment
• $LRCX 99 — Semiconductor Equipment
• $MRVL 99 — AI Infrastructure
• $ALAB 99 — Connectivity Semiconductors
• $CRDO 99 — Connectivity Semiconductors
THEMES SETTING UP (full breadth)
Watch the themes where the whole leadership board is coiling at the 21dma-structure area together — that’s where the cleanest follow-through tends to come from:
• Memory — $SNDK, $STX, $MU, $WDC all setting up (4 of 5 leaders)
• Semiconductor Equipment — $ASML, $AMAT, $LRCX, $MKSI, $ONTO all setting up (5 of 5 leaders)
• Analog Semiconductors — $ARM, $AMKR, $VSH, $ADI all setting up (4 of 5 leaders)
• Connectivity Semiconductors — $ALAB, $CRDO, $SMTC, $MXL all setting up (4 of 5 leaders)
• Power Semiconductors — $STM, $ALGM, $POWI, $ON all setting up (4 of 5 leaders)
• AI Infrastructure — $MRVL, $AMD all setting up (2 of 2 leaders)
• AI Servers & Hardware — $DELL, $HPE, $ANET all setting up (3 of 5 leaders)
TAKEAWAY
Semiconductor complex is the tape — Memory, Equipment, Foundry, Analog, Power, and Connectivity all coiling in unison at the 21dma-structure area. AI Infrastructure and AI Servers adjacency is the cleanest non-semis rotation to watch for follow-through.
LEADERS STALKLIST
Liquid Leaders Universe (top RS)
SNDK, WDC, MU, STX, ICHR, INTC, VSCO, UCTT, MKSI, TSEM, AEHR, TTMI, LRCX, TER, LITE, AMAT, GTX, NBIS, DOCN, COHU, CAT, FORM, ATI, ASML, STM, AMD, ALAB, VSH, ACMR, MRVL, ARM, TKR, ONTO, KLAC, AMKR, DELL, LSCC, VECO, APLD, VIK, ESI, ENTG, GLW, MXL, APH, POWI, COHR, CMI, ALGM, Q
Liquid Leaders 21dma-structure Pullback scan (LONG)
FORM, TSEM, MXL, AMD, STM, NBIS, ASML, COHR, DELL, MRVL, VSH, AMKR, VIAV, VECO, MTSI, SMTC, GFS, AVT, LSCC, SOLS, JBHT, POWI, FDX, KNX, FRO, VRT, JCI, TXN, ADI, SANM, H, ON, NUE, MGM, ANET, OUST, JBL, HPE, TKO
Liquid Leaders Episodic Pivot (EP) sorted by Gap (Potential new Leader/Catalyst)
None
REFERENCES
PT Wiki Is Now Live!!
After weeks of building, writing, editing, and organizing... I’ve finally wrapped up the Free PrimeTrading Wiki. This is the central place where I’ve documented my entire swing trading system — the mindset, process, setups, tools, and how I actually execute.
If you’ve ever wanted a full breakdown of how I approach the market day in and day out, this is it.
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Alex's Swing Trading System – full framework, entries, sizing, market timing
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