Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist report - 11/13
GDB closed at -152 as we digested Friday's move and waited for tomorrow morning's CPI report to pick a direction.
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Tomorrow morning at 8:30 will be the awaited CPI report. We are still looking at multiple scenarios with ES/NQ being extended due to recent Mega/Large-caps leadership while the broad market was pulling back in the last week. Now that the broad market is trying to confirm a higher low from here, it will be interesting to see if we see a rotation out of the Mege/Large-caps into the broader market (which would be confirmed by PTMM).
We are seeing multiple encouraging clues that make me believe we’ll see a broadening out of the market following CPI tomorrow. This remains to be seen, but it would be very constructive for opening up a window of opportunity in the broader & growth market. We should get or confirmation tomorrow.
GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
S&P500 (ES_F)
ES retested the 4417$ & DTL level today and held. We closed unchanged in an indecision/waiting action before tomorrow morning's CPI report.
Tomorrow, we’ll want to see that 4417$ level, or even 4390$, hold on to an initial negative reaction to CPI.
On the upside, if we can reclaim today’s high, the 4468$ level is the next potential resistance.
We are still very extended from the recent move, and some sideways or pullback action would not be a surprise and even very healthy.
According to Goldman's CTA update for North America (1-week horizon): Trend followers will buy +45.5B in a flat tape, +47.9B in an up tape, and +21.2B in a down tape.
NASDAQ (NQ_F)
Inside day for NQ
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F)
Inside day, as we try to breakout off that retest channel.
OTHERS
Inside day on QQQE.
IWO is showing that same setup, with a higher low attempt.
PrimeTrading Market Model #PTMM
PTMM is back at a RED market signal (🟥)
GDB closed at -152, as we digested Friday's move and waiting for tomorrow morning CPI report to pick a direction.
Price -0.25% (flat) as we continue building at the 21dma
NNL improved again, with PTHL curling up
MCSI back uptrend and still above 10dma.
Slightly negative daily_momo
10-day ratio still remain positive
After Friday's higher low attempt on breadth thrust, I wanted to see a continuation higher today. A close above Friday's high on decent breadth would have been a nice confirmation of the higher low and potential broadening out.
I think that today was only indecision before CPI report tomorrow, so I won't weight today's action as positive or negative and will give real consideration to tomorrow's action instead.
We still saw good & constructive action in focuslist names, and mainly some small-cap and outside tech sectors trying to turn around and make a higher low here...which is constructive to see in that HL scenario. I lean definitely more bullish than bearish here, but anything could happen following CPI tomorrow.
Action/Rules:
SHORT trades allowed OR CASH
1/2 positions only (10%)
Trimming 1/3 at 1R & 2R
Keeping 1/3 as a runner position
New open risk > 0% (meaning all new exposure is financed and paid for with trims)
Alex's gameplan:
With what I see on RTY, setups, internals, etc...I am still trading in anticipation of the ORANGE/YELLOW signal.
I got decent traction in new exposure today
Still have around -0.4% of NOR today that I'll want to de-risk before opening new exposure tomorrow
If good reaction to CPI, I'll look to increase exposure, but I don't want to go above 50%, considering the extension level in NQ/ES. Managing risk cautiously here.
Internals
MMTW (Stocks > 20dma - market extension)
Reclaimed the potential support area. We have room to the upside.
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma - market extension)
This chart is one of the most speaking right now, as stocks above the 50dma, historically a great way to gauge market breadth, are setting up very nicely for potential supportive action and continuation higher move.
The market bounced at the higher low area, the same as the last three market bottoms.
Tight channel as we retest the correction swingH's structure area. Potential support area with channel breakout today before CPI
Inside day.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
Important bounce as clearly bond market is nervous before tomorrow’s CPI. Volatility is expected.
10Y Bond Yields (daily)
After a sharp pullback, we are finding support at the 50dma and being squeezed by the declining 21d. We are building that tight range between 4.66 & 4.48%…which the break will give us good information of the Yield’s next move.
Tomorrow should give us that confirmation with CPI.
US dollar index (DXY)
We are still retesting the base area, and 21/50dma after breaking down from it last week. If we can reject that base area and get a continuation lower, that would be very constructive.
Tomorrow should give us that confirmation with CPI.
Another strong move down on Friday, as we rejected the tight range we were forming after last week’s bounce. We remain below all kma’s, and approaching the very big 1.52 level.
A break of that area would be a big character change for this entire bear market.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
BTC is really extended, above all kma’s…but the trend seems very strong for now.
SECTORS & THEMES ANALYSIS
FFTY/ARKK leading
Mega-caps RED & lagging
Small-cap did well
Energy/Healthcare/Staples... 360deg rotation from Friday's action.
themes:
URA & NLR on fire & only leading sectors in the top 10 today
Something's up in Medical devices & Equip.
LEADERS (TOP10 - Overall/Weekly/Monthly/52w low/52w high)
No big changes in the top10
10 leading themes charts (w/ pivots):
1 Semiconductors SMH
inside day
2 Uranium URA
Breakout from 27.09 pivot & potential continuation higher
3 Internet PNQI
4 Software IGV
5 Artificial Intelligence & Technology AIQ
6 Blockchain Technology BLOK
At support
7 Nuclear NLR
8 Gaming & eSports ESPO
Reclaimed base level
9 Cloud Computing SKYY
77.09 still acitonnable
10 Social Media SOCL
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FOCUSLIST
Positions could be taken from the Stalk List on PB.
LONG FOCUSLIST
AI daily/130m - C3.AI, INC. - Alert: 27.67, SL: 26.04
Turnaround stock in a leading theme (AIQ). After breaking out above the 50d & 21dma from that tight wedge, we pulled back to retest kma’s last week and traded in that tight retest channel. If we can reclaim Thursday’s high, we could have a good swing into next earnings.
UPDATE: DTL breakout today. Let’s see if we can reclaim swingH pivot.
TSLA daily/130m - TESLA, INC. - Alert: 226.37, SL: 211.6101
Today action confirmed the higher low, as we reclaimed the 21dma and popped above the recent action DTL. We are still bery early within that bigger base, but I like how we showed a lot of RS today, especially when Mega-caps were RED, and how we are setting up in a similar way than last May before its big run.
ROKU daily/130m - ROKU, INC. - Alert: 86.09, SL: 79.5
Building a tight range above kma's and base level following recent PEG. 86.09 is the level. 84.51$ as intraday anticipation entry
DOCN daily/130m - DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. - Alert: 25.77, SL: 24.6
Turnaround stock, as we popped above 50dma & correction channel with last earnings catalyst, then retesting kma’s in a tight channel.
UPDATE: DTL breakout today. Let’s see if we can reclaim swingH pivot.
BLDR daily/130m - BUILDERS FIRSTSOURCE, INC. - Alert: 126.13, SL: 121.43
Homebuilders are attempting a turn here, and BLDR is the top name to watch as it led the last theme uptrend last summer. We are retesting kma’s following the channel breakout and 50dma reclaim.
UPDATE: Still inside tight channel.
MDB daily/130m - MONGODB, INC. - Alert: 384.15, SL: 374.1
Strong breakout and 50dma reclaim on last week’s EP. We are now retesting the base level & building a tight range area to play the continuation move higher.
UPDATE: Failed to hold pivot and decided to move to 384.15$ which now seems more relevant.
NET daily/130m - CLOUDFLARE, INC. - Alert: 64.25, SL: 62.39
We are still within the base, but we saw strong action on the last earnings report, and I like how we pulled back in that tight channel and low volume on the base top-level retest last week. If we can push from here, it could be a great anticipation entry before the base breakout.
UPDATE: DTL breakout today. Let’s see if we can reclaim swingH pivot.
SDGR daily/130m - SCHRODINGER, INC. - Alert: 27.81, SL: 26.57
It's a more risky trade, but this name proved to be a leader earlier this year. After the tight correction downtrend channel, we broke out on the earnings report reaction, reclaimed the 21dma, and stopped at the 50dma retest. Since then, we have rejected the 50dma in a very tight channel down to the 21dma in a constructive volume pattern. It could offer a strong momentum move if we break higher from here.
UPDATE: DTL breakout today. Let’s see if we can reclaim swingH pivot.
CRSP daily/130m - CRISPR Therapeutics Ltd - Alert: 53.61, SL: 48.5501
Biotech theme making a potential higher low today, some names in the sector are interesting if one is playing biotech names. CRSP retesting the 21dma on a tight channel following earnings strong catalyst for the correction channel breakout.
FYBR daily/130m - FRONTIER COMMUNICATIONS PARENT, INC. - Alert: 19.91, SL: 18.916
FYBR still setting up from that stage 1 base level & 21dma retest. We are still in that tight channel following at failed attempt today. Daily pivot at 19.91$, with a potential intraday anticipation entry at 19.47.
SHORT FOCUSLIST (simplified)
LEADERS LIST
Finbox.io, my data provider, is down again tonight… Working on the issue with them.
SCANS
Finbox.io, my data provider, is down again tonight… Working on the issue with them.
Stocks > 50dma & +/- 3% from 21dma #scan - Sorted by RS (potential 21dma PB LONG setups 🐂)
ST extended stocks > 50dma & +/- 5% from 21dma #scan - Sorted by RS (StalkList 👀)
Stocks < 50dma & +/- 3% from 21dma #scan (21dma PB SHORT setups) 🐻
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
Closing in at 32% exposure and kept NOR > -0.5%.
+0.32% on new exposure, not bad for a slow day.
Raised ZS SL at 168.40 we made a new higher high and used new confirmed structed low to raise TOR.
INTRADAY/CLOSED TRADES:
Important economic news/events (weekly)
PRIME MODEL SPREADSHEET (PT_database)
Access to the PT_database 👇
REFERENCES
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Love your deep and chirurgical analysis of MMFI compared to previous bottom. HAGD!