Off the desk for three weeks
I’m taking three weeks off starting next week. No daily Prime Report and no pre-market EMS during that stretch. If I put on any trades, I’ll post them in Discord, but I won’t be at the screens the way I usually am.
Recharging a couple of times a year matters — for judgment, for patience, for the long game. The market rewards people who can sit on their hands as much as those who can pull the trigger, and that’s easier to remember after some time away from the chart.
Hope you all get some of the same. Enjoy the summer. I’ll be back with a report on Sunday, August 9th, and back to the normal schedule in the community on Monday morning.
📅 Tomorrow’s Key Events
A heavy data-and-earnings session: June retail sales anchors the macro read, a full 8:30 slate lands at once, and semis and streaming bookend the tape with $TSM before the open and $NFLX after the close.
💻 Pre-market — Taiwan Semiconductor ($TSM)
The AI/semi bellwether. Consensus: $3.81 EPS per ADR on ~$40.0B revenue, versus $2.47 and $30.1B a year ago. Market watches for a raise to the full-year 2026 revenue outlook, CoWoS advanced-packaging capacity, 3nm/2nm pricing, and gross margin guidance against the 65.5–67.5% range. Read-through to the entire AI-hardware complex.
📊 Pre-market — Abbott Laboratories ($ABT)
Healthcare bellwether. Consensus: $1.28 EPS. Focus on medical-device and diagnostics organic growth and any full-year guidance revision.
🛍️ 8:30 ET — Retail Sales (June)
The marquee macro print. Prior: +0.9% headline, +0.8% ex-autos (May). A firm June consensus was not consistent across sources — treat estimates as unconfirmed. Market focus is whether consumer spending momentum carried into quarter-end or cooled.
💼 8:30 ET — Initial Jobless Claims (week ending July 11)
Weekly labor pulse. No firm consensus locked across sources; the tape watches for any break from the recent range as a tell on labor softening.
🏭 8:30 ET — Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (July)
First regional factory read for July, released alongside retail sales. Watched for the new-orders and prices-paid components as an early activity and input-cost signal.
🏭 9:15 ET — Industrial Production / Capacity Utilization (June)
Secondary to the 8:30 cluster. Manufacturing output the key line.
💻 After close — Netflix ($NFLX)
Consensus: $0.79 EPS (~+10% y/y) on ~$12.6B revenue (+13.5% y/y). Focus on engagement trends, ad-tier momentum, and margin guidance. BofA models “largely in line” results. Sets the tone for the first mega-cap tech print of the season.
Notes: Import/export prices (8:30) and business inventories (10:00) also land but are second-tier. A Beige Book for the July 28–29 FOMC releases the day prior (July 15), not tomorrow. Fed speaker listings for the 16th conflicted across calendars, so none are called out here rather than guess.
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Macro Regime (weekly - 7/12)
Tailwind holds. Risk appetite and policy carrying the load.
Where we stand
• Regime score: 61, tailwind
• History: 86th percentile — stronger than most days over the last five years
• Lead engine: Risk Appetite (82, strong)
• Drag engine: Inflation (42, soft) — soft here means cooling, which supports the regime
What’s driving it
• Risk Appetite doing the heavy lifting: VIX down 24% over 21 days to 15.03, QQQ/SPY and SMH/SPY both supportive. Fear is drained and tech is leading.
• Policy strong at 81: 2s10s curve steepened +88 bps, a signal the rate path is cooperating with risk assets.
• Growth improving at 68 with IWM/SPY and Industrials/SPY firming — leadership is broadening beyond mega-cap.
• Liquidity the soft spot at 46: 10Y at 4.57% (+4 bps) and DXY +1.4% are the pressure points. Not breaking, but thin.
Positioning read
• Regime favors cyclical tilt and beta over defensives, with policy tailwind supporting duration-sensitive risk.
• Argues against crowding into pure momentum — Growth/Value down 2% says leadership is rotating, not narrowing.
• Breadth percentile at 42% is the caveat: internals are constructive but not confirming the tape.
Watch next
• Liquidity subscore at 46. A DXY break higher or 10Y through 4.75% would tighten conditions and put the tailwind at risk; a rollover in either would clear the last obstacle.
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS, GAMEPLAN, and TOP IDEAS 07/16
THE MARKET PICTURE (5-pillars checklist)
1. $QQQE Price Action — quiet, chopping at 21dma-structure
Sideways since June. Close 118.73, riding flat along 21dma-structure. -0.40x ATR off the 21ema, 0.16x off the 10wma. Not extended either way.
QQQ is the soft side. That’s the tech/semi/AI trade under distribution below declining 21dma-structure. QQQE holds up better because the other half of the tape is carrying it.
2. Breadth Regime (Nasdaq MCSI / MCO) — softening
MCSI -0.77, hooked under its 10dma (-0.79). Rolling since May.
MCO -0.21. Below zero, no thrust. Broad tape leaking, not breaking.
3. Internals — risk-on
Credit Spreads 1.03, drifting lower along the band. No widening. That’s the tell.
VIX 15.67. Downside reversal off declining 21dma-structure rejection. Both down = risk-on.
4. Liquid Leaders Action — still constructive, breadth softening
Price holding. LL Composite riding rising 21dma-structure, gave back 1.21% but structure intact. Rotation’s healthy: healthcare and software running the tape, semis cracking (CDN & Edge, Connectivity Semis breaking down).
Breadth cooling. MCSI 0.65, back under its 10dma (0.89). MCO -0.84, negative. Cleanest setups clustering at 21dma-structure in Genomics, DevOps, Life Sciences Tools.
5. Portfolio & NER Feedback — bifurcated rotation day
April leaders in memory, AI, optical, photonics under distribution. Leading groups and themes still working. Two-sided tape.
Action: NEW $AVGO, $FROG / ADDED none / TRIMMED none / CLOSED $TEM, $DT
NE/CE 2.97x, cushion’s not the biggest. NER and delta ran too high pre-close, so I closed TEM and DT to sit light side of margin overnight. Fresh layer on, NE Δ negative, not getting paid yet. Not a market call. RS and feedback were fine.
THE GAMEPLAN
Got the exposure I want. Not looking to add here. Near fully exposed, just a touch on margin, and that’s where I want to sit. The PF is built unless I want to rotate into new merchandise.
What I’m waiting on is the tech/semi/AI trade. Can it tighten up, reclaim structure, set up again? Right now, no. Still early, still under distribution below declining 21dma-structure.
Also of note, my vacation starts next week, three weeks out. Don’t want to be overexposed to that. So bias is to stay steady, manage what’s working, keep NER in check, no hunting. Defense kicks in if internals crack or the leading themes (my exposure) lose their 21dma-structure. Until then, holding the line.
TOP IDEAS FOCUS LIST
Leading theme, and leading names I see on pullbacks into rising 21dma-structure. Not chasing, letting them come.
$TWST (226) — Genomics & Gene Therapy
$OSCR (387) — Managed Care
$FROG (438) — DevOps & CI/CD
$BB (770) — AI Applications & Analytics
$LLY (835) — GLP-1 / Obesity
$AVGO (2447) — AI Infrastructure / Semiconductors
PORTFOLIO UPDATE 7/15
Hey guys — bifurcated tape today. April leaders in memory, AI, opticals, photonics all under distribution, trading below declining 21dma-structure. Other side of the market, leading groups and themes still working.
Market picture:
Nasdaq weak while SPX and Russell holding up. QQQE below 21dma-structure and MCSI hook-down — the tech/semis/AI trade is under distribution. Using /ES as the leading index here.
LLs still holding structure. RSP/SPX still holding structure too. VIX solid downside reversal off declining 21dma-structure rejection. Same on Credit Spreads.
Dell and AMD — last standing in growth. Shook out hard today, held their 21dma, bought decently.
So all in all: using themes to stay positioned in the right groups. Testing ONE in tech with AVGO — MC getting inflow, good RS. AAPL new high, AMZN/MSFT popping off structure. Added FROG today too.
On my book:
Fresh layer is on but not getting paid yet. NE Δ negative — new stuff didn’t give me the traction I want. Book is top heavy on new, NE/CE 2.97x, cushion isn’t the biggest.
NER and delta were pushing too high pre-close. Closed TEM and DT to bring both down and stay light side of margin overnight. Not a market call — positions showed RS today and feedback is good.
Good luck guys ✌️
Today’s action:
NEW: AVGO, FROG
ADDED:
OUT: TEM, DT
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Themes Lab — 7/15 🧪
Top-down scan across 180+ themes — where leadership sits, where it’s cracking, and where rotation is building.
LEADING THEMES (RS)
Managed Care — RS 82 (#1)
Genomics — RS 77 (#2)
Cybersecurity — RS 76 (#3)
CRO + AI — RS 76 (#4)
DevOps & CI/CD — RS 74 (#5)
Healthcare and software running the tape as leadership rotates out of semis — Genomics +34 RS in 8 weeks is the fastest climb on the board.
COOLING AT THE TOP
High-RS themes losing trajectory — leadership showing cracks, watch for failed setups (any trophies inside these themes are excluded from TOP SETUPS below for this reason):
CDN & Edge Computing — RS 70 (Breaking Down), key names losing structure: $NET, $FSLY
Connectivity Semiconductors — RS 66 (Breaking Down), key names losing structure: $MXL, $ALAB
TOP SETUPS @ 21dma-structure area
$LLY 99 — GLP-1 / Obesity [Leading]
$ILMN 97 — Genomics [Leading]
$FROG 96 — DevOps & CI/CD [Leading]
$LQDA 93 — Rare Disease [Leading]
$BTSG 92 — Health Services [Leading]
$HWM 99 — Aerospace Components [Emerging]
$AFRM 93 — Payments Infrastructure [Emerging]
$BRKR 88 — Life Sciences Tools [Emerging]
$TTWO 89 — Gaming [Emerging]
$ODFL 57 — Logistics [Emerging]
THEMES SETTING UP (full breadth)
Watch the themes where the whole leadership board is coiling at the 21dma-structure area together — that’s where the cleanest follow-through tends to come from:
Genomics — $ILMN, $TWST both setting up (2 of 3 leaders)
DevOps & CI/CD — $FROG, $GTLB both setting up (2 of 3 leaders)
Life Sciences Tools — $BRKR, $RVTY both setting up (2 of 3 leaders)
TAKEAWAY
Healthcare and biotech running the show — Managed Care, Genomics, GLP-1, and Life Sciences Tools all leading or emerging together. Semis cracking with CDN & Edge and Connectivity Semis both Breaking Down. Cleanest rotation to watch: biotech tools and payments infrastructure.
LEADERS STALKLIST
Liquid Leaders Universe (top RS)
SNDK, VSCO, BTSG, LQDA, MU, GH, TXG, BAND, ICHR, HUM, ACHC, RELY, CNC, HNGE, PANW, WDC, ATI, ETSY, TSEM, TWST, NTRA, OKTA, FTNT, DDOG, NAVN, TIGO, CRWD, TENB, AMD, SN, MXL, IVZ, ILMN, SNOW, STX, OSCR, MOH, VSAT, IBKR, DELL, MTCH, FROG, XYZ, CAKE, ASML, INTC, PENG, AEHR, IRDM, JBHT
Liquid Leaders 21dma-structure Pullback scan (LONG)
BTSG, LQDA, BAND, ICHR, ATI, TWST, NAVN, AMD, ILMN, OSCR, FROG, MKSI, ABNB, HWM, AMAT, BB, TXRH, UCTT, BRKR, LLY, VIK, RVTY, ONTO, TT, OC, FRO, TTWO, JCI, RAL, CART, EXPE, DAL, AFRM, ALHC, ODFL, TOL, APH, ALGN, FLR, IOT, W, DE, FSLY, GEN, DT, RDDT, SW, CVNA, AS, VFC
Liquid Leaders Episodic Pivot (EP) sorted by Gap (Potential new Leader/Catalyst)
None
REFERENCES
PT Wiki Is Now Live!!
After weeks of building, writing, editing, and organizing... I’ve finally wrapped up the Free PrimeTrading Wiki. This is the central place where I’ve documented my entire swing trading system — the mindset, process, setups, tools, and how I actually execute.
If you’ve ever wanted a full breakdown of how I approach the market day in and day out, this is it.
What’s Inside:
Alex's Swing Trading System – full framework, entries, sizing, market timing
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