Off the desk for three weeks
I’m taking three weeks off starting next week. No daily Prime Report and no pre-market EMS during that stretch. If I put on any trades, I’ll post them in Discord, but I won’t be at the screens the way I usually am.
Recharging a couple of times a year matters — for judgment, for patience, for the long game. The market rewards people who can sit on their hands as much as those who can pull the trigger, and that’s easier to remember after some time away from the chart.
Hope you all get some of the same. Enjoy the summer. I’ll be back with a report on Sunday, August 9th, and back to the normal schedule in the community on Monday morning.
📅 Tomorrow’s Key Events
A packed macro + earnings day, with wholesale inflation and the Beige Book bookending the session:
🛒 8:30 AM ET — June PPI
Wholesale inflation print, arriving one day after CPI. Consensus: headline -0.1% m/m (6.2% y/y, down from 6.5%), core +0.4% m/m (5.2% y/y, up from 4.9%). A hot core reading would extend today’s rate-path repricing.
🏭 8:30 AM ET — Empire State Manufacturing (July)
First regional Fed manufacturing survey of the month. Consensus 8.6 vs 5.7 prior. Watch new orders and prices paid as an early tell for the ISM cycle.
🏦 BMO — Morgan Stanley Q2 Earnings
The last of the mega-bank cluster after JPM, BAC, GS, C, and WFC today. Consensus $2.81 EPS on $19.3B revenue. Options are pricing a ~±4.4% move. Focus items: wealth management net new assets, IB pipeline commentary post-SpaceX IPO.
📕 2:00 PM ET — Fed Beige Book
Qualitative read across the twelve districts ahead of the next FOMC. Language on labor slack, pricing power, and commercial real estate is where the market pulls signal.
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Macro Regime (weekly - 7/12)
Tailwind holds. Risk appetite and policy carrying the load.
Where we stand
• Regime score: 61, tailwind
• History: 86th percentile — stronger than most days over the last five years
• Lead engine: Risk Appetite (82, strong)
• Drag engine: Inflation (42, soft) — soft here means cooling, which supports the regime
What’s driving it
• Risk Appetite doing the heavy lifting: VIX down 24% over 21 days to 15.03, QQQ/SPY and SMH/SPY both supportive. Fear is drained and tech is leading.
• Policy strong at 81: 2s10s curve steepened +88 bps, a signal the rate path is cooperating with risk assets.
• Growth improving at 68 with IWM/SPY and Industrials/SPY firming — leadership is broadening beyond mega-cap.
• Liquidity the soft spot at 46: 10Y at 4.57% (+4 bps) and DXY +1.4% are the pressure points. Not breaking, but thin.
Positioning read
• Regime favors cyclical tilt and beta over defensives, with policy tailwind supporting duration-sensitive risk.
• Argues against crowding into pure momentum — Growth/Value down 2% says leadership is rotating, not narrowing.
• Breadth percentile at 42% is the caveat: internals are constructive but not confirming the tape.
Watch next
• Liquidity subscore at 46. A DXY break higher or 10Y through 4.75% would tighten conditions and put the tailwind at risk; a rollover in either would clear the last obstacle.
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS, GAMEPLAN, and TOP IDEAS 7/14
THE MARKET PICTURE (5-pillars checklist)
1. $QQQE Price Action — coiling, still constructive
Squeezed into rising 21dma-structure. ATR Dist 21ema -0.21, 10wma +0.45. Not extended.
Right side tightening ahead of PPI. /ES with a DTL breakout & backtest shaping up, /NQ still basing but very tight.
2. Breadth Regime (Nasdaq MCSI / MCO) — still constructive
MCSI in an uptrend above rising 21dma-structure. Nasdaq still confirmed, breadth expanding.
MCO ~0. No thrust yet, but the base is holding.
3. Internals — risk-on
Credit Spreads (SHY/HYG) 1.03. Inside 21dma-structure, still declining.
VIX 16.50. Another lower high, rejected the declining 21dma-structure again. No fear bid.
4. Liquid Leaders Action — leaning risk-on
LL MCO hooking up from OS. That’s the tell. MCSI +0.69, still below 10dma but the hookup is what I want to see.
Cyber led today. Memory building the right side, still below declining 21dma-structure. Constructive, not confirmed.
5. Portfolio & NER Feedback — leaning in ahead of the catalyst
Busy day. Fresh layer pressing the ceiling, NE∆ not paid yet on the new stuff, book is very green with UER 78%, NE/CE 2.60x. Cushion intact.
Action: NEW TEM, DT / ADDED LLY / TRIMMED CRWD / CLOSED BROS, AVGO
Total Exposure 108% on margin. Comfortable because the core is doing the heavy lifting. If the fresh layer doesn’t get paid tomorrow, NER comes off.
THE GAMEPLAN
Tape is coiling into PPI. No guarantee here — still a base that’s been building for weeks, choppy, but the action is constructive. Cyber led today, memory trying to build a right side even below declining 21dma-structure, and the LL MCO hookup from OS is the piece I care about most. South Korea +7% overnight is a tailwind too. Internals right at the tipping point but not cracking.
I tried to get some tech back with the AVGO probe today. Didn’t like the close, closed it. Outside of AVGO and NVDA I don’t see a lot of compelling setups in semis yet, so I’ll wait. The groups that faded and rolled the last few weeks — semis, AI, photonics — I want to see them reclaim 21dma-structure and backtest cleanly before I re-engage. End of week or next week if they confirm. Not before.
The make-or-break is PPI + follow-through on the S&P push out of this base. Clean reaction and the Nasdaq pushes with it, I stay leaned in and let the fresh layer prove itself. It fails, NER comes off, back to raising cash and patience. Cushion is intact, nothing fragile yet — just need the new bucket to prove it.
TOP IDEAS FOCUS LIST
Where I focus on names sitting at rising 21dma-structure, using pullbacks for entries — not chasing.
$LLY (664) — Large Pharma / GLP-1
$BRKR (500) — Healthcare Services & Devices / Life Sciences Tools
$FROG (358) — Developer & DevOps Tools / DevOps & CI/CD
$TWST (203) — Healthcare / Diagnostics & Research / Genomics
$HIMS (2195) — Large Pharma & Specialty / GLP-1 / Obesity
$DT (2018) — AI Infrastructure / Database & Data Platform
$MTCH (782) — Communication Services / Social Media
$BB (545) — AI Applications & Analytics / AI Platform
PORTFOLIO UPDATE 7/14
Hey guys. Tape is coiling into PPI tomorrow.
Market picture
QQQE squeezed in 21dma-structure with MCSI still in an uptrend above rising 21dma-structure. LLs back in 21dma-structure with a potential nice MCO hook-up from OS. VIX keeps making lower highs with another rejection of the declining 21dma-structure. Credit Spreads still at the edge but inside structure, still declining.
/ES very constructive with a DTL breakout & backtest shaping up. /NQ still basing but today looked like another higher low on the now VERY tight right side. PPI tomorrow — that’s the catalyst to pop out, hopefully to upside.
So all in all, the tape is coiling. Right side is tightening across the board. I’m leaning in ahead of the catalyst, but staying honest about what the book is telling me.
On my book
Busy day. New TEM and DT, added to LLY, closed BROS and trimmed CRWD. Fresh layer is pressing the ceiling — NE Δ isn’t getting paid yet on the new stuff, and the book is very green with UER at 78% and NE/CE at 2.60x. That’s the read that matters right now.
Total Exposure 108%, on margin. I’m comfortable there because the core is doing the heavy lifting (CRWD sitting on real cushion, SNOW and TWST holding structure) and the setup ahead of PPI earns the aggression. If the fresh layer doesn’t start getting paid tomorrow, NER comes off — that’s the plan.
Cushion is intact, nothing fragile yet. Just need the new bucket to prove it.
Good luck guys ✌️
Today’s action:
NEW: TEM, DT
ADDED: LLY
TRIMMED: CRWD
OUT: BROS
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Themes Lab — 7/14 🧪
Top-down read on where leadership lives, where it’s cracking, and where rotation is building across 180+ themes.
LEADING THEMES (RS)
• Managed Care — RS 78 (#1)
• Genomics — RS 77 (#2)
• Cybersecurity — RS 75 (#3)
• Diagnostics — RS 72 (#4)
• GLP-1 / Obesity — RS 71 (#5)
Healthcare owning the top of the board — Managed Care, Genomics, Diagnostics and GLP-1 all pushing, with Cybersecurity carrying the tech side.
COOLING AT THE TOP
High-RS themes losing trajectory — leadership showing cracks, watch for failed setups (any trophies inside these themes are excluded from TOP SETUPS below for this reason):
• Connectivity Semiconductors — RS 70 (Breaking Down), key names losing structure: $ALAB, $SMTC
• CDN & Edge Computing — RS 69 (Breaking Down), key names losing structure: $NET, $AKAM
• Foundry — RS 56 (Breaking Down), key names losing structure: $INTC, $TSEM
TOP SETUPS @ 21dma-structure area
• $LLY 99 — GLP-1 / Obesity [Leading]
• $FROG 96 — DevOps & CI/CD [Leading]
• $PENG 96 — AI Servers & Hardware [Leading]
• $BRKR 88 — Life Sciences Tools [Emerging]
• $AMBA 88 — AI Infrastructure [Emerging]
• $RVTY 72 — Life Sciences Tools [Emerging]
• $VIK 89 — Travel [Leading]
• $CART 83 — Ad Measurement & Verification [Emerging]
• $AFRM 93 — Payments Infrastructure [Emerging]
• $ALHC 55 — Managed Care [Leading] (trophy carry)
THEMES SETTING UP (full breadth)
Watch the themes where the whole leadership board is coiling at the 21dma-structure area together — that’s where the cleanest follow-through tends to come from:
• Life Sciences Tools — $BRKR, $RVTY all setting up (2 of 5 leaders)
• AI Infrastructure — $AMD, $AMBA all setting up (2 of 5 leaders)
TAKEAWAY
Healthcare owns the tape — Managed Care, Genomics, Diagnostics, GLP-1 and Life Sciences all working. Semis cracking hard with Connectivity, Foundry and CDN breaking down. Rotation building into Life Sciences Tools and Payments Infrastructure — that’s the emerging book to watch.
LEADERS STALKLIST
Liquid Leaders Universe (top RS)
SNDK, BTSG, MU, WDC, HNGE, VSCO, BAND, CNC, GH, ICHR, BE, TXG, HUM, RSI, MOH, AMD, STX, TIGO, DELL, OSCR, LTH, FTNT, ILMN, EAT, MXL, TWST, ETSY, CIEN, NAVN, RELY, TENB, PENG, DDOG, CAKE, FROG, NTRA, SN, LNTH, INTC, SNOW, TSEM, PANW, MKSI, NET, XYZ, OKTA, VSAT, ANET, TWLO, LLY, ABNB, BIIB, ATI, AMAT, MTCH, BRKR, IRDM, BB, STM, CRWD, ACMR, VIK, ONTO, UCTT, ALAB, CAT, NBIS, KLIC, WULF, HWM, RVTY, ODFL, TT, LRCX, COMP, OMC, LSCC, S, TXN, ASML, CART, FORM, RBRK, TTWO, DOCN, DAL, VRT, VIAV, AFRM, TER, AVT, EXPE, RAL, GLW, FRO, DBX, NVT, CRDO, FDX, XPO
Liquid Leaders 21dma-structure Pullback scan (LONG)
SNDK, MU, WDC, ICHR, TSEM, AMD, STX, PENG, ATI, FROG, MKSI, AMAT, VSAT, BRKR, ACMR, BB, ONTO, ABNB, UCTT, LRCX, HWM, MTCH, VIK, LLY, TT, RVTY, JCI, FRO, SMTC, AVT, RAL, ODFL, ALHC, XPO, APH, CSCO, TOL, KLAC, TTWO, ADI, SYNA, FLR, ALGN, AMBA, SNX, MPWR, MCHP, MDB, W, DT
Liquid Leaders Episodic Pivot (EP) sorted by Gap (Potential new Leader/Catalyst)
None
REFERENCES
PT Wiki Is Now Live!!
After weeks of building, writing, editing, and organizing... I’ve finally wrapped up the Free PrimeTrading Wiki. This is the central place where I’ve documented my entire swing trading system — the mindset, process, setups, tools, and how I actually execute.
If you’ve ever wanted a full breakdown of how I approach the market day in and day out, this is it.
What’s Inside:
Alex's Swing Trading System – full framework, entries, sizing, market timing
TradersLab Scans – the exact filters I use to build my Focus List
Trading Psychology Reflections – key mindset shifts and lessons
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Education Articles – deep dives on Risk Management and Market Structure
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