📅 Tomorrow’s Key Events
A busy macro day ahead with a few potential market-moving catalysts:
🛒 8:30 AM ET — CPI Inflation Report
The biggest event of the day. Inflation data will heavily influence Treasury yields, Fed expectations, and overall market sentiment.
🏦 Bank Earnings Kick Off
Major banks begin Q2 earnings season, giving us the first look at how corporate earnings are shaping up.
🎙️ Fed Chair Testimony
Markets will be listening closely for any comments on inflation, interest rates, and the path of monetary policy.
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Macro Regime (weekly - 7/12)
Tailwind holds. Risk appetite and policy carrying the load.
Where we stand
• Regime score: 61, tailwind
• History: 86th percentile — stronger than most days over the last five years
• Lead engine: Risk Appetite (82, strong)
• Drag engine: Inflation (42, soft) — soft here means cooling, which supports the regime
What’s driving it
• Risk Appetite doing the heavy lifting: VIX down 24% over 21 days to 15.03, QQQ/SPY and SMH/SPY both supportive. Fear is drained and tech is leading.
• Policy strong at 81: 2s10s curve steepened +88 bps, a signal the rate path is cooperating with risk assets.
• Growth improving at 68 with IWM/SPY and Industrials/SPY firming — leadership is broadening beyond mega-cap.
• Liquidity the soft spot at 46: 10Y at 4.57% (+4 bps) and DXY +1.4% are the pressure points. Not breaking, but thin.
Positioning read
• Regime favors cyclical tilt and beta over defensives, with policy tailwind supporting duration-sensitive risk.
• Argues against crowding into pure momentum — Growth/Value down 2% says leadership is rotating, not narrowing.
• Breadth percentile at 42% is the caveat: internals are constructive but not confirming the tape.
Watch next
• Liquidity subscore at 46. A DXY break higher or 10Y through 4.75% would tighten conditions and put the tailwind at risk; a rollover in either would clear the last obstacle.
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS, GAMEPLAN, and TOP IDEAS 7/13
THE MARKET PICTURE (5-pillars checklist)
1. $QQQE Price Action — still constructive, but softening
QQQE above rising 21dma-structure. ATR Dist 21ema -0.25, 10wma +0.38. Not extended.
QQQ lost 21dma-structure today. Split index picture — QQQE the one holding.
2. Breadth Regime (Nasdaq MCSI / MCO) — leaning risk-off
MCSI -0.73, below 10dma (-0.82). Rolling, trending lower since May.
MCO 0.20. No thrust either way. Quiet.
3. Internals — tipping point
Credit Spreads printed a HL, spiked ABOVE 21dma-structure intraday. Closed back inside. In structure but flashing.
VIX 17.16, spiked right into declining 21dma-structure, closed inside it. Need to monitor.
4. Liquid Leaders Action — cracking
LL Composite MCSI 0.75, MCSI ▼ below flat 10dma (1.07). MCO -1.32, deep oversold. Breadth of leaders rolling.
LL price -2.27% today. Backtesting rising 21dma-structure. Rotation is real — semis/AI sliding, healthcare/software/cyber taking the baton.
5. Portfolio & NER Feedback — defensive tightening day
Stress-test day. Got hit on CRDO, ALAB, APP. Cut HWM at close to bring exposure in line with what CS and QQQ are telling me.
Action: NEW: $LLY / ADDED: $CRWD, $HIMS, $TWST / TRIMMED: none / CLOSED: $APP, $ALAB, $CRDO, $HWM
NE∆ sliding to -2%, NER pressing the ceiling. Book green — NE/CE 3x, UER >60%. Fresh layer isn’t getting paid. Traction just isn’t there in the semis/AI names.
THE GAMEPLAN
We’re at a tipping point and the tape is telling me to lean the way I’m already leaning. QQQ lost 21dma-structure. Credit Spreads printed a HL and poked above their 21dma-structure intraday before closing back in. VIX tagged declining 21dma-structure and closed inside. None of those are broken yet. All three are one session from being broken.
The make-or-break pillar is internals. If Credit Spreads and VIX both close above 21dma-structure tomorrow while QQQ/SPY/IWM lose structure across the board, that’s a real raising-cash event and I’ll act on it fast. Until then, I’m not front-running the break — MCSI is still above its 10dma, QQQE still holding, the LL structure is being backtested not broken. Big difference.
Where I’m engaged: outside tech and AI. Software, healthcare, GLP-1s, cyber, genomics. That’s where the fresh layer went today. Semis and AI-adjacent are off the book. Not a market call — a leadership call. I’m following what’s leading, right or wrong. If the broadening rotation is real, this is exactly where I want to be. If internals crack, I’ll cut exposure regardless of where the leadership sits.
TOP IDEAS FOCUS LIST
Where I’m hunting — leaders sitting on or backtesting rising 21dma-structure. Not chasing.
$LLY (100) — GLP-1 / Obesity
$CRWD (99) — Cybersecurity
$PANW (99) — Cybersecurity
$FROG (97) — DevOps & CI/CD
$LNTH (96) — Diagnostics
$TWST (95) — Genomics
$HIMS (82) — GLP-1 / Obesity
$BRKR (82) — Life Sciences Tools
$BB (81) — AI Platform
PORTFOLIO UPDATE 7/13
Hey guys, took some hits today on CRDO, ALAB, and APP. Knew tech was lagging but had a handful of names still holding structure, so I was focused there. Looks like the whole AI/semis trade is sliding intact now — and it’s dragging the rest of tech with it.
Market picture
QQQ lost 21dma-structure today. SPY still hanging on, backtesting DTL and rising 21dma-structure. Split index picture.
VIX spiked right into declining 21dma-structure. Closed inside it, but need to monitor. Bigger flag — Credit Spreads printed a HL and spiked ABOVE 21dma-structure intraday. Closed back inside. Still in structure, but at the tipping point.
QQQE still above rising 21dma. MCSI in uptrend above flat 10dma. Internals not broken yet.
So all in all — we’re at a tipping point. If internals spike tomorrow and QQQ/SPY/IWM break structure, that’s a big raising cash event across the board. Until then, I’m focused on what’s leading outside tech and AI — software, healthcare, GLP-1s, select pockets still setting up. Removed semis and AI-adjacent from the book. Following what’s leading, right or wrong.
On my book
Fresh layer isn’t getting paid. NE Δ sliding to −2%, NER pressing the ceiling, and after being stopped on APP/ALAB/CRDO the traction just isn’t there. Cut HWM at close to bring exposure in line with what CS spiking and QQQ losing structure are telling me.
Book is green — NE/CE at 3x, UER >60%.
Not a market call. Managing risk into a tape that’s flashing early warnings, while still engaging where leadership is emerging.
Good luck guys ✌️
Today’s action
NEW: LLY
ADDED: CRWD, HIMS, TWST
TRIMMED:
OUT: APP, ALAB, CRDO, HWM
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Themes Lab — 7/13 🧪
Top-down map of where RS leadership lives, where it’s cracking, and where rotation is building — before drilling into names.
LEADING THEMES (RS)
• Managed Care — RS 77 (#1)
• Genomics — RS 76 (#2)
• Cybersecurity — RS 74 (#3)
• Connectivity Semiconductors — RS 71 (#4)
• CRO + AI — RS 71 (#5)
Healthcare rotation running the tape — Managed Care, Genomics, CRO+AI and Diagnostics all riding rising trajectories, with Cybersecurity holding leadership on the tech side.
COOLING AT THE TOP
High-RS themes losing trajectory — leadership showing cracks, watch for failed setups (any trophies inside these themes are excluded from TOP SETUPS below for this reason):
• Foundry — RS 68 (Breaking Down), key names losing structure: $INTC, $TSEM
• CDN & Edge Computing — RS 68 (Breaking Down), key names losing structure: $NET, $AKAM
• Connectivity Semiconductors — RS 71 (Fading), key names losing structure: $ALAB, $MXL
TOP SETUPS @ 21dma-structure area
• $LLY 98 — GLP-1 / Obesity [Leading]
• $CRWD 98 — Cybersecurity [Leading]
• $TWST 96 — Genomics [Leading]
• $FROG 96 — DevOps & CI/CD [Leading]
• $AFRM 93 — Payments Infrastructure [Emerging]
• $BRKR 88 — Life Sciences Tools [Emerging]
• $LNTH 84 — Diagnostics [Leading]
• $CART 82 — Ad Measurement & Verification [Emerging]
• $DT 80 — Database & Data Platform [Leading]
• $THC 43 — Hospitals + Health Systems [Emerging]
THEMES SETTING UP (full breadth)
Watch the themes where the whole leadership board is coiling at the 21dma-structure area together — that’s where the cleanest follow-through tends to come from:
• GLP-1 / Obesity — $LLY, $HIMS both setting up (2 of 2 leaders)
• AI Servers & Hardware — $DELL, $PENG, $HPE all setting up (3 of 5 leaders)
TAKEAWAY
Healthcare is the cleanest leadership story — Managed Care, Genomics, GLP-1 and CRO+AI all setting up with rising trajectories. Foundry and CDN cracking hard despite high rank; rotation building fastest in Life Sciences Tools and Payments Infrastructure.
LEADERS STALKLIST
Liquid Leaders Universe (top RS)
SNDK, BTSG, MU, WDC, HNGE, VSCO, BAND, CNC, GH, ICHR, BE, TXG, HUM, RSI, MOH, AMD, STX, TIGO, DELL, OSCR, LTH, FTNT, ILMN, EAT, MXL, TWST, ETSY, CIEN, NAVN, RELY, TENB, PENG, DDOG, CAKE, FROG, NTRA, SN, LNTH, INTC, SNOW, TSEM, PANW, MKSI, NET, XYZ, OKTA, VSAT, ANET, TWLO, LLY, ABNB, BIIB, ATI, AMAT, MTCH, BRKR, IRDM, BB, STM, CRWD, ACMR, VIK, ONTO, UCTT, ALAB, CAT, NBIS, KLIC, WULF, HWM, RVTY, ODFL, TT, LRCX, COMP, OMC, LSCC, S, TXN, ASML, CART, FORM, RBRK, TTWO, DOCN, DAL, VRT, VIAV, AFRM, TER, AVT, EXPE, RAL, GLW, FRO, DBX, NVT, CRDO, FDX, XPO
Liquid Leaders 21dma-structure Pullback scan (LONG)
VSCO, AMD, DELL, TWST, PENG, FROG, LNTH, LLY, ABNB, BIIB, MTCH, BRKR, BB, CRWD, HWM, RVTY, TT, COMP, TTWO, AFRM, EXPE, XPO, BROS, ZETA, NTAP, ALGN, HPE, TDC, GEN, DT, MDLN, HIMS, AXON
Liquid Leaders Episodic Pivot (EP) sorted by Gap (Potential new Leader/Catalyst)
None
REFERENCES
PT Wiki Is Now Live!!
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