Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist report - 11/26
GDB closed the short holiday week on a good note at +338.
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Last week was a short holiday week, with relatively low volume overall, but we saw great action with only one negative day as the market continued to grind higher above all kma's.
With ES/NQ being significantly extended, I like to see the broad market taking the lead as this rally continues to broaden out with PTMM showing there is no extreme extension like on the major indices. MMTW is still extended, but with MMFI making a new high Friday, this might mean that the broad market has more fuel in the tank. We'll see, day by day.
I remain in a tactical trading mode, where I quickly finance & limit my new open risk while I raise my stop & take profits along the way. With what looks like a lockout rally, that's the only way to participate in a risk-first approach.
GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
S&P500 (ES_F)
After bouncing off the 4534$ area, we closed the week Friday (1/2 day) with an inside day.
We remain above that key support area but also remain very extended above all kma’s. Some consolidation or even pullback would only be healthy to set up a larger move into year-end.
So far, there is no red flag apart from being extended & overbought, so I have a feeling this market will snap back down unannounced and very quickly. Make sure to manage risk tight in this type of extended market.
NASDAQ (NQ_F)
Still has that rising flag look right into the base level while being extended. Not the type of structure I like to see here. We either reject that base level and start a pullback, or get even more extended with a breakout to new highs.
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F)
Still building a nice tight wedge above the 50dma after the impressive breadth thrust we saw 2w ago.
Looks very healthy to me, and more clues that we might see rotation out of mega-caps into those smaller & riskier assets.
OTHERS
QQQE: Same rising wedge look. The break of that pattern will tell a lot about this broader market action.
IWO: Love how we see price & volume contraction on IWO into the recent swingH pivot. That’s the type of squeeze that normally proceeds a strong move. Watching that 225.75$ pivot & UTL very closely for direction confirmation.
PrimeTrading Market Model #PTMM
PTMM remains on a YELLOW market signal (🟨)
GDB closed the small holiday week on a good note at +338.
Price +0.53% - Another positive day, and the 21dma will reclaim the 50dma.
45% up day, with 1.39 U/D
NNH are stable
PTHL approaching the 21dma
MCSI still has a strong uptrend
Action/Rules:
New LONG exposure allowed
1/2 positions only (10%)
Trimming 1/3 at 2R & 3R
Keeping 1/3 as a runner position
PF exposure max = 50%
New open risk > - 0.50%
Alex's gameplan:
If my positions are making new highs, I'll be able to raise some stocks and decrease my open heat, which is beginning to be a bit high for my taste. If I can reduce it by 1-2%, I would be more comfortable to open additional long exposure.
I still want to be very tactical and keep NOR below -0.5% if I take a new position.
IF POSITIONS & PF are working, I continue to play setup by setup.
Internals
MMTW (Stocks > 20dma - market extension)
We remain in that overbought area and refuse to break even after a lower high last week. Very strong market…
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma - market extension)
Impressive action on Friday, as the broad market breadth made a NEW HIGH and negated the lower high structure. That market is strong AF. Don’t be complacent, but this market is certainly in lockout rally mode if we continue from here.
VIX just broke down from the 12.73$ 2023 low level, which was a key level I was watching for a reversal. That’s a significant break.
That said, this move was on a holiday 1/2 trading day, so I will take it will a grain of salt and will want to see confirmation tomorrow.
On a light day, this could be a shakeout as we reclaim that area tomorrow and start that pullback. But if we can stay below, we could really start a low volatility & strong bull market going forward.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
Below all kma’s.
10Y Bond Yields (daily)
4.48% pivot reclaim as we breakout from the recent pullback channel. I’ll be looking the 21/50dma for a potential reclaim.
US dollar index (DXY)
Strong downtrend below all kma’s. Action around that 103.43 base level will tell a lot about the bounce potential or downtrend continuation.
Credit Spreads broke the 2023 low on Friday. That’s either the local top with a shakeout below that level, or we’re really shifting into a different bull market we’ve seen nothing yet.
One thing is sure: this is a significant break.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
BTC looking very constructive here as we retested & rejected the 38k range level on low volume this weekend. We seem to form a tight channel consolidation with a potential 21dma retest. If we can push above the 38k level, crypto could really run & pick up speed, IMO.
SECTORS & THEMES ANALYSIS
ARKK/Micro leading
Mega/Large lagging
The Mega to Broad market rotation we want to see. Still early but we see it more & more recently.
BLOK & China leading
Miners still strong
URA & Cyber showed good RS
LEADERS (TOP10 - Overall/Weekly/Monthly/52w low/52w high)
No changes in top10
10 leading themes charts (w/ pivots):
1 Semiconductors SMH
Potential wedge pullback as we retest the recent gap area & 21dma.
2 Internet PNQI
Extended
3 Software IGV
Extended above all kma’s.
4 Uranium URA
5 Artificial Intelligence & Technology AIQ
Still has that rising wedge look into the base level. That’s not a structure I like to see into a key level like that while being extended.
6 Cloud Computing SKYY
7 Homebuilders XHB
We continue to trade in that tight range as kma’s are slowly catching up.
8 Blockchain Technology BLOK
Finally broke out of that tight consolidation/wedge of the last few weeks. This could really spark more buying in the sector. Miners are really looking good with Friday’s breakout.
9 Social Media SOCL
10 Nuclear NLR
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FOCUSLIST
Positions could be taken from the Stalk List on PB.
LONG FOCUSLIST
ONON daily/130m/10m - On Holding Ltd - Alert: 28.91, SL: 27.82
Still building nicely below that 28.91$ recent swingH pivot and above all kma's as we continue to make higher lows. If we can reclaim that pivot, we will confirm upside continuation.
YOU daily/130m/10m - CLEAR SECURE, INC. - Alert: 20.44, SL: 19.69
Wedge above all kma's getting tight with a great DTL retest & strong close on Friday. We continue to build higher lows since we made that initial 50dma retest following earnings. Like that setup.
SPR daily/130m/10m - SPIRIT AEROSYSTEMS HOLDINGS, INC. - Alert: 26.38, SL: 25.53
A new name in the FL. I like how we build higher lows into that 36.38 post-earnings high pivot. Dips are constantly bought and the volume profile looks very good since we reclaimed the 50dma. A Defense name, so could be an interesting theme to play.
BLDR daily/130m/10m - BUILDERS FIRSTSOURCE, INC. - Alert: 134.79, SL: 132.36
Still building nicely below that 134.79$ pivot. Friday would have been the shakeout needed as we undercut the UTL and closed right at the pivot. top10 theme, that's the kind of play we want to be involved in.
U daily/130m/10m - Unity Software Inc - Alert: 30.13, SL: 28.48
Back in the FL as we continue to build nicely in that tight channel on the correction channel DTL & 50dma retest. Still a turnaround stock with more overhead supply, but could be an explosive swing if it works from here.
XP daily/130m/10m - XP Inc. - Alert: 23.68, SL: 23.05
A name that we traded in the last cycle and was trading very cleanly and fast. I like how we reclaimed the 50dma following the last earnings, and now retesting it with tight trading just below the 23.68 swingH pivot.
TSLA daily/130m/10m - TESLA, INC. - Alert: 243.62, SL: 232.33
Still have to remain in FL as we are still building in a tight range above all kma's and holding the recent swingH pivot as well. CARZ showing RS, and we're not seeing the 50dma rejection we could have seen on TSLA here.
PLTR daily/130m/10m - PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC. - Alert: 20.44, SL: 18.93
This one needs to be in FL as we're getting the real opportunity to get in. Following ER, it didn't really give clean entry except for Nov. 10 which we missed. Now we get a clean 21dma & base-level retest to play. We see volume drying up following Tuesday's strong reversal that probably shook a lot of ppl out. I would look at that 130m wedge breakout for an early anticipation entry in the recent leading AI stock. Also a strong theme with AIQ being in the top 10.
BMBL daily/130m/10m - BUMBLE INC. - Alert: 14.47, SL: 13.96
A very similar setup to U. Initial thrust is done out of correction channel structure, now retesting kma's. (WBPB)
SHORT FOCUSLIST (simplified)
LEADERS LIST
Finbox.io, my data provider, is down again tonight… Working on the issue with them.
SCANS
Finbox.io, my data provider, is down again tonight… Working on the issue with them.
Stocks > 50dma & +/- 3% from 21dma #scan - Sorted by RS (potential 21dma PB LONG setups 🐂)
ST extended stocks > 50dma & +/- 5% from 21dma #scan - Sorted by RS (StalkList 👀)
Stocks < 50dma & +/- 3% from 21dma #scan (21dma PB SHORT setups) 🐻
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
Opened AFRM this morning and already 2R target hit. Trade fully financed (OR = 0%)
That brings me into EOD with all risk financed at PF level. NOR = 0%.
I decided to closed AA to reduced my open heat and not enough cushion and not seeing the push I wanted to see.
Closing the week at 34% exposure
Closing the week +0.7% ec, which I could have done way better if not chopping myself with trade without traction earlier in the week. That's the C-game part that I really want to work on in the next days/weeks. Overall my C-game is way closer than my A-game than it was before, but I like to find out new area to improve so that I can really reach another level. Overall still very good MTD & ec going steady higher is what I want to see here.
INTRADAY/CLOSED TRADES:
Important economic news/events (weekly)
PRIME MODEL SPREADSHEET (PT_database)
Access to the PT_database 👇
REFERENCES
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