Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist - 01/09
Market digesting yesterday's bounce, and waiting for Thursday's CPI report.
Enjoy tonight’s report!
Alex ✌️
Tonight’s daily report content
PrimeTrading Market Model #PTMM + Takeaways
General Market Analysis: NASDAQ - S&P 500 - RUSSEL 2K - OTHERS, including my daily levels & my bullish and bearish scenarios
Market Internals
Sectors & Themes Analysis
Daily Focuslist including setups, alert levels & explanation (long & short)
Leaders list + Scans (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
My Portfolio Update
Economic Calendar
PrimeTrading Market Model #PTMM + Takeaways
PTMM is on a YELLOW market signal (🟨)
Key Takeaways:
PTMM closed at -387, which appears to be a digestion of yesterday's move. Selling was controlled and light overall.
NNH still increasing
MCSI hooked down
Negative daily_momo, but 5-day still going up.
MT/LT_momo hooked down
Overall, I see today as either digestion of the bounce attempt or the reversal that could lead to a lower high and continuation lower if we follow through down on good volume tomorrow. We should gain more clarity tomorrow, or maybe Thursday, with CPI before the market opens.
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
S&P500 (ES_F)
We couldn’t follow through right away today, as the market digested yesterday’s bounce.
Tomorrow/Thursday should give us more information as if we follow through higher and push to new highs from this pullback…or we get a reversal forming a lower high and potentially a 2nd leg on that pullback.
Keep in mind that on Thursday morning, we have the CPI report, which always moves the market. We might have another weird choppy day tomorrow.
NASDAQ (NQ_F)
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F)
Market Internals
MMTW (Stocks > 20dma - ST market extension)
Back below 50%.
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma - MT market extension)
Bounce at 21dma
MMTH (Stocks > 200dma - LT market extension)
Bounce at July’s high & 21dma area.
VIX is retesting the key 12.75$ level and the recent UTL structure as we also break below the 21dma today.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
Going in the right direction so far.
10Y Bond Yields (daily)
Tight wedge…probably waiting on CPI report.
US dollar index (DXY)
Rejection & continuation lower? Tight action below 102.93.
Back below all kma’s. Bullish sign for me.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
A lot of volatility around the BTC ETF saga today… We retested the base level and still holding above 45k.
SECTORS & THEMES ANALYSIS
Large/Mega strong, but riskier assets pulling back
Staples leading...
Energy slammed again
URA strong bounce, will look for continuation
Cancer, CYBR & Softs super strong again today
Leading themes led today... good
LEADERS (TOP10 - Overall/Weekly/Monthly/52w low/52w high)
10 leading themes charts (w/ pivots):
1 Cancer CNCR
Base breakout follow-through despite being super extended.
2 Biotech XBI
Base breakout follow-through despite being super extended.
3 Blockchain Technology BLOK
Tight area at the 21dma with higher lows. Like this setup.
4 Semiconductors SMH
21dma reclaim
5 Homebuilders XHB
6 Software IGV
7 Cloud Computing SKYY
8 Internet PNQI
9 Cybersecurity CIBR
10 Uranium URA
Sectors & Themes ideas:
FOCUSLIST
APP daily/W/130m - APPLOVIN CORPORATION - Alert: 39.31, SL: 37.95
Still same setup as last night with an inside day just below the 21dma. Getting very tight below the 39.31 at the 267ema & GB (notice this theme with today's consolidation).
IONQ daily/W/130m - IONQ, INC. - Alert: 12.57, SL: 11.95
Same setup as last night as we built tight inside day below the 12.57 & 21dma today.
CVNA daily/W/130m - CARVANA CO. - Alert: 49.03, SL: 44.5
Same setup as last night here as well, with an inside day as we continue to trade around the 21dma.
SPT daily/W/130m - Sprout Social Inc - Alert: 58.76, SL: 56.47
21dma pullback as make a higher high just above the 50dma and still in the current pullback channel. We are getting super tight action at the GB/267ema as we squeezed into the 58.76$ pivot by EOD. Looks ready if we can push from here.
DOCU daily/W/130m - DOCUSIGN, INC. - Alert: 56.48, SL: 54.76
Same kind of setup as we made 4 tight days at the 21dma with an inside day today. We are building pressure below the 267ema and squeezed by the GB just below the 56.48 pivot.
CLS daily/W/130m - CELESTICA INC. - Alert: 28.94, SL: 27.94
Tight area as we retest base level & 21dma with now 5 tight days. We are now very tight below the 28.94$ pivot.
DOCN daily/W/130m - DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. - Alert: 36.58, SL: 34.41
21dma pullback and yesterday was our pb breakout. Today was a nice inside day as we built tight price action just below GB/267 intraday. 36.58$ or 36.86 for an entry.
SCANS
21dma pullback scan
INSM PCVX RNG CCL CUK FRSH GLBE DOCU COHR KSS SMAR SPT UA CHGG WAL ABR GTLB SLG UAA BNTX CC CLS FOUR STNG VNO FL
Pullback-tight scan
BBIO DOCN EVH INSM MAC PCVX RNG CCL CUK KRC ZION AX DOCU COHR KSS SMAR ACAD BXP WAL ABR EYPT MLTX SLG BNTX CC FOUR ITCI STNG VNO FL
Continuation breakout scan
None
Bigger the base, higher in space scan
MNDY APP
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
No trades today. I quickly recognized the potential choppy/digestion action and decided to sit this one out.
5R target hit on CRWD add & PGNY & PDD - now all runners
From 110% to 92% exposure - I want to continue this selling into strength with INSW & META which should bring me around 70% exposure.
+1.25% ec today. Existing positions did all the work.
Great discipline today as I continue to apply my new playbook. Being more aggressive in oversold area then holding on adding exposure until market is back in that buy area again. As I gain more cushion and I'm able to raise my SL, I'll make sure to secure more profit (with raised SL) as/if we continue this uptrend.
Added Open Heat by position today to the PF spreadsheet. Helps recognize where raising SL is critical.
INTRADAY/CLOSED TRADES:
Important economic news/events (weekly)
REFERENCES
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